Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Kentuck Derby Preview
ESPN.com ^ | April 27, 2010 | Bill Finley

Posted on 04/27/2010 2:58:35 PM PDT by SomeCallMeTim

I haven't figured out yet who will win the Kentucky Derby, but I have figured out how that horse will win -- by coming from way, way back. With the group that's set to line up at the starting gate Saturday at Churchill Downs, the pace for this Derby figures to be among the fastest in the history of the race. If so, any horse who gets anywhere near the lead is doomed to fail

(Excerpt) Read more at sports.espn.go.com ...


TOPICS: Sports
KEYWORDS: derby; horse; kentucky; racing
With yet another year of the "Best" horse not running, this field is wide-open. There are no fewer than EIGHT Grade 1 winners in this race. I happen to believe, this author is correct: the early pace will take out a few of the crowd favorites. I'm kind of liking Ice Box. But, wow... there are also FIVE horses in the field who have never run out of the money... that's gonna change for AT LEAST two of them! :-)
1 posted on 04/27/2010 2:58:35 PM PDT by SomeCallMeTim
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: SomeCallMeTim
I'm betting Stately Victor.

ML/NJ

2 posted on 04/27/2010 3:02:55 PM PDT by ml/nj
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SomeCallMeTim
Don't have a clue any more on handicapping the Derby, but I was there in the infield when Secretariat won. (was there a few other times, but that was my favorite memory at Churchill Downs.
3 posted on 04/27/2010 3:09:51 PM PDT by Recon Dad ( USMC SSgt Patrick O - 3rd Afghanistan Deployment - Day 189)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ml/nj

Will tell you my Derby picks after I look at the past performances Thursday. That way you will know who to throw out.


4 posted on 04/27/2010 3:09:55 PM PDT by LauraJean (sometimes I win sometimes I donate to the equine benevolent society)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: ml/nj

I won’t leave him out of my exotics... but, I’m not a big fan of BlueGrass winners in the Derby.


5 posted on 04/27/2010 3:10:21 PM PDT by SomeCallMeTim
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: LauraJean

If it makes you feel any better... here’s the rundown on Mine That Bird from a handicapper sheet last year! :

Mine That Bird was the champion juvenile colt in Canada last year, but his Dosage index of 5.40 prevented him from earning Dual Qualifier status. He scored the least number of points in this year’s analysis. Along with the Beyer knock, he lacks a stakes win this year, does not have enough prep races (2 races at Sunland Park), is coming off a 5 week layoff, has a top Beyer of just 81, the slowest by far in the field, and he runs close to the pace. His few positives include stakes wins last year (all three at Woodbine), 8 lifetime starts, and a sharp prep race, having finished 3 1/4 lengths back in the Sunland Derby.


6 posted on 04/27/2010 3:12:51 PM PDT by SomeCallMeTim
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: SomeCallMeTim

Actually I won money on Mine That Bird since I had placed on bet using the “all other horses” button in the futures bet. Didn’t make the amount of money I would have if I had bed the horse Derby day. But and ticket I can cash is a good one.


7 posted on 04/27/2010 3:18:06 PM PDT by LauraJean (sometimes I win sometimes I donate to the equine benevolent society)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: SomeCallMeTim
Eskendereya got more attention and respect than he probably deserved, based upon his winning times and what he beat. He looked tremendous, but he probably did not beat much.

That said, this is a difficult bunch to sort through.
8 posted on 04/27/2010 3:18:21 PM PDT by Nepeta
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SomeCallMeTim
not a big fan of BlueGrass winners

That, of course, is the idea. My feeling is that the Blue Grass is a $750,000 race and that sooner of later, the winner will repeat in the Derby. I was at the Blue Grass. Stately Victor was the most unlikely winner, but he woke up and ran a very powerful race. If he runs a similar race on Saturday, he's going to be tough to beat; and he'll probably be 25-1 or more because the Blue Grass has been so downgraded in bettors' minds since the switch to Poly at Keeneland.

ML/NJ

9 posted on 04/27/2010 4:31:22 PM PDT by ml/nj
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: ml/nj

Well... he ran the RIGHT kind of race, coming from behind.

Street Sense won the Derby after a strong BlueGrass race.. but, he did have a better history coming in.


10 posted on 04/27/2010 5:07:17 PM PDT by SomeCallMeTim
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: LauraJean
Actually I won money on Mine That Bird

That damn Bird killed all my tickets... I lost on Giacomo too... but, I've hit the winner and made money on all other Derbies since I've been attending (2002).

