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No, the iPad Is Not Killing Microsoft's Business
Daily Finance ^ | 02/01/2011 | Kevin Kelleher

Posted on 02/01/2011 12:12:05 PM PST by SeekAndFind

The iPad is killing Microsoft (MSFT), at least if you believe the meme that has been spreading in the stock market.

After Microsoft reported its second-quarter earnings last Thursday, the stock fell 4% despite stronger-than-expected financials and several analysts raising their price targets on the stock. But investors were taken in by the idea that Microsoft's future earnings are so much roadkill in the iPad Era.

Microsoft's quarterly revenue came in at $19.95 billion, above the $19.14 billion estimated by analysts, and its earnings of 77 cents a share beat the analysts' expectations of 68 cents per share. Revenue was especially strong in productivity software and gaming devices.

But the only thing investors seemed to focus on was the rise of the tablets and the decline of the netbooks.

It's true that tablets are eating into the market for netbooks and PCs in general. Gartner reckoned that PC shipments grew by 3.1% in the fourth quarter to 93.5 million units, a slower pace than the 4.8% it had estimated. But tablets are growing much, much faster: Strategy Analytics estimates sales of nearly 10 million tablets last quarter (77% of them iPads), up from virtually no tablet sales a year ago.

Don't Believe the Meme

But while memes are wonderful for culture, they may not be so great for financial markets. Microsoft may be a big, sprawling company, but it's hardly acting like a deer in the headlights facing a speeding Steve Jobs at the wheel. Given the decades-old and often bitter rivalry between Apple and Microsoft, that narrative is tempting. But a deeper look into Microsoft's report reveals a company that's surprisingly nimble for its size.

First of all, the idea that Microsoft can't create a phenomenon like the iPad anymore simply isn't true. The iPad sold 2 million units in its first 60 days. The Kinect sold four times as many, tapping mainstream interest much sooner. "Kinect is the fastest-selling consumer electronics device in history," Microsoft CFO Peter Klein said in a conference call with analysts.

What's especially interesting is that the Kinect sold so well despite the lack of buzz in the tech media. Comparing Google search and news trends for the word "Kinect" with that of "iPad," and you'll find that the iPad attracted much more of the public conversation. And yet the Kinect's 8 million sales in November and December surpassed the 7.3 million iPads that Apple sold in the entire fourth quarter.

True, the Kinect's $149 price tag is significantly less than the iPad's $499 starting price. But the Kinect's strong launch suggests that Microsoft hasn't lost its ability to produce innovative products that resonate with consumers.

Multifaceted Strength

In the fourth quarter, Microsoft also demonstrated its ability to maintain strong sales in a highly competitive market. Google (GOOG) has made it clear that, as its business customers grow more comfortable housing data and applications online (or "in the cloud," as it's colloquially called), it plans to go after Microsoft's business software. But Office 2010 sales were surprisingly strong, with license sales up more than 50% higher than the pace Office 2007 had at the same point after its launch.

Investors seemed put off by the 30% decline in revenue and the 40% drop in operating profit for Microsoft's Windows division, the segment that contains operating software for netbooks and PCs. The drop exacerbated concerns that Microsoft's core product was in decline.

But as Microsoft pointed out in its conference call, the 30% revenue drop was largely the result of deferred revenue that was recognized a year ago during the launch of Windows 7. Factoring out the effect of the Windows launch, Microsoft estimated growth around 3%, "in line with PC market growth." Again, 3% growth isn't terrific, but it's nowhere near as bad as the headline figure suggests.

Even if Microsoft's Windows revenue does start to slide in coming years, the company can weather the blow. Sure, Windows revenue makes up a quarter of Microsoft's total sales. But its business-software division -- including Office, as well as SharePoint and Exchange -- contributes 30% of its revenue, and that division expanded its profit by 35% last quarter.

Other divisions are seeing similarly strong profit growth. Microsoft's server and tools division, which makes up another 22% of revenue, saw its profit rise by 21%. And the entertainment group, which makes Xbox and Kinect and accounts for 19% of revenue, posted profit growth of a whopping 86%.

Is Microsoft Undervalued?

In spite of all this growth, Microsoft's price-to-earnings ratio lounges at 12 on a historical basis and a mere 10 based on estimated earnings for the current fiscal year. That's well below the average P/E ratio of 18 for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index. Such is the power of the meme in the minds of Microsoft investors.

None of this means to play down the challenges that Microsoft faces as tablets and smartphones become more integrated into consumers' lives. The company faces an uphill battle in those markets. Windows Phone 7 is good enough to compete with Android and iOS, but Microsoft waited too long to enter the smartphone race. The same seems to be happening with tablets, as early reviews of Windows Phone 7 tablets haven't been promising.

