Skip to comments.A Dalton Minimum Repeat is Shaping Up
Posted on 12/20/2010 3:05:33 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach
December 20, 2010
The sun went spotless yesterday, the first time in quite awhile. It seems like a good time to present this analysis from my friend David Archibald. For those not familiar with the Dalton Minimum, heres some background info from Wiki:
The Dalton Minimum was a period of low solar activity, named after the English meteorologist John Dalton, lasting from about 1790 to 1830. Like the Maunder Minimum and Spörer Minimum, the Dalton Minimum coincided with a period of lower-than-average global temperatures. The Oberlach Station in Germany, for example, experienced a 2.0°C decline over 20 years. The Year Without a Summer, in 1816, also occurred during the Dalton Minimum. Solar cycles 5 and 6, as shown below, were greatly reduced in amplitude. Anthony
Guest post by David Archibald
James Marusek emailed me to ask if I could update a particular graph. Now that it is a full two years since the month of solar minimum, this was a good opportunity to update a lot of graphs of solar activity.
The Suns current low level of activity starts from the low level of solar polar magnetic field strength at the 23/24 minimum. This was half the level at the previous minimum, and Solar Cycle 24 is expected to be just under half the amplitude of Solar Cycle 23.
It is said that solar minimum isnt reached until the heliospheric current sheet tilt angle has flattened. While the month of minimum for the 23/24 transition is considered to be December 2008, the heliospheric current sheet didnt flatten until June 2009.
Figure 3: Interplanetary Magnetic Field
The Interplanetary Magnetic Field remains very weak. It is almost back to the levels reached in previous solar minima.
The Ap Index remains under the levels of previous solar minima.
Figure 5: F10.7 Flux 1948 2010
The F10.7 Flux is a more accurate indicator of solar activity than the sunspot number. It remains low.
Figure 6: F10.7 Flux aligned on solar minima
In this figure, the F10.7 flux of the last six solar minima are aligned on the month of minimum, with the two years of decline to the minimum and three years of subsequent rise. The Solar Cycle 24 trajectory is much lower and flatter than the rises of the five previous cycles.
Figure 7: Oulu Neutron Count 1964 210
A weaker interplanetary magnetic field means more cosmic rays reach the inner planets of the solar system. The neutron count was higher this minimum than in the previous record. Thanks to the correlation between the F10.7 Flux and the neutron count in Figure 8 following, we now have a target for the Oulu neutron count at Solar Cycle 24 maximum in late 2014 of 6,150.
Figure 8: Oulu Neutron Flux plotted against lagged F10.7 flux
Neutron count tends to peak one year after solar minimum. Figure 8 was created by plotting Oulu neutron count against the F10.7 flux lagged by one year. The relationship demonstrated by this graph indicates that the most likely value for the Oulu neutron count at the Solar Cycle 24 maximum expected to be a F10.7 flux value of 100 in late 2014 will be 6,150.
Figure 9: Solar Cycle 24 compared to Solar Cycle 5
I predicted in a paper published in March 2006 that Solar Cycles 24 and 25 would repeat the experience of the Dalton Minimum. With two years of Solar Cycle 24 data in hand, the trajectory established is repeating the rise of Solar Cycle 5, the first half of the Dalton Minimum. The prediction is confirmed. Like Solar Cycles 5 and 6, Solar Cycle 24 is expected to be 12 years long. Solar maximum will be in late 2014/early 2015.
Figure 10: North America Snow Cover Ex-Greenland
The northern hemisphere is experiencing its fourth consecutive cold winter. The current winter is one of the coldest for a hundred years or more. For cold winters to provide positive feedback, snow cover has to survive from one winter to the next so that snows higher albedo relative to bare rock will reflect sunlight into space, causing cooler summers. The month of snow cover minimum is most often August, sometimes July. We have to wait another eight months to find out how this winter went in terms of retained snow cover. The 1970s cooling period had much higher snow cover minima than the last thirty years. Despite the last few cold winters, there was no increase in the snow cover minima. The snow cover minimum may have to get to over two million square kilometres before it starts having a significant effect.
That would be Good!