RIP Barbaro... who made me more money in the Derby than any other... ever... in any race.

11 posted on 04/27/2010 5:11:00 PM PDT by SomeCallMeTim
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: All
Louisville, KY is my hometown, we'll be watching the races from our current home in MD. STILL haven't looked at the horses enough to make a pick. I'm the walking horse racing encyclopedia of the family but my luck of picking Derby winners has been anything but great over the years.

Here's the Louisville, KY 10-day weather forecast from weather.com with highs/lows and chances of precipitation:

Tonight
Apr 27
Clear 40° 0 %
Wed
Apr 28
Sunny 68°/48° 0 %
Thu
Apr 29
Partly Cloudy 77°/60° 10 %
Fri
Apr 30
Partly Cloudy 81°/66° 10 %
Sat
May 01
Scattered T-Storms 73°/66° 40 %
Sun
May 02
Scattered T-Storms 76°/59° 40 %
Mon
May 03
Few Showers 75°/54° 30 %
Tue
May 04
Scattered Showers 72°/49° 30 %
Wed
May 05
Partly Cloudy 75°/58° 20 %
Thu
May 06
Sunny 77°/61° 0 %


12 posted on 04/27/2010 6:44:21 PM PDT by Severa (I can't take this stress anymore...quick, get me a marker to sniff....)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Severa
Crud. Put in the wrong link, here it is. Never been to a Derby but have attended a Breeders Cup at Churchill Downs. Churchill Downs is Barbaro's final resting place. It is also the final resting place of the great filly Eight Belles, as well as Derby winners Sunny's Halo (1983), Carry Back (1961), Swaps (1955) and Broker's Tip (1933).
13 posted on 04/27/2010 6:48:19 PM PDT by Severa (I can't take this stress anymore...quick, get me a marker to sniff....)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: SomeCallMeTim

Weak field this year. Eskendereya was a man amongst boys...would have won by lots.
Anyway, Beyer wise, filly has a shot if she runs. I’ll use her with Awesome Act, Noble’s Promise and Lookin at Lucky.
If she’s out, Awesome Act and Noble’s Promise will be my keys.
Will include Sidney’s Candy and Jackson Bend in superfectas.


14 posted on 04/27/2010 8:11:28 PM PDT by Holen1
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Holen1
Weak field this year. Eskendereya was a man amongst boys...would have won by lots.

I agree.... and, having one horse to put on top sure makes Tri's and super's easier to hit. :-(

That said... this field is VERY balanced. With the Favorite (Lucky) drawing the rail post, the payouts are going to be huge. Morning line has Lucky at 3-1. I'd be surprised if he isn't more like 5 or 6 by race time...and, STILL the favorite.

15 posted on 04/28/2010 10:58:08 AM PDT by SomeCallMeTim
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: Severa

The local weather people are far more pessimistic. They’re calling for a total of 2.5 - 5 inches of rain between Friday night and Sunday.

Normally, they try to “put on a happy face” when it comes to weather... this time, they’re all saying, “It’s gonna be WET, and possible severe”. :-(


16 posted on 04/28/2010 10:59:49 AM PDT by SomeCallMeTim
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: SomeCallMeTim

Yeah, I think it’s a balanced field also. Should get a pretty good price on the fav, no matter who it is.
Believe it or not, I actually think the 20 post will help Sidney’s Candy. I contend he doesn’t need the lead. He kinda inherited the lead in last two and was able to relax. If he gets a chance to sit off the speed he could be pretty tough...might have to rethink things here. :-)


17 posted on 04/28/2010 12:53:47 PM PDT by Holen1
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: Cailleach

ping


18 posted on 04/28/2010 1:37:12 PM PDT by kalee (The offences we give, we write in the dust; Those we take, we engrave in marble. J Huett 1658)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Holen1

Yea... I kind of had the same thought.. He’s out there wide, away from the early speed horses... Probably helps.

Still though.. horses who haven’t shown they can rate, or come off the pace, generally DO NOT learn that strategy at Churchill. The drunk ass crowd of 140,000 kind of get the horses a little excited too..

That.. and, Sidney’s Candy has never raced on dirt. That’s still a BIG negative to me. PLenty of good Cali horses have come over here in the past few years and dissapeared on the dirt.