But we've been hearing for years that PCs are on the decline in an era of cloud computing. And in response, Microsoft has been positioning itself for a post-PC world for some time, building on areas of strength that could serve it in the future – especially business software and video games.

The threat of tablets to Microsoft is real and shouldn't be trivialized. But neither should Microsoft's ability to keep sales and profits growing in other areas of its broad-based businesses.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Computers/Internet; Society
KEYWORDS: apple; ilovebillgates; ipad; iwanthim; iwanthimbad; microsoft; microsoftfanboys; u3t2sr3nmig3e2c3a
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1 posted on 02/01/2011 12:12:13 PM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Was considering an iPad to try.

Since Jobs replaced himself with a sodomite, don’t think I’ll be sending money apple’s way anytime soon.

Watch for the new iFag coming your way next year.


2 posted on 02/01/2011 12:17:06 PM PST by Secret Agent Man (I'd like to tell you, but then I'd have to kill you.)
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To: Secret Agent Man

I thought a person’s sexual preference is his private business... Is he touting this to the whole world?


3 posted on 02/01/2011 12:23:09 PM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

First, notebooks started taking over for desktops, but MS had a solid position in notebooks.

Then netbooks started taking over for notebooks, and Microsoft wasn’t in that market. However, Microsoft was quite successful at reusing its old Windows XP and later Windows 7 in netbooks.

Now we have tablets. Microsoft can’t leverage Windows anymore, because it doesn’t work. Microsoft can no longer take advantage of the massive application base, because it doesn’t run on Windows Phone 7.

Microsoft is starting off in a market dominated by Apple with Android coming up fast. Microsoft is going to need some leverage. I’ve already seen they’re trying to leverage in business with connectivity with their enterprise software.

But for the consumers Microsoft only has two things. They have a large base of Microsoft developers for whom a switch from desktop Windows to WP7 won’t be too difficult. But even then that will just get WP7 up to app availability parity with the competition, not put Microsoft ahead. Then they can hope tying to XBox Live can give the platform a much needed boost.

It’s going to be a tough uphill climb for Microsoft in this. Microsoft will fail if they don’t finally get management that can lead instead of follow. They obviously have enough smart engineers and developers.


4 posted on 02/01/2011 12:26:19 PM PST by antiRepublicrat
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To: Secret Agent Man
Since Jobs replaced himself with a sodomite

Tim Cook has been running the day-to-day of Apple for four years. And the gay thing is just a rumor. Apparently being a single fitness freak makes you gay these days.

5 posted on 02/01/2011 12:31:43 PM PST by antiRepublicrat
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To: antiRepublicrat

That all sounds nice but you’ve got a basic problem:
notebooks still haven’t actually replaced desktops, nor have they been replaced by netbooks or tablets. There’s still a very strong market for full sized desktop computers, and a strong market for nearly full sized notebook computers. Netbooks and smaller are nice for casual use, but they’re too small to be primary computers for real use.

Following is often a good market position, keeps you from wasting money on fads that go away quickly. This is by no means the first time people thought tablets were going to take over. Certainly they’ve been more successful this time, but they still aren’t taking over.


6 posted on 02/01/2011 12:32:06 PM PST by discostu (this is definitely not my confused face)
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To: Secret Agent Man

Tim Cook is a sodomite? I thought he was a married man with a family!


7 posted on 02/01/2011 12:39:43 PM PST by BunnySlippers (I love BULL MARKETS . . .)
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To: antiRepublicrat

Oh, and anyone who uses ANY Apple product is gay. I hear it here all the time so it must be true.

Forget that Bill Gates Foundation spreads all sorts of gay/AIDS propaganda all over the place. Deep pockets.


8 posted on 02/01/2011 12:41:25 PM PST by BunnySlippers (I love BULL MARKETS . . .)
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To: discostu
notebooks still haven’t actually replaced desktops, nor have they been replaced by netbooks or tablets.

It's been sliding that direction for years. Year after year, notebook sales eat into desktop sales, so that they are now over half of computer purchases. Netbooks are eating a bit into notebooks, but I think they'll start getting replaced with tablets doing the same thing.

but they’re too small to be primary computers for real use.

If an iPad could stand on its own, that is talking to the cloud out of the box instead of tethering to a PC, I know many people who could use it as their only computer. They need web, email, photo organizing, playing their small music collection, and maybe some Hulu and Netflix. The iPad does all of that, and more.

Following is often a good market position, keeps you from wasting money on fads that go away quickly.

The trick is to invest in R&D for things you know won't go away quickly, or be able to divert. The iPhone was supposed to be the iPad, but the technology wasn't there at the time for a tablet, so Apple diverted the R&D to become the iPhone. Then Apple diversified the use of the technology to become the iPod Touch. Then technology advanced, and you have the iPad.

9 posted on 02/01/2011 12:42:32 PM PST by antiRepublicrat
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To: Secret Agent Man

You should never be allowed to use any Apple product. Go with MSFT which funds 100,000s of abortions worldwide.

You can’t go wrong there.


10 posted on 02/01/2011 12:46:22 PM PST by BunnySlippers (I love BULL MARKETS . . .)
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To: discostu

RE: Following is often a good market position, keeps you from wasting money on fads that go away quickly


Microsoft has most often been a follower and not the original innovator of products.

Their singular talent is to leverage their dominance in Windows and then use that and the tremendous cash they have to kill the competition who comes up with the product first.

Count them -— Word Perfect, Lotus 1-2-3, Netscape, Novel Netware, etc.

The above products were the originals in Word Processing, Spreadsheet, Internet Browser and PC Networks. Then came Microsoft who overcame them with Word, Excel ( eventually all bundled into Office ), Internet Explorer, Microsoft Networks, etc, which all but killed or dominated the competition.

Even in the games space, they first came out with crappy products but had enough money to improve them to a point where they became competitive against original leaders Ninetendo and SONY, eating up market share ( Kinect/XBOX ).

In the Software Development area, Companies like Borland and Symantec had their software development tools until Microsoft came up with Visual Studio and then, .NET which relegated the rest into also runs.

In the database field, SQL Server is now King in the Windows environment, relegating Oracle into second place (of course Oracle runs on other operating system environments which makes them still the #1 database provider in the world, but not in the Windows space ).

The only difference I see this time when it comes to the Smart Phone and Pad business is THEY HAVE REAL COMPETITION IN THE OPERATING SYSTEM BUSINESS.

Notice that Microsoft succeeded in dominating the opposition in most of the other businesses by virtue of their dominance in the Operating Systems space.

Not in the Smart Phone and Pad business they aren’t any longer. Apple and Google have their own OS which developers are now getting to be familiar with. It looks like a different ball game this time.


11 posted on 02/01/2011 12:49:53 PM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: antiRepublicrat

And yet when I walk around my workplace I see desktops out numbering notebooks at least 10 to 1, same around my wife’s workplace, and even people’s homes. Desktops have certain conveniences that notebooks can’t fight with: you get more computer for less dollars, a bigger monitor, and a bigger keyboard. All notebooks offer is portability, which not that many people are actually interested in. I doubt highly notebooks are over half the total sales, maybe within individual computer makers, but that ignores the large and highly difficult to track local shop custom built which are going to be all desktops.

Meanwhile netbooks aren’t eating into notebooks for two primary reasons: they’re even smaller than notebooks so they have all the same problems even more so, and tablets have seriously stolen the netbooks’ thunder.

The cloud is a joke. It’s an attempt to get us back to the dumb terminals of the 90s. The iPad might “do” all that, but it does it on a screen smaller than any desktop monitor on the market. The smaller the screen the less generally useful, especially for things like watching Netflix, people just aren’t going to be signing up to watch the latest Michael Bay explosion festival on an 8” screen, maybe as a supplemental when they’re traveling, but not as a primary when they’re home.

The trick is to not waste money on R&D which leads to a technology that has no market niche. Lots of car companies right now are real happy they didn’t bother with the tech track that lead GM to the Volt. Back in the days of the failed Newton plenty of companies were glad they were ignoring tablets. There’s a lot to be said for letting other people flush their money down the toilet. Especially in the high cycle world of computing, with technology generations now coming in months being in on the second or even third wave isn’t a death sentence. Just look at the other tech article here about Android crossing the 50% line in smart phones, 3rd in, 1st in sales.


12 posted on 02/01/2011 12:54:07 PM PST by discostu (this is definitely not my confused face)
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To: antiRepublicrat

Microsoft will do fine with tablets. Remember, it is an emerging market.....you do not need to be first to dominate in the long run.

Microsoft is planning its next version of Windows to be optimized for touch. It is also planning on supporting the Tegra chips (Tegra 3 is rumored to be wicked!) which are optimized for tablets.

Once Microsoft can offer a tablet that appeals to enterprise users and runs Office applications smoothly, it will do just fine.

Remember, tablets have been around for a long time, Apple did not invent the segment, they just applied their iPhone OS to a large screen as the starting point. A great idea in the short run, but like any new product, nobody really knows where it will go in the long run.


13 posted on 02/01/2011 12:54:41 PM PST by Erik Latranyi (Too many conservatives urge retreat when the war of politics doesn't go their way.)
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To: discostu

That all sounds nice but you’ve got a basic problem:
notebooks still haven’t actually replaced desktops, nor have they been replaced by netbooks or tablets. There’s still a very strong market for full sized desktop computers, and a strong market for nearly full sized notebook computers. Netbooks and smaller are nice for casual use, but they’re too small to be primary computers for real use.


Bingo!

The iPad’s niche is different than most computers. Its competition is things like the Kindle & Nook, and smartphones.

Nobody that is doing serious work with their computer is dumping it for an iPad. Can you imagine writing a book on an iPad?

It’s interesting to note that the story compares iPad sales to XBox Kinect sales. That pretty much sums up the market niche of both. They are pleasure devices, not work devices.


14 posted on 02/01/2011 1:10:39 PM PST by Brookhaven (Moderates = non-thinkers)
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To: SeekAndFind; ~Kim4VRWC's~; 1234; 50mm; Abundy; Action-America; acoulterfan; AFreeBird; Airwinger; ..
Is the iPad killing Microsoft? Absurd question, but someone posed this straw man and then is answering it...PING

Please, No Flame Wars!
Discuss technical issues, software, and hardware.
Don't attack people!

Don't respond to the Anti-Apple Thread Trolls!
 PLEASE IGNORE THEM!!!

 


Apple iPad Ping!

If you want on or off the Mac Ping List, Freepmail me.

15 posted on 02/01/2011 1:16:57 PM PST by Swordmaker (This tag line is a Microsoft product "insult" free zone.)
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To: BunnySlippers

Where on earth did you hear that????


16 posted on 02/01/2011 1:24:57 PM PST by Seattle Conservative (God Bless and protect our troops)
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To: SeekAndFind

Dominating the desktop OS could still help MS in the micro-portable (smartphone/ tablet) market though. Because in the long run what makes the micro portables useful as anything other than a toy is their ability to get data from an actual computer, or better still the network. You might not want to write a Word doc on your micro but you’ll probably want to read it, which means getting that doc to it in some way, which means the micro has to communicate with Windows eventually. Want to sync up your calendar? That probably means talking to an Exchange server, or the very least an Outlook client.

It’s funny because the Apple fans always talk about how Apple products form this continuum that works together like it’s some unique thing. That’s how MS has been leveraging products forever, if you want to stick a page of a spreadsheet in a document and email it MS has the apps that talk to each other very smoothly so you can do it often without even realizing how many different apps you’re using. And if you want that thing to get picked up by a tablet you can pretty much guarantee it’ll be easier if that tablet is running still more MS code.


17 posted on 02/01/2011 1:28:01 PM PST by discostu (this is definitely not my confused face)
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To: Brookhaven

Anybody whose job involves more than 5 hours a day of working on a computer will very quickly, especially if they have corrected vision, want the biggest monitor they can get their hands on. Even if all they do is e-mail and webforms and other things the tablets can handle easily, they’re still going to want it attached to a real monitor and real keyboard.

For people that need to be portable, for people whose productivity is in meatspace but they still need access to info on computers I can see the tablet becoming their primary silicone, probably replacing a laptop that they’re constantly dropping and breaking because too big and cumbersome. But much like how the laptop didn’t replace the desktop for us full time desk jockeys there’s no way we’ll be trading desktops for tablets.


18 posted on 02/01/2011 1:33:27 PM PST by discostu (this is definitely not my confused face)
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To: antiRepublicrat

If it’s ‘just a rumor’ then Tim can sue the following media outlets:

http://www.advocate.com/News/Daily_News/2011/01/20/Is_Apples_New_Boss_Gay/

http://gawker.com/5736917/meet-apples-new-boss-the-most-powerful-gay-man-in-silicon-valley

http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2011/01/21/new-apple-boss-tim-cook-described-as-most-powerful-gay-man-in-silicon-valley/


19 posted on 02/01/2011 1:37:31 PM PST by Secret Agent Man (I'd like to tell you, but then I'd have to kill you.)
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To: SeekAndFind
Apple and Google have their own OS which developers are now getting to be familiar with.

Apples OS is *nix based, and developers have been familiar with that for years. And I'm still waiting to see the open-source Exchange killer.

20 posted on 02/01/2011 1:42:49 PM PST by tacticalogic
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To: Secret Agent Man
Was considering an iPad to try.

Since Jobs replaced himself with a sodomite,

don’t think I’ll be sending money apple’s way anytime soon.

Watch for the new iFag coming your way next year.

Got a link ?

21 posted on 02/01/2011 1:51:12 PM PST by Uri’el-2012 (Psalm 119:174 I long for Your salvation, YHvH, Your law is my delight.)
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To: UriÂ’el-2012

post 19


22 posted on 02/01/2011 1:59:49 PM PST by Secret Agent Man (I'd like to tell you, but then I'd have to kill you.)
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To: Brookhaven

A tablet will not replace my desktop computer(s), but it will replace my laptop.

I wanted a device to take to meetings. I wanted to be able to record at least the audio. I wanted to be able to have the dozen, if not hundreds, of catalogs that support my sales all on one device, electronically. I wanted to be able to share this information with others in the meeting.

A small laptop seemed to be the solution, but battery life was often an issue, requiring me to carry around the power brick and cord. Audio recording worked, sort of, but the built in microphones tended to be VERY directional, so I would have to set up an external microphone, which looked stupid and was one more thing to carry. As for the catalogs, while I could pull them up on the screen, sharing meant turning the laptop, now tethered by a power cord and microphone, towards the customer.

The iPad is perfect for my uses. The longer battery life means no power cord in the field. It seems to have a much more omnidirectional microphone that picks up conversations just fine. I am able to access all the catalogs I need really fast with a wi-fi connection and still pretty fast when running on the cellular network. It is very cool to be sitting in a meeting talking with a prospect who is telling you his needs and just about the time he has stopped speaking I have several possible solutions on screen that I can just hand him. It has changed the way we work with clients.


23 posted on 02/01/2011 2:00:24 PM PST by Crusher138 ("Then conquer we must, for our cause it is just")
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To: Secret Agent Man
Do you trust a "gay" Rag ?

24 posted on 02/01/2011 2:05:56 PM PST by Uri’el-2012 (Psalm 119:174 I long for Your salvation, YHvH, Your law is my delight.)
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To: SeekAndFind
Notice that Microsoft succeeded in dominating the opposition in most of the other businesses by virtue of their dominance in the Operating Systems space.
Not in the Smart Phone and Pad business they aren’t any longer. Apple and Google have their own OS which developers are now getting to be familiar with. It looks like a different ball game this time.

I think that is a very important observation. When Microsoft became dominant, hardware had become a cheap commodity, but operating systems were hard to come by. Today, the operating systems are much easier to come by. You're right. It's a very different ballgame this time around. No one operating system is going to dominate. Providers will have to compete on the total user experience and convenience provided by a device.

25 posted on 02/01/2011 2:19:34 PM PST by stripes1776
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To: discostu
Just look at the other tech article here about Android crossing the 50% line in smart phones, 3rd in, 1st in sales.

But you are wrong... Android is NOT 1st in "sales," not where it counts: the exchange of something of value for cash. Android is first in GIVING IT AWAY! Apple is 1st where it counts: at the bank with 51% of all cell phone sales profits!

26 posted on 02/01/2011 2:29:17 PM PST by Swordmaker (This tag line is a Microsoft product "insult" free zone.)
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To: Swordmaker

53% of the market share is 53% of the market share no matter how much you shout.


27 posted on 02/01/2011 2:34:47 PM PST by discostu (this is definitely not my confused face)
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To: martin_fierro; Ernest_at_the_Beach

http://new.lowendmac.com/ed/leeds/11al/other-side.html

[snip] Ubuntu is great. Rakarrack is great. That old PC, with a few tweaks and a few upcoming upgrades, will be really great.

What’s not so great? CRT monitors in a small space.

That’s where I had to get really creative. Since I don’t have a flatscreen to spare, at least for the moment, I had to come up with a really neat alternative. My choice: my iPad.

Yes, the PC is now a semi-headless server, controlled via my iPad with TeamViewer (my favorite remote access app for iOS, Mac, Windows, and Linux - and possibly Android too). Even when optimized for speed, it has a little bit of a lag, but it’s light on the CPU, and it does what I ask it to do. [unsnip]


28 posted on 02/01/2011 2:46:16 PM PST by SunkenCiv (The 2nd Amendment follows right behind the 1st because some people are hard of hearing.)
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To: UriÂ’el-2012

They do have gaydar. They are the ones that out people. I would believe they don’t want to get sued for libel. Specially a guy that has a lot of money.


29 posted on 02/01/2011 2:59:14 PM PST by Secret Agent Man (I'd like to tell you, but then I'd have to kill you.)
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To: Secret Agent Man
They do have gaydar. They are the ones that out people. I would believe they don’t want to get sued for libel. Specially a guy that has a lot of money.

If you are not planning to preach the
gospel to him, what is your concern ?
shalom b'SHEM Yah'shua HaMashiach
30 posted on 02/01/2011 3:13:01 PM PST by Uri’el-2012 (Psalm 119:174 I long for Your salvation, YHvH, Your law is my delight.)
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To: discostu
The cloud is a joke. It’s an attempt to get us back to the dumb terminals of the 90s. The iPad might “do” all that, but it does it on a screen smaller than any desktop monitor on the market. The smaller the screen the less generally useful, especially for things like watching Netflix, people just aren’t going to be signing up to watch the latest Michael Bay explosion festival on an 8” screen, maybe as a supplemental when they’re traveling, but not as a primary when they’re home.

There speaks a man who does not use it every day to be productive. I do. So do hundreds of thousands of others. You denigrate something you do not use, so you know not of what you speak. The cloud opens my iPad to terabytes of data that I DON'T HAVE TO CARRY WITH ME, or put at security risk. The ability to access my office files from anywhere makes me far more productive.

31 posted on 02/01/2011 3:16:52 PM PST by Swordmaker (This tag line is a Microsoft product "insult" free zone.)
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To: tacticalogic
Apples OS is *nix based, and developers have been familiar with that for years. And I'm still waiting to see the open-source Exchange killer.

And your point is? Both OSX and iOS work just fine with Exchange... so why kill it?

32 posted on 02/01/2011 3:18:23 PM PST by Swordmaker (This tag line is a Microsoft product "insult" free zone.)
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To: Swordmaker

Sure the cloud is awesome up until somebody’s internet connection gets hosed. Wonder how the cloud was doing for Egypt. Stop shouting.


33 posted on 02/01/2011 3:20:23 PM PST by discostu (this is definitely not my confused face)
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To: Secret Agent Man

One example from the articles: “After Cook was profiled as a “lifelong bachelor” and “intensely private” elsewhere, we wondered if he might be gay. We’ve since heard from two well-placed sources that this is indeed the case”

Rumor. Might be true, but it is interesting that all this gay talk is only relatively recent.


34 posted on 02/01/2011 3:21:17 PM PST by antiRepublicrat
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To: Secret Agent Man

It gets more fun.

Two of your articles just quote the gawker article, which acknowledges he hasn’t come out as gay.

The best part: “Cook would be, by far, the most powerful openly gay executive in tech, trailed by Microsoft’s openly lesbian HR chief Lisa Brummel and by Megan Smith, the former PlanetOut CEO now working as Google’s vice president of new business development.”

Time for you to boycott Microsoft and Google.


35 posted on 02/01/2011 3:24:04 PM PST by antiRepublicrat
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To: discostu
Is it? Only one analyst found that statistic... and he had to squish the data to come up with that figure. Nielson, a much more prestigious polling company, has different figures:

Nielsen Q410 U.S. mobile OS market share: Apple iOS 28%, RIM BlackBerry 27%, Google Android 27%

Tuesday, February 01, 2011 - 04:15 PM EST

"The competition between smartphone operating systems is a heated one. When it comes to the installed base, U.S. mobile consumers who already own smartphones, Apple's iOS leads with 28%, followed closely by RIM BlackBerry and Google's Android, each with 27%," Don Kellogg, Senior Manager, Telecom Practice Research and Insights, reports for The Nielsen Company.


36 posted on 02/01/2011 3:34:18 PM PST by Swordmaker (This tag line is a Microsoft product "insult" free zone.)
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To: Swordmaker
The point is that the claim that developers are just now getting familiar with that OS, and that's the only reason any Microsoft software has an advantage doesn't hold up.

You know this. Why do you try to prevent challenges to obviously flawed arguments?

37 posted on 02/01/2011 4:36:05 PM PST by tacticalogic
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To: antiRepublicrat

I don’t use Google and I’ve never bought a windows product that wasn’t bundled to hardware I was buying.

I don’t know why YOU have such a beef with someone stating their own reasons as to why they won’t buy a product. I never said YOU had to change your buying habits.


38 posted on 02/01/2011 5:12:45 PM PST by Secret Agent Man (I'd like to tell you, but then I'd have to kill you.)
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To: discostu

It’s not desktops vs tablets. They augment each other.
The laptop was a compromise, cramming as much desktop into a portable box as possible - incuding what did not need to be portable.
The tablet makes portable the needs which must be portable, leaving the desktop to supply the non portable needs behind. I can take email, surfing, remote access, etc anywhere now, while leaving the giant screens, multiple cores, and terabytes of storage on the desk.


39 posted on 02/02/2011 3:44:02 AM PST by ctdonath2 (Great children's books - http://www.UsborneBooksGA.com)
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To: Secret Agent Man

Just not a good idea to change your buying habits on unconfirmed rumor, especially when your alternatives suffer from the same problem, or one close to it.


40 posted on 02/02/2011 5:45:05 AM PST by antiRepublicrat
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To: ctdonath2

It’s not that way to you or me, but many folks, including the person I was replying to, seem to think tablets will replace desktops.


41 posted on 02/02/2011 7:26:53 AM PST by discostu (this is definitely not my confused face)
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To: Swordmaker

Even that analysis shows being 3rd into the market isn’t the kiss of death, which was the point of my statement. Whether they’ve got the big lead NPD says or the functional 3 way tie like Nielson says, to go from where they were 15 months ago to either reading is substantial. And if those trend lines continue even Nielson is going to have Android with over 50% of the market by Labor Day.


42 posted on 02/02/2011 7:29:47 AM PST by discostu (this is definitely not my confused face)
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To: antiRepublicrat

Generally the gay rags don’t out someone who isn’t gay.


43 posted on 02/02/2011 8:13:17 AM PST by Secret Agent Man (I'd like to tell you, but then I'd have to kill you.)
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To: discostu
Even that analysis shows being 3rd into the market isn’t the kiss of death, which was the point of my statement. Whether they’ve got the big lead NPD says or the functional 3 way tie like Nielson says, to go from where they were 15 months ago to either reading is substantial. And if those trend lines continue even Nielson is going to have Android with over 50% of the market by Labor Day.

That's possible if you ignore the data from the last month that has Android stalling on the news that Verizon, it's major US seller, is getting the iPhone in February. It can even be seen on that line graph at the end of Quarter4 2010 when the rumors became so strong that Android sales flattened. The quarterly trend charts show it clearly. Motorola, HG, and several of the other major Android makers have reported guidance for this quarter of sudden steep declines due to that data. When you can have the phone that all the others are attempting to copy, why settle for the copies?

44 posted on 02/02/2011 10:56:20 AM PST by Swordmaker (This tag line is a Microsoft product "insult" free zone.)
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To: Swordmaker

But again, my original point was that following is often a good business practice because it keeps you from wasting money on things that turned out to not be a good idea. My reference to Android was just as an example, and even if it levels off at 27% the fact that the really only entered the market 15 months ago demonstrates my point.

Your attempts to make this into an Android v iPhone pissing contest are 100% besides the point I was making, and frankly kind of pathetic.


45 posted on 02/02/2011 11:03:59 AM PST by discostu (this is definitely not my confused face)
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To: Erik Latranyi
Microsoft is planning its next version of Windows to be optimized for touch.

Way late. They won't be first or second to the market, something more like fourth.

It is also planning on supporting the Tegra chips

So is the competition, or supporting equivalents to the Tegra chips. Nobody really knows what Apple has planned, and they bought the company that designed the A4 and the current high-end Samsung SoC. I doubt that $120 million investment has been twiddling its thumbs for a year.

Once Microsoft can offer a tablet that appeals to enterprise users

RIM will have that covered pretty well before Microsoft even enters the picture. RIM is already extremely well established in the enterprise, even where the enterprise is otherwise Microsoft-based.

Apple did not invent the segment, they just applied their iPhone OS to a large screen as the starting point.

Tablets absolutely languished before the iPad. They were at best niche, not general market. Apple introduced the tablet that people actually want, and the competition is following Apple's lead. Remember, Apple is rarely the first to do something, but often the first to do something right.

A great idea in the short run, but like any new product, nobody really knows where it will go in the long run.

Given past performance, I'd say Apple does. Given past performance, I'd say Microsoft doesn't. Remember, Microsoft and HP ditched their new Windows 7 tablet as soon as the iPod was unveiled. Ballmer was the one who said there was no chance the iPhone would get significant marketshare.

46 posted on 02/02/2011 11:28:52 AM PST by antiRepublicrat
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To: discostu
And yet when I walk around my workplace I see desktops out numbering notebooks at least 10 to 1

Laptops overtook desktops in 2008, and the trend has been increasing since then. Half my workplace is laptops.

but that ignores the large and highly difficult to track local shop custom built

A tiny blip on the overall sales figures, and practically non-existent in the business use you mentioned above.

and tablets have seriously stolen the netbooks’ thunder.

