Skip to comments.10 Geopolitical & Economic Predictions for 2010
Posted on 01/30/2010 11:58:50 AM PST by buttonman
A great - and still growing - divergence appeared in 2009 between public statements by leaders and their public performance. The politicized, romanticized theater of increasingly populist democratic leaders and media seemed to be of a different planet from activities taking place in the real world.
While a large part of the global population appears still transfixed by words, there is a growing perception that great fissures already rend the global strategic architecture. This is a trend which will compound during 2010.
There is a widespread belief that the world has ducked the strategic bullet of global economic collapse, but this is merely the delusionary euphoria of the severely wounded patient. Severe structural damage has occurred to the key driver of global economic stability, the United States.
Let me highlight some of the cautions which I have made over recent years, without merely repeating the ground of the March 20, 2009, report.
1. The decline in Western asset values will likely continue in the broad sense through 2010, which will automatically lead to a compounded reduction in the asset-based credit available. In other words, Western economies will be forcibly de-levered, quite apart from the fiscal prudence which will cause a reduction in risk investment;
2. The West will demonstrably not contest dominance of the major oil and gas fields of Iraq, Iran, Nigeria (and elsewhere in the Gulf of Guinea) against competition from the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) and, to a lesser extent, India. This will force moves in the US toward natural gas exploitation and as Obama and the green left depart possible exploitation of US oilfields and new nuclear energy approaches. This would in turn imply a renewed look at nuclear waste disposal. But none of this Western search for alternatives will occur in 2010.
3. The conflict in Afghanistan will become increasingly strained as the US sends out, literally, signals of surrender to the Taliban, who take
Full article at: 10 Geopolitical Predictions
He actually did pretty well - almost spot on. The thing is these guys give themselves quite a wide safety net when making predictions :-)
Most jarring note to me: The "Drive'em to negotiate" approach to the Taliban in Afghanistan. IOW, we kill afew, and then offer them bribes?
Of course, they'll take the money and attack a short while later. In a way, it's a replay of the VietNam War strategy, of bombing the NV to the negotiation table, and then leaving, and then refusing to re-supply the ARVN..
Most jarring note to me: The "Drive'em to negotiate" approach to the Taliban in Afghanistan. IOW, we kill a few, and then offer them bribes?
Of course, they'll take the money and attack a short while later, hoping in the meantime that we go home. In a way, it's a replay of the VietNam War strategy, of bombing the NV to the negotiation table then leaving, and then refusing to re-supply the ARVN.
Doom and gloom
Gloom and doom
And six disaster to be named later