Posted on 08/25/2010 6:58:43 PM PDT by Signalman
Don’t confuse the dramatic swell of the Republican tide that is becoming increasingly evident to the pundits of the country with party trend. Right before Election Day, the numbers will get even better and presage an even larger Republican victory.
Party trend usually indicates itself in the ten days before an election when voters who do not typically follow politics closely tune in and decide for whom to vote. Until this window, they usually describe themselves to pollsters as “undecided.” There will be a huge Republican party trend this year, but it hasn’t happened yet.
The huge Republican poll numbers these days do not reflect the last minute switches typical of less involved voters but rather mirror the disappointment with Obama and with Congress among voters who do follow politics closely that has accumulated over the past year and a half. It is this reappraisal of their political opinions that is occasioning the big swing toward Republicans in the 2010 election.
The ranks of these disaffected voters who are now turning against Obama and the Democrats will soon be joined by the less involved voters who will come around in the week or ten days before the election.
From the perception of the pollster, party trend is a bit like a curveball thrown by a pitcher to a batter. The election statistics remain fairly static for weeks or even months with little change as the race unfolds through September and early through mid October. Like a fastball that comes in straight and true.
Then, suddenly, as the election nears, the vote swings wildly to one side or the other, akin to a curve ball that breaks as it approaches the batter – usually too late for him to make an adjustment. Suddenly, the tied races show up as decisive victories for the side that benefits from party trend. And the unwinnable races come into play.
2010 is a year like no other in the magnitude of the partisan shift going on. It dwarfs 1994 and even 1974 in its order of magnitude. But we haven’t yet seen the full impact of the last minute party shift that will take place. Plenty of voters who are now undecided are yet to be heard from and, when they are, they will impact the results decisively.
In which direction? Most likely they will transform a massive Republican win into an even more massive victory. The uninvolved voters who will decide late in the process are likely to break the same way the rest of the country is breaking – toward the Republicans. Surveys suggest that they share the disenchantment of the participating voters with the economy and Obama’s performance. They have just not focused on the coming election.
Democrats hope that the less involved voters are also less educated and more likely to be the young or minority voters on whom their party depends. But the lack of enthusiasm among Democrats for Obama indicates that these voters are likely to decide by staying home. In the most recent Fox News/Opinion Dynamics study, 54% of Republicans said they were “very enthusiastic” about voting in the 2010 elections while only 28% of Democrats felt the same way.
So the net result is that for those who anticipate a major Republican win in 2010, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet!
Dick Morris has an almost unblemished record...he is almost always wrong.
Not this time.
>> Dick Morris has an almost unblemished record...he is almost always wrong.
Yes, but you know the saying: “Even a blind squirrel finds a toe now and then”.
Oops! Sorry! Nut. Not toe. Nut.
100% in...Miller leads Murkowski by 1668 !!!! Now absentee votes next.
....or a stopped clock is right twice a day.
He's just toe-ing the line.
BS. Morris has come down on the right side of most issues, don’t live in the past.
He’s right about the party trend. Many people don’t follow politics and won’t start to pay attention until a few weeks before the election, and when they do come down, it won’t be on the side of “thems what’s in charge”.
I agree. I think Morris has it right. There will be low turnouts of minorities and college students for the Demorats and a large enthusastic turnout for conservatives and yes even for Republicans
I agree. I think Morris has it right. There will be low turnouts of minorities and college students for the Demorats and a large enthusastic turnout for conservatives and yes even for Republicans
I agree. I think Morris has it right. There will be low turnouts of minorities and college students for the Demorats and a large enthusastic turnout for conservatives and yes even for Republicans
Still a bit concerned that the brain dead drones could still be rallied by OBaalMao Master and dirty Dems to offset some of the gains expected on our side. I’ll be very happy to be dead wrong on this!
Excellent point here. This trend isn't a massive embrace of conservative principles as it is a rejection of the culture of encumbancy in politics. Hopefully the GOP recognizes it as such and doesn't try to take some stupid stance about "having a mandate."
This election isn't about right vs. left. It's about incumbents vs. challengers.
Sorry for the triple post. Old computer with sticky keys
Fine. Unless that translates into fewer liberal Republicans, we are not really getting ahead. Juan McTraitor’s win in AZ bodes ill for the Senate.
Just because a legislator has (R) after their name does not mean it is good for us......or the country.
“...a large enthusastic turnout for ... Republicans...”
We’ll take the Irish and we’ll take the Jews ... but we won’t take the Republicans!
wassup wit dat?
That’s not true. Morris is right here and he has been right about more things than not.
If I was a resident of Arizona, I wouldn't even vote for McCain, and I'd even consider voting for his democrat challenger. He's more detrimental to conservatives than any democrat could ever dream of being. It seems to me the republican party insist on being stuck on stupid!
“Old computer with sticky keys.”
With me, it’s usually cat on keyboard. :)
Stay home then.
The rest of us will tote that bale.
I always get nervous and slightly resentful when he predicts something that I want to happen. I wish he would keep his predictions to himself. I sometimes think he has a paranormal and malign effect.
I first remember being politically aware during Reagan’s campaign against Carter. I remember the polls were only a couple of points apart right up until the last when undecideds broke heavily to Reagan, and the GOP senate races.
He does good comment and analysis of current things. His predictions have been right a very tiny percentage.
...Exactly how Miller came from behind in Alaska...
Voters fed up with the Alaskan establishment, obamacare, and out of control spending, and the oil drilling bans...
Four hot button tickets to motivate Alaskans....and it did.
McCain in the Senate is a big gain for Democrats. He will push Amnesty hard and if he can get that it does not matter what his votes and positions are on any other issue. Amnesty will be the end of the Republican Party as any sort of national presence. The two party system will become the one party Social Democrat government which will last until the Spanish bloc breaks of into an Aztlan or Mexican Nationalist Party.
Morris is right about a lot of present situations. He has been 90+% WRONG on his predictions since he left Clinton employ. My boss bets money against Morris’s predictions every time or he did. He doesn’t make the bets now because no one will take them any more. He paid one once.
Now that you mention it, that race might prove to be yet another harbinger.
More GOP voters showed up for that mid-term primary than showed up for the general election in 2008.
Unless that translates into fewer liberal Republicans, we are not really getting ahead. Juan McTraitor’s win in AZ
The next Senate will be decidedly more conservative - period. Don't let McCain having to spend north of $20MM on a primary race muddy the waters.
“BS. Morris has come down on the right side of most issues, don’t live in the past.”
Morris insisted that Hillary would be the next president. That’s just one example of how bad he is at predicting stuff.
When it comes to after-action analysis, Morris is one of the best. But usually he’s lousy about future probabilities.
Having said that, in this situation he has studied the data closely and the election is not that far away, so he has more credibility on this one. Unlike the times he pulls the answer out of the air.
Did you read Boehner’s speech or merely read Biden’s take on it? Lower taxes, lower spending, border enforcement, repeal Obamacare, stop cap and trade, drill for oil, etc., are themes ad nauseum. Seems you are merely parroting the MSM and Dem talking points.
“More GOP voters showed up for that mid-term primary than showed up for the general election in 2008.”
Really? And with Palin on the ticket? Amazing! Barack Obama has really helped the republican party. Maybe I’ve been wrong about the guy, maybe he is a super deep cover mole, his mom was secretly a Goldwater girl or something!
Well, someone’s stuck on stupid.
Heh..I think you've nailed it.
I remember sitting in the parking lot at St Simons when the ole toe-ster was being interviewed and asked for his predictions. He predicted Juan Kereee, the viet nam guy, in a landslide.
I felt an extreme sense of relief because I knew then that we were safe.
How would you do it?
It's amazing to see how blind moderates can really be. Ok, if this is the case from Boehner are you going to hold his feet to the fire when none of those talking points happen? How would you do it?Here is the reality check: I do not care whether or not someone is Dr. Conservative who eats Ayn Rand cornflakes for breakfast, snacks on Reagan jellybeans, quotes Adam Smith in his sleep, recites the conservative maxims 10 times an hour and has all his "bonafides" in order BEFORE he takes office in Washington, DC. There is a disease that is on everything everywhere in that city and is concentrated in the capital itself. It is extremely contagious. So whomever is elected, the ONLY way we are going to effect structural, systemic, conservative change is by holding their feet to the fire to do it. Once the engagement from their base became inflamed, the GOP leadership was able to create very admirable discipline in its ranks across the liberal to moderate spectrum.
Wipe it from your head that if we send enough Joe Miller's or Jim Demint's to DC that we can coast because they will do the right thing. Even if you had 68 of them in the Senate and 350 in the House, you need to realize that every single person, building, dog, cat, mouse, horse in that whole stinking city wants to put pressure on you to spend and tax to the nth degree. Not only that, every single person almost who steps off a plane at Dulles or Reagan airport is there to go lobby to get you to spend more money. If we are going to change the system in a meaningful way, we do need to replace as many liberals and moderates with conservatives as we can, as many liberals with moderates as we can, and if we can't replace a liberal with a conservative or moderate, we need to replace them with a populist just to have a chance. But that is all it is - a chance.
The only way it will change is if the majority of Americans can support this energetically not just through more than one recession season, but through several election cycles. Probable: no. Possible: maybe.
I am not blind to the cold hard realities and the enormity of the task at hand. I see it better than I wish I did. But at the same time, I refuse to give in to pessimism and cynicism. Those two qualities are cancers themselves that keep the very people who should be of one mind to lead this revolution divided and arguing.
OMG do you people not learn anything from history??? This isn't about conservative vs. liberal anymore. It's about a STANDARD. FGS, I have more faith in Bernie Sanders than I do in a John McCain who speaks out of both sides of his mouth and is a prick to the Nth degree. At least you know EXACTLY where Bernie stands, but he's OUTSIDE so he becomes totally ineffective in the scheme of things if republicans take over power. Moderates and rino's destroy what vision the party may have because they weaken it thinking they have to kowtow to liberals.
I'm realistic, I know there's not a snowball's chance in hell every republican is going to be the bastion of conservatism, but there has to be enough of them to force the namby's to just stay out of the way!
Moderates and rino's have done more damage than dems could ever do. And for those of you who don't understand this you must be ruminating in some kind of thick skullistic time warp.
This is why I'd NEVER vote for John McCain because I know what he's about, and I've seen the damage he has inflicted already within...
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