Trackside rumors have been saying he seems to like the dirt. But, I don’t think we have any direct quotes from him on that. :-)


19 posted on 04/28/2010 1:41:13 PM PDT by SomeCallMeTim
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: SomeCallMeTim

I still like Ice Box’s style for the way this race sets up. Being at #2 post won’t hurt him at all.

I am rather bummed to see him listed at 10-1 odds... He’ll catch a lot of attention now.

When was the last Derby that only had ONE HORSE with a 100 Beyer?? Geesh!


20 posted on 04/28/2010 1:50:09 PM PDT by SomeCallMeTim
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: SomeCallMeTim

“When was the last Derby that only had ONE HORSE with a 100 Beyer?? Geesh!”

Actually, 3. Sidney’s Candy 100 in SA Derby.
Devil May Care 100 in Bonnie Miss.
Jackson Bend 100 in FSN Reality at Calder last Oct.

You’re right though, not real impressive Beyer wise.


21 posted on 04/28/2010 5:09:42 PM PDT by Holen1
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: SomeCallMeTim
The local weather people are far more pessimistic. They’re calling for a total of 2.5 - 5 inches of rain between Friday night and Sunday.

Sounds about par for the course for Louisville this time of year. Looks like it's going to be a 'college kids getting drunk in the infield and play slip and slide with the tarps' kind of Derby.

22 posted on 04/28/2010 6:38:15 PM PDT by Severa (I can't take this stress anymore...quick, get me a marker to sniff....)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: Holen1

Hmn... the PP’s I printed have Devil May Care nad Jackson Bend listed at 99.

Is that Beyer? or BRES?


23 posted on 04/28/2010 7:30:48 PM PDT by SomeCallMeTim
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]

To: SomeCallMeTim

Beyers from DRF site at about 8 P.M.


24 posted on 04/29/2010 12:26:16 AM PDT by Holen1
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: Holen1

My DRF today only shows two at 100: Devil and S Candy. for what that’s worth..

I’m starting to like Super Saver. He shows a nice progression in his times.. he just lost out to Line of David in last race, but was giving 4 lbs.. With Calvin riding him, he’s likely to get a good trip...

Odds should be good on him...

GOT To keep Lookin for Lucky in the money...


25 posted on 04/29/2010 4:06:50 PM PDT by SomeCallMeTim
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: SomeCallMeTim

I gave up trying to figure this stuff out years ago. I place exacta bets on my kids’ birthdays. (Actually, that hasn’t helped yet, either, but at least I’m thinking of them.)


26 posted on 04/30/2010 10:55:07 AM PDT by Tanniker Smith (Obi-Wan Palin: Strike her down and she shall become more powerful than you could possibly imagine.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SomeCallMeTim
I'm showing the Derby on NBC Television at 5 PM ET ( Pre race ) post time at approx. 6:15 PM. ET.
Rain out looks more likely from recent weather reports.
27 posted on 04/30/2010 10:44:25 PM PDT by Hillarys Gate Cult (The man who said "there's no such thing as a stupid question" has never talked to Helen Thomas.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Hillarys Gate Cult

LOL Wish I was with you... I’ll be out there, Section 116.. on the finish line, row C... unprotected from the elements. :-(

Still not sure who I’m going for to win... looking like a 5-6 horse Tri box... the payoffs will be HUGE.

I still like Super Saver, Lucky, Devil May Care, Dublin, Line of David... and, about 10 others. ;-)


28 posted on 05/01/2010 7:05:56 AM PDT by SomeCallMeTim
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

To: SomeCallMeTim

Sorry I gave the impression that I was in that area or going to the Derby. Just following national weather now showing a 100% chance of thunderstorms all through race day at Churchill Downs.


29 posted on 05/01/2010 8:10:42 AM PDT by Hillarys Gate Cult (The man who said "there's no such thing as a stupid question" has never talked to Helen Thomas.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]

To: Hillarys Gate Cult

YEA SUPER SAVER!!! After a 1 year hiatus, I’m back on track picking Derby Winners... and, I hit the exacta on a $5 ticket... paid $379! :-) Plus, a $20 Win ticket...

But... I didn’t have Paddy in 3rd in any of my Tri bets... :-( Oh well, can’t win em all..

Weather turned out better than it could have been.. we actually had a LITTLE sunshine for the Derby. The rest of the day, was rough... for weather and betting..


30 posted on 05/01/2010 4:52:51 PM PDT by SomeCallMeTim
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 29 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson