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Oil Won’t Last Forever – What happens when it runs out?
Oilprice.com ^ | 08/01/2010 | Claude Salhani

Posted on 01/08/2010 3:28:38 PM PST by Faketan

One nagging question that the industrial world has been asking itself since the discovery of the first oil well is what happens when the wells begin to run dry. The answer is relatively simple to imagine. We had a dry run, so to speak, when Dubai’s economy tanked a few years ago. And although the causes of Dubai’s ills and ails were financial and not oil related, the drama which unfolded gave us a watered-down version of what might transpire if and when the oil wells stop producing.

But before we run the Armageddon tape that the world will stop functioning because of lack of oil, let’s all take a deep breath and think again. The oil companies, the people who manufacture cars and airplanes and legions of scientists and inventors have all been planning for that day. And as far-fetched as it might seem to some of us, that day will undoubtedly come, very probably within our lifetime.

So what is likely to happen? First, the car manufacturers and people who build commercial aircrafts, the two largest consumers of fossil fuels have no doubt plans on what their next generation models will look like and what they will run on. Already some car manufacturers are producing hybrid cars that run partially on electricity. What will transpire will be a massive turn to nuclear energy. It may not be the safest of energies, however nuclear energy remains the cleanest. Or perhaps solar and wind.

So your average American will still be able to drive to the drive-thru bank and restaurant. The above average Chinese will still be able to afford his car and the average European will still be able to enjoy Sunday outings with Grandma sitting in the back seat between the bambinos.

What will change – and drastically so – will be the social-economic face of much of the oil producing countries as well as other nations, where overnight tens of thousands of workers will find themselves suddenly unemployed, broke, and with practically no prospects for any future whatsoever. And herewith lies the danger of a social eruption of near Biblical proportions. Think if you will of the ripple effect that would occur if one of the major oil producers stopped producing.

Take the United Arab Emirates (UAE) one of the major oil-producing states in the Gulf where the local population is outnumbered five-to one. Out of a population of some 4.8 million less than 20 % are nationals of the country; and even among the nationals, a good percentage very probably hail from other neighboring countries, such as Palestine, Lebanon or other countries in the region. The bulk of the population -- a whopping 50 percent -- are from the Indian sub-continent; from India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Balouchistan or from Iran and Afghanistan.

The same holds true in the rest of the Gulf Cooperation Council states; Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman.

Rest of article at: Full article at: Oil Wells Run Dry


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Miscellaneous; Science
KEYWORDS: abiogenicoil; dubai; newbie; oil; oilcompanies; oilwells; peakoil; sniff
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1 posted on 01/08/2010 3:28:41 PM PST by Faketan
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To: Faketan

Something similar to what happened when whale oil ran out, I suppose.


2 posted on 01/08/2010 3:29:44 PM PST by Mr. Lucky
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To: Faketan

There is a growing “evidence” that oil is actually produced by the planet. IOW, It is renewed. The pace may or may not be enough to keep up with demand but we may never “run out”.


3 posted on 01/08/2010 3:32:17 PM PST by RobRoy (The US today: Revelation 18:4)
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To: Faketan
1. We have been using oil for over 150 years.
2. We have been using only the easy to get oil, the “tip of the iceberg” easily obtained.
3. We haven't run out of that.
4. Reproducible experiments have shown that petroleum forms rapidly when carbons are exposed to high heat and pressure - a condition that occurs naturally under the ocean floor in some regions. Oil is still being formed today.
4 posted on 01/08/2010 3:35:26 PM PST by MrEdd (Heck? Geewhiz Cripes, thats the place where people who don't believe in Gosh think they aint going.)
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To: Faketan

From what I can tell,

The Earth will run out of people

Long before it runs out of oil.


5 posted on 01/08/2010 3:36:09 PM PST by chris37
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To: Faketan
I recently had cause to peruse my yellowing copy of The Environmental Handbook 1970, published for "the first national environmental teach-in, April 22 1970."

Same ol' wide-eyed BS, 40 years later. And no closer to "peak oil" than ever.

6 posted on 01/08/2010 3:36:35 PM PST by hinckley buzzard
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To: Faketan
Well, it is a silly argument.

You can make the important oil end product (gasoline) with coal, nat gas, corn, sugar beet, saw grass, etc.

The REAL question is what is going to be the next affordable energy product in the future...

7 posted on 01/08/2010 3:37:27 PM PST by 2banana (My common ground with terrorists - they want to die for islam and we want to kill them)
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To: Mr. Lucky
Something similar to what happened when whale oil ran out, I suppose.

But whale oil never did run out, and neither will our current petroleum supply.

8 posted on 01/08/2010 3:39:46 PM PST by Hoodat (For the weapons of our warfare are mighty in God for pulling down strongholds.)
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To: Faketan

I heard some comments on the History channel the other night about the future of oil. They sounded suspiciously like the global warming crowd.

“There is no debate”....”Even the optimists agree....”


9 posted on 01/08/2010 3:40:11 PM PST by cripplecreek (Seniors, the new shovel ready project under socialized medicine.)
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To: Faketan

Weren’t we supposed to run out of oil in 1990?


10 posted on 01/08/2010 3:43:09 PM PST by VeniVidiVici (I'd rather be an AGW denier than a dumbass Watermelon)
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To: Faketan
What happens when it runs out?

First, it's gonna get real squeaky.

11 posted on 01/08/2010 3:44:10 PM PST by SouthTexas (Exterminate the rats!)
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To: Faketan

The democrats have made it illegal to drill for oil in Colorado so the oil will stay in the ground if they have their way. The rats want us ruled by OPEC.


12 posted on 01/08/2010 3:45:20 PM PST by mountainlion (concerned conservative.)
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To: Faketan

The democrats have made it illegal to drill for oil in Colorado so the oil will stay in the ground if they have their way. The rats want us ruled by OPEC.


13 posted on 01/08/2010 3:45:21 PM PST by mountainlion (concerned conservative.)
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To: Faketan
This entire article is based on a HUGE false assumption: We would run out of oil overnight.

When/if we run out of oil, it would absolutely occur over a prolonged period of declining output. This would lesson almost all of the shocks he's sounding the alarms about as people and economies would have time to adjust to other fuel options.

14 posted on 01/08/2010 3:46:17 PM PST by BlueMondaySkipper (Involuntarily subsidizing the parasite class since 1981)
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To: Faketan
( Oil Won’t Last Forever – What happens when it runs out? ) ....
Build more nuclear plants and power stations.....
15 posted on 01/08/2010 3:49:18 PM PST by American Constitutionalist (There is no civility in the way the Communist/Marxist want to destroy the USA)
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To: Faketan

1) None of us will likely live to see the day.

2) I most certainly won’t run out overnight. There will be decades of dwindling production accompanied by ever higher prices as the stuff becomes more rare. Substitutes like ethanol or biodiesel would then finally become cost effective.

3) And what happens in the Middle East? They can go pound sand as they watch their unearned wealth be swallowed up by the desert, couldn’t happen to a lovelier bunch of people.


16 posted on 01/08/2010 3:50:32 PM PST by eclecticEel (The Most High rules in the kingdom of men ... and sets over it the basest of men.)
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To: Faketan

Maybe Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Iran, etc will be gigantic sink holes where the oil used to be ....


17 posted on 01/08/2010 3:52:09 PM PST by SkyDancer (I Believe In The Law Until It Interferes With Justice)
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To: 2banana

“The REAL question is what is going to be the next affordable energy product in the future”

Th real question is when will the Environmental Protection Agency realize that mankind needs to be at the top of their preservation list and not a backwater snail darter or desert tumbleweed.


18 posted on 01/08/2010 3:53:01 PM PST by Cyman
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To: BlueMondaySkipper
When/if we run out of oil, it would absolutely occur over a prolonged period of declining output....

That sounds more reassuring than it really is. The key is the ratio of declining output to increasing demand, especially in the absence of equivalent quantities of alternative fuels suitable for all our various needs: transportation, heating/cooling, etc.

If the increase in the production and adaptation of equivalent alternative fuels offsets the decrease in oil output, fine. Then it really doesn't matter how long it takes oil producers to suck out the last drop.

19 posted on 01/08/2010 4:00:20 PM PST by kittykat77
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To: RobRoy

New crude sources are continuously being discovered in the world. Also, it has become evident that oil wells that have remained capped for years, because of their unproductivity, are showing higher pressures and crude levels in their formations.


