Precious Metals and the Dollar’s Next Big Move (Gold is trending down, dollar rallying)

The Gold and Oil Guy ^ | 01/14/2011

[SeekAndFind]

There is a potentially big setup in precious metals sector along with the dollar which looks like its about to unfold. Since mid-October of last year gold started to show signs of distribution selling. Only a month later in November silver started warning us that some big players were taking some profits off the table also. Distribution selling is easy to spot on the charts. In short you will see heavy volume selling accompanied with strong moves to the downside.

Now if we look at the US Dollar chart we see the exact opposite price action. We see sharp rallies during October and November of last year. It’s normal to say that gold and silver move inverse to the Dollar so this price action makes perfect sense.

The interesting thing with the US Dollar is that in Nov-December it rallied breaking through a key resistance level and has been consolidating above support ever since. If this bullish pattern (bull flag) plays out, then it’s just a matter of time before the dollar makes another strong rally upwards, which will put downward pressure on stocks and commodities.

Take a look at the charts below…

US Dollar Daily Chart
The 50 period moving average has provided key support/resistance levels for the previous trends and if it holds true going forward then we are not far from another rally in the dollar.

Gold Futures Daily Chart
Gold moves inverse to the dollar so if we get a higher dollar then look for gold to have a stair step pattern lower.

Silver Futures Daily Chart
Silver looks about ready to do the same thing as gold.

Precious Metals and Dollar Trading Conclusion:

In short, we could see a major shift in momentum from up to down in both precious metals and the equities market. Keep in mind the market has a way of dragging out patterns/moves so while the chart looks bearish and I think a reversal is near, things could just chop around for another month or so before a definitive breakout is made. Choppy market conditions are great for trading options but no short term trend traders like myself. This is why you don’t want to anticipate moves (pick a top). Currently I am neutral on metals and the dollar waiting for a setup which must have clear risk/reward characteristics.

[Mr. K]

I am stocking up on food and supplies. those will be worth more than gold

[bunkerhill7]

I think World`s demand for Chinese rare earths will spur gold-for-RE factor.

Chinese will not take US dollars for RE`s;

They want GOLD.

[blam]

Precious metal buying opportunity.

[hosepipe]

Yes by all means sell GOLD.... <<- TO ME...

[bunkerhill7]

Rare Earths are up 167% to almost 5,000 % in last 6 months

www.agorafinancial.com

[Attention Surplus Disorder]

I sent about 3.5 kilos of scrap silver to a refiner for processing. That should be enough to create a pretty serious DUMP.

Although I really like silver and own a lot of it, I don’t think silver “owns” any price level much above $25.

[verdugo]

what is rare earth?

[verdugo]

As of 2007, the 95% of Americans held only 30% of liquid money. The elites (the top 5%) are just manipulating the different investment vehicles to swindle the rest out of the populace. Gold, and commodities, are up now, they will take a dump soon, just like real estate did. Then no one will want gold and silver for years (it happened in the 80’s).

Save money to own a house, don't use credit card debt (that's how they milk the non-investors), don't fall for all the advertising telling you that you must have that 100” TV in your 8 x 12 living room (that's how they get the non-investors). Don't invest or speculate in things that you don't understand why they go up or down (stocks, commodities,bonds). Lay, low save your money. Don't be a sucker.

[SeekAndFind]

FACT BOX : WHAT ARE RARE EARTHS

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE69P4JW20101026

[mountainlion]

I am stocking up on food and supplies. those will be worth more than gold

I am sgocking up on lead to keep my food supplies.

[dangerdoc]

I can see a dollar rally hurting metal and commodities. Can you explain how hit would put downward pressure on stocks?

I can see a strong dollar hurting exports but wouldn’t attracting forein investors counter ballance the effect?

I’m obviously not an economist.

[BfloGuy]

Lay, low save your money. Don't be a sucker.

I wish you were right, but when they've cut the dollar's purchasing power by 25% through inflation, that 100" TV will be looking pretty sweet. Unfortunately, we may be heading into a time when only tangible goods are worth anything.

Also, I think those people who dismiss gold as a substitute currency are being a little hasty. If the dollar begins to collapse, I suspect that savvy merchants will take to accepting gold quite readily.

It won't trade at its published dollar-value -- it will be accepted at some discount rate. But it will be accepted and it will still be worth more than the dollars spent to buy it.

All that said, buying it purely as an investment right now is probably very foolish.

[Thombo2]

Thnx for the post-very informative.

[panaxanax]

“Yes by all means sell GOLD.... <<- TO ME...”

Leave some for me because I’m buying as fast as and as much as I can! Gold & silver ‘correcting’ today. Good day to buy.

This morning I bought 46 ounces of vintage Engelhard silver bullion (10 ozt. bars) & 1 ozt. ‘Prospectors’ today at $27.00. (It helps when you have a friend that owns a small refinery).

The core problem with the global economy is not going away. Talk about nations going back to the gold standard is very real and will prove profitable to those who act on hoarding Precious Metals (PM’s).

Got the guns.
Got the ammo.
Got the food.
Got the water. (new well)
Property paid for in full.
Truck paid for in full.
No debts.
Got the Silver and Gold.

Bring it on!

BUY, BUY, BUY!

[Mrs. B.S. Roberts]

project ping

[Attention Surplus Disorder]

&*$&^*#$^% silver CLOCKED!

[Bloody Sam Roberts]

I am stocking up on food and supplies. those will be worth more than gold

So you are willing to take the loss if the dollar tanks, loses it's standing as the world's reserve currency and are left with a pile of useless greenbacks? Not me. I'm stocked up on food and water and supplies but I'll move to protect my other assets before the US Treasury devalues the dollar.

[verdugo]

re: people who dismiss gold as a substitute currency are being a little hasty. ....All that said, buying it purely as an investment right now is probably very foolish.

Good points I agree.

Here's my experience. I worked in foreign trade for 20+ years, all over South America, sky rocketing inflation was a common occurrence in country after country. What worked? Not real estate, it plummeted. Gold didn't fare well during
that time, and it was easy to have stolen. The only thing that kept it's value was the US dollar. The only thing that worked was having a job, earning money and spending it a quickly as you got, converting the rest to dollars and sending them to a USA account.

Gold could plummet to $400 an ounce, but the bankers, that make their living by creating money out of thin air, can only make money if the dollar is accepted by others. The US Dollar will loose it's value, but it will be a slow process. They will do everything to maintain the dollar. All the worlds bank have dollars, they have to play the game too, or they loose. All major currencies are the same, if the dollar goes so will they. It's all about making money out of thin air, the bankers have that monopoly from all the worlds governments, they're are not going to loose that. They control all the real assets markets, and have made fortunes buying low, and selling high, and discrediting every real asset. The last to go in the USA was real estate. They invented a way of turning it into a marketable product (packaged mortgage loans) that they could manipulate to create a bubble, then burst it, and thus discredit the last remaining investment we had in the USA. Now no one wants the same real estate that they were climbing over each other to buy at three times what is being asked now. THE OBJECTIVE IS TO DISCREDIT ALL REAL ASSET INVESTMENTS, and thus raise the dollar to the status of the safest investment. Now as you know, Cash is king! (That was the plan), no one has any, they lost it all in all those "bad" investments. No, they swindled us with their manipulated investments.

[hosepipe]

[ Got the guns. Got the ammo. Got the food. Got the water. new well) Property paid for in full. Truck paid for in full. No debts. Got the Silver and Gold. ]

When they can tax some property you own.. THEN you are renting it from the government..