Yes, that is fresh snow on the ground. Almost 4" of it.
Perisher ski resort got a foot of snow.
This would be like a foot of snow falling on the Smokey Mountains on the Tennessee/Virgina border on June 21st.
Um, wasn’t there a lot of talk, just a couple years ago, about the sun being void of sunspots? I remember seeing articles about it when arguing AGW with the AGW flat earthers.
It’s got some good music.
I’m gonna guess the sequel was even worse, though.
I’ve mentioned to people that the temperature at the south pole could go up 20 degrees, and if the moisture content went up as well, and we got a LOT of precipitation where there is little now, we could see a massive increase in the polar ice cap even though temperatures warmed, since the average would still be way below freezing.
Sure, over-simplistic, but it at least makes people think.
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My theory is that the earth is a self regulating entity. This is born out by the amount of time it has been able to support life in its many forms. Even after catastrophic events it recovers and carries on. Our contribution to this great drama is miniscule to say the least.
And the Dalton Gang hideout was down in Southwest Kansas...believe it was Meade Kans...bout 80 miles out of Dodge City.
bumpity bump bump.
QUOTED FROM ICE AGE NOW WEBSITE -
Cold and rain records tumble in Alice Springs, Australia (I missed this earlier, so am listing it now.) - 20 Sep 10 - The Alice Springs district did not only experience its coldest September day on record, but some areas have already broken the rainfall record for the month - and there are still 10 days to go.
On Thursday, temperatures in Alice Springs did not make it over the 11.6C mark on thermometers, bringing the coldest September day to the Alice since the beginning of temperature recordings in 1942.
Uluru experienced its wettest September on record, while other locations across the district were also due to break their records, after a cloud band brought “good falls” to Central Australia.
Around 30mm to 50mm of rain had been recorded in the Alice district throughout last week, but several locations, including Jervois and Atula - northeast of Alice Springs - had up to 94mm of rain.
Thanks to Ray Baney for this link
Snow time in springtime across Victoria - 17 Oct 10 - Snow fell as low as 500 metres above sea level, including Mount Dandenong, around Ballarat and the ranges north-east of Melbourne.
Kinglake Central farm manager Sue Rabjones said the snow was like a ‘’white wonderland ... about five to six inches deep in some places.’’
Melbourne shivered through its coldest October morning in 15 years yesterday when temperatures dropped to 4.7 degrees. Mount Buller recorded the state’s lowest temperature with -6.9 degrees.
Senior forecaster Dean Stewart said 34 mm of rain fell across Melbourne yesterday, filling dams to nearly 50 per cent.
Thanks to Ray Baney and Lance Pidgeon for this link
“We’re supposed to be in spring here,” says Ray.
Cold snap brings snow to Victoria - 16 Oct 10 - The Bureau of Meteorology’s Richard Carlyon says snow has fallen down to 500 metres overnight ... Mt Dandenong, the Kinglake Ranges and around Ballarat.
“Measuring off the street out the front of the road, there’s 40 millimetres of snow on the road, just putting a ruler into the ground,” said Kinglake resident Ashley Richard.
Meanwhile, the state’s north-east is still on flood-watch after rainfall of 50 to 90 millimetres.
Thanks to Ray Baney for this link
Eastern Australia “massive cold front” - 17 Oct 10 - Parts of southern NSW were declared a natural disaster area yesterday after flooding, gales and snow forced the evacuation of hundreds of residents, damaged dozens of homes and closed major roads.
The massive cold front that passed over NSW, Victoria and southern Queensland late on Friday and early yesterday left the State Emergency Services with 1300 requests for help.
Plummeting temperatures brought unseasonal snowfalls to the Blue Mountains, southern highlands and southern tablelands as well as the cities of Orange and Bathurst, temporarily closing the Mid Western Highway. Snow also fell in Canberra.
Thanks to Lance Pidgeon and Wanda for this link
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Everybody feels that colder winters are in store. The moonbats are doing everything they can to dispel that and call it “change”. Change from What........Even a vacation meeting in Cancun couldn’t help them. Tell these bastards to shove their GLOBAL CLIMATE MONETARY REDISTRIBUTION up their ass.
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