20 posted on 01/08/2010 4:01:37 PM PST by 353FMG (Save the Planet -- Eliminate Socialism)
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To: RobRoy
And as far-fetched as it might seem to some of us, that day will undoubtedly come, very probably within our lifetime.

When I was in college in the early 1970's, ALL the science classes that I attended had an obligatory screed that oil was going to run out by the end of the decade - there just wasn't anymore to be found.

It does seem that there is more and more evidence that oil is created by an abiotic process of methane percolating from the earth's core into its mantle/crust. I find it unconvincing that all those dead dinosaurs and their plants found their way down 7 miles to undergo a chemical change that is yet to be recreated in the lab. Places like the La Brea Tar Pits also pose a bit of a conundrum to the biotic oil folks..

21 posted on 01/08/2010 4:04:20 PM PST by Thommas (The snout of the camel is in the tent..)
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To: Faketan

I hope that in appreciation for the FRee FReducation you just received you will click on the donation link and help keep FR going. Thank you! ;-)


22 posted on 01/08/2010 4:10:10 PM PST by TigersEye (Tar & feathers! Pitchforks and torches! ... Get some while supplies last.)
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To: Faketan

More junk science perpetuated by liars w/an agenda. What was it, in the 70s where we were headed for another ice age because the smog would blot out the sun’s rays? Now it’s global warming?


23 posted on 01/08/2010 4:12:02 PM PST by LouAvul
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To: Faketan
... a massive turn to nuclear energy. It may not be the safest of energies,

More Americans have died in Ted Kennedy's car than have died from generating nuclear power.

24 posted on 01/08/2010 4:14:56 PM PST by denydenydeny (The Left sees taxpayers the way Dr Frankenstein saw the local cemetery; raw material for experiments)
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To: Faketan

Well when oil wells runs there are vast reserves of coal and oil shale to process and after that there is nuclear growing algae in farms. So all this “no oil” baloney is just baloney.


25 posted on 01/08/2010 4:15:16 PM PST by FastCoyote (I am intolerant of the intolerable.)
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To: Mr. Lucky
Where's the BARF ALERT!

And as far-fetched as it might seem to some of us, that day will undoubtedly come, very probably within our lifetime

Yeah, if you live to somewhere between 200 and 300.

26 posted on 01/08/2010 4:17:30 PM PST by Recon Dad ( USMC SSgt Patrick O - 3rd Afghanistan Deployment - Day 80)
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To: hinckley buzzard
You’ll like the following.

In 1914, the Bureau of Mines said U.S. oil reserves would be exhausted by 1924. In 1939, the Interior Department said the world had 13 years worth of petroleum reserves. Then a global war was fought and the postwar boom was fueled, and in 1951 Interior reported that the world had ... 13 years of reserves. In 1970, the world’s proven oil reserves were an estimated 612 billion barrels. By 2006, more than 767 billion barrels had been pumped and proven reserves were 1.2 trillion barrels. In 1977, Scold in Chief Jimmy Carter predicted that mankind “could use up all the proven reserves of oil in the entire world by the end of the next decade.” Since then the world has consumed three times more oil than was then in the world’s proven reserves.

27 posted on 01/08/2010 4:23:17 PM PST by Recon Dad ( USMC SSgt Patrick O - 3rd Afghanistan Deployment - Day 80)
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To: Faketan

We will never, ever run out of oil. If you were the owner of the last barrels of oil on the planet, would you set them on fire for fuel?


28 posted on 01/08/2010 4:25:16 PM PST by Sgt_Schultze (A half-truth is a complete lie)
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To: Thommas

Read the following.

In 1914, the Bureau of Mines said U.S. oil reserves would be exhausted by 1924. In 1939, the Interior Department said the world had 13 years worth of petroleum reserves. Then a global war was fought and the postwar boom was fueled, and in 1951 Interior reported that the world had ... 13 years of reserves. In 1970, the world’s proven oil reserves were an estimated 612 billion barrels. By 2006, more than 767 billion barrels had been pumped and proven reserves were 1.2 trillion barrels. In 1977, Scold in Chief Jimmy Carter predicted that mankind “could use up all the proven reserves of oil in the entire world by the end of the next decade.” Since then the world has consumed three times more oil than was then in the world’s proven reserves.


29 posted on 01/08/2010 4:25:56 PM PST by Recon Dad ( USMC SSgt Patrick O - 3rd Afghanistan Deployment - Day 80)
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To: Faketan

How long is forever?

Oil will be here forever!

Coal will be here forever!

We will not be here forever!!


30 posted on 01/08/2010 4:44:27 PM PST by Calif4Palin (Proud Moosehead....)
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To: Recon Dad
Talk about 'close enough for government work!' LOL

Can't wait until bureaucrats are deciding what medical procedures we can have. /s

31 posted on 01/08/2010 4:48:01 PM PST by TigersEye (Tar & feathers! Pitchforks and torches! ... Get some while supplies last.)
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To: Faketan

In the last 24 months the US supply of natural gas has increased from 10 years to 100 years because of new technologies, new methods for exraction, & new gas field discoveries in the USA.

Basically the answer to oil problems is gas for the USA.


32 posted on 01/08/2010 4:55:33 PM PST by ckilmer (Phi)
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To: AdmSmith; Berosus; bigheadfred; Convert from ECUSA; dervish; Ernest_at_the_Beach; Fred Nerks; ...
Joined today to post this:
Take the United Arab Emirates (UAE) one of the major oil-producing states in the Gulf where the local population is outnumbered five-to one. Out of a population of some 4.8 million less than 20 % are nationals of the country; and even among the nationals, a good percentage very probably hail from other neighboring countries, such as Palestine, Lebanon or other countries in the region. The bulk of the population -- a whopping 50 percent -- are from the Indian sub-continent; from India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Balouchistan or from Iran and Afghanistan. The same holds true in the rest of the Gulf Cooperation Council states; Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman.
IOW, the problem isn't in the oil, it's in who controls it. Drill the ANWR.
33 posted on 01/08/2010 5:04:38 PM PST by SunkenCiv (Happy New Year! Freedom is Priceless.)
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To: Faketan

I have a saying. “He who has the last barrel of oil will rule the world.” I would rather use Russia’s oil first.


34 posted on 01/08/2010 5:14:45 PM PST by Brilliant
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To: Faketan

oil won’t run out unless politics makes it unavailable!


35 posted on 01/08/2010 5:19:31 PM PST by dalereed
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To: BlueMondaySkipper

Yes, not only that...

Oil supply is measured in “economically recoverable” oil. As the price of oil goes up, it becomes profitable to go after oil which is not currently profitable to go after. As that happens, the amount of economically recoverable oil increases exponentially. Let alone the fact that we only know of the “economically unrecoverable” we chanced apon, since who looks for economically unrecoverable oil?


36 posted on 01/08/2010 5:20:54 PM PST by dangus (Nah, I'm not really Jim Thompson, but I play him on FR.)
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To: dangus

Who says demand is going to consistantly increase? We’ve got falling populations now.


37 posted on 01/08/2010 6:08:20 PM PST by BenKenobi (;)
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To: BenKenobi

When the day comes when fusion reactors are the norm this will all be moot.


38 posted on 01/08/2010 6:13:12 PM PST by ak267
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To: ak267

True, Fusion is so much better. Can’t wait till it happens!


39 posted on 01/08/2010 6:15:36 PM PST by BenKenobi (;)
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To: Faketan
Oil Won’t Last Forever – What happens when it runs out?

We will make more. Thermal Depolymerization (TDP) is a process using hydrous pyrolysis for the reduction of complex organic materials (usually waste products of various sorts, often known as biomass and plastic) into light crude oil. It is too expensive to use now, but as the reserves run down or TDP technology improves it will become competitive. Turn table scraps, lawn waste and Kudzu into oil. 100% renewable.
40 posted on 01/08/2010 6:29:37 PM PST by GonzoGOP (There are millions of paranoid people in the world and they are all out to get me.)
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To: GonzoGOP; Faketan

The Fischer–Tropsch process is being used now to gassify coal. We have LOTS of coal.


41 posted on 01/08/2010 6:33:59 PM PST by narses ('in an odd way this is cheering news!'.)
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To: Hoodat
But whale oil never did run out, and neither will our current petroleum supply.

No but between 1860 - 1880 whales got scarce enough that it became cheaper to refine the black goop they found in Pennsylvania then send ship all over the world to find whales. The substitutes already exist, see my post on TDP, so if/when supplies run down the substitutes will kick in. you can't run out of something you can grow, reuse and make from garbage.
42 posted on 01/08/2010 6:34:18 PM PST by GonzoGOP (There are millions of paranoid people in the world and they are all out to get me.)
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To: FastCoyote

don’t get me wrong - i’m not one of these peak oil conspiracy theorists - but eventually supplies will run low - that’s when interesting things will start to happen - by interesting i mean sh*t hit the fan.


43 posted on 01/08/2010 6:36:51 PM PST by Faketan
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To: narses
We have LOTS of coal.

Lots, even in all caps, doesn't even begin to describe the reserves in just the US. And if you convert it to oil you can use all the low quality Midwest coal that isn't as good in power plants. Most of that stuff isn't even being mined any more.

Still cheaper to drill for oil and lots still to be drilled. But even when that runs down (note I don't say out) we will just switch to something else.

Stupid history fact. The main cause of the industrial revolution was the exhausting of timber reserves. The supplies became so short that the Royal Navy posted armed guards around stands of Oak to protect their shipbuilding materials. So they developed substitutes, Coal for heating, Iron for building, the they developed the coke so as to be able to use charcoal in the steel making process and completely removed their reliance on timber.

When coal and Iron ran short in WWII we developed substitutes. Industry switched from coal to oil power and much of what was made from iron ans steel started to be made from plastic.

Resource shortages are not new. Conservatives and isnsutrialists use technology and science to find substitutes, adapt and overcome. Its the panic struck libs and greens who want to go back into the caves.
44 posted on 01/08/2010 6:42:51 PM PST by GonzoGOP (There are millions of paranoid people in the world and they are all out to get me.)
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To: GonzoGOP

:)


45 posted on 01/08/2010 6:46:27 PM PST by narses ('in an odd way this is cheering news!'.)
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To: ckilmer
Basically the answer to oil problems is gas for the USA.

Not to mention how much natural gas is sitting on the ocean floor in the form of methane hydrate. This stuff is more or less pure natural gas sitting in a layer half a kilometer thick covering a good chunk of the ocean floor. Too expensive to bring it up currently, but there are 2500 gigatonnes of the crap down there. That is 10 times more than the estimate of the reserves of conventional methane. In fact the estimeat of all other fossil fuels combined is only 5000 gigatonnes. Thats Coal Oil and regular run of the mill natural gas.

We are not going to run out any time soon.
46 posted on 01/08/2010 6:51:46 PM PST by GonzoGOP (There are millions of paranoid people in the world and they are all out to get me.)
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To: BenKenobi

No-one. But a stable population can also exhaust a non-renewable resource. But we are certainly able to technologically progress before we exhaust carbon fuels.


47 posted on 01/08/2010 6:51:53 PM PST by dangus (Nah, I'm not really Jim Thompson, but I play him on FR.)
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To: dangus
But a stable population can also exhaust a non-renewable resource.

So make it renewable. Here is a brain buster weird thing I read about. The thermal depolymerization process works particularly well on stuff like rubber, paper, plastic, and organic waste. Get your hands on a good supply of that and you can actually turn a profit. So how much of that sort of stuff is currently sitting at the bottom of landfills? Given an increase in oil prices either due to resource depletion, or much more likely political instability, we might be able to make money mining garbage.

Oh and don't get me started on the amount of pre processed organic matter we flush away (literally) every day. Unless the whole world gets real constipated that is a renewable resource.
48 posted on 01/08/2010 7:12:37 PM PST by GonzoGOP (There are millions of paranoid people in the world and they are all out to get me.)
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To: BlueMondaySkipper

I agree with you. The guy who wrote this projection of the future is not the sharpest knife in the drawer.


49 posted on 01/08/2010 7:27:04 PM PST by SaraJohnson
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To: BlueMondaySkipper

I disagree -it’s not saying Oil will run out overnight - it’s merely stating what will hapen to regions / local economies and the political impact it will have.


50 posted on 01/08/2010 7:40:19 PM PST by Faketan
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