That's true. First, netbooks ate into notebook sales, and now iPads have flatlined the formerly exploding netbook sales growth, and are eating into notebook sales in their place.

The cloud is a joke. It’s an attempt to get us back to the dumb terminals of the 90s.

Dumb terminals, a.k.a. thin clients, are starting to get quite popular in business again. For the iPad it means you can open it up and start using it without having to first connect it to any computer. It can easily be a person's only computing device if the tether requirement were eliminated. You don't need a desktop sized monitor for most things. I need one, preferably multiples, for what I do, but then I'm not most people just doing the common things. The problem with most geeks is that they forget few people are like they are.

people just aren’t going to be signing up to watch the latest Michael Bay explosion festival on an 8” screen, maybe as a supplemental when they’re traveling, but not as a primary when they’re home.

Then I'm glad the iPad has a bigger screen than that. People can use it while away, and the TV is already expected to have something Internet-based hooked up to it. Apple of course hopes that'll be an Apple TV.

The trick is to not waste money on R&D which leads to a technology that has no market niche.

Microsoft blows HUGE amounts of money on R&D that isn't directed towards any specific profit-producing products. It's actually pretty cool, kind of like the old Xerox PARC. But that's not to say Apple doesn't have any failures. Most of those were during Jobs' absence. His failures since returning are the Mac Cube (way too niche and expensive) and the Motorola ROKR (doing a phone the way phone companies did it, not the way he wanted to).

Back in the days of the failed Newton plenty of companies were glad they were ignoring tablets.

The Newton's failure was mostly an internal Apple problem. The product had no vision, creeping scope, restarts, redesigns, pretty much every aspect of product development hell you can think of. It was also too far ahead of its time, the state of technology made it too big and expensive. Apple learned that lesson, they've been working on a tablet since the early 2000s, even releasing much of the developed technology in the form of the iPhone, only to release a tablet when the technology could finally support it.

But it did have two positives. One, that's where the term PDA got its start. Two, ARM Holdings, designer of the ARM chip in everything these days, was started as a joint venture between Apple, Acorn and VLSI in order to produce the brains of the Newton.

Just look at the other tech article here about Android crossing the 50% line in smart phones, 3rd in, 1st in sales.

Microsoft, Nokia, Palm and RIM were in smartphones before Apple even started. Apple's trick was to revolutionize the market instead of just joining in against others already doing the same thing. Android leveraged the fact that iOS was available only on the iPhone and only on AT&T (pretty much the most hated network in the country). Now Microsoft joins in against both Apple and Android without anything superior and little to leverage.

Even though it has the advantage of being on phones from almost all manufacturers on all carriers, Android has never had close to 50%, although it did recently edge ahead of the iPhone. It has likely since fallen due to Verizon customers holding out for the iPhone, and this quarter's stats probably won't include Verizon allowing people to trade in their Androids for iPhones.

47 posted on 02/02/2011 12:37:08 PM PST by antiRepublicrat
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To: antiRepublicrat; Swordmaker
"Year after year, notebook sales eat into desktop sales, so that they are now over half of computer purchases. "

My last 'desktop' was an Apple//GS. I "went Mac" with a PowerBook 160, and I have owned nothing but laptops since. (I'm typing this on my 17" MacBook Pro...)

~~~~~~~

Maybe I'm "tablet-ready": I no longer own a mouse -- and since Apple ported MultiTouch to the MBP's trackpad, I doubt I'll ever own another mouse. Heck, I even do complex maps and detailed technical graphics with nothing but the trackpad...

48 posted on 02/02/2011 1:28:50 PM PST by TXnMA ("Allah": Satan's current alias...)
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To: antiRepublicrat

And yet every office I’ve ever worked in is at least 90% desktops, and even most of the people with laptops also have desktops. And no the one off shops are not a tiny blip, in most computer sales estimates “other” (which is where those shops live) account for over 25% of the sales, since nobody in “other” is selling laptops that’s fairly significant.

Netbooks never really ate into notebook sales, netbooks were a player long enough to eat anybody’s sales. And they have serious problems at a primary use machine, primarily that they’re all cloud dependent. Netbooks’ only real use is as a tablet for people that think touchscreens suck.

No thin clients aren’t getting popular in business again. They’re popular with certain prognosticators that have been wanting dumb terminals to comeback for the last 15 years, but in actual business not so much. They’re too dependent on the central server. With real computers at people’s desks when the central server goes down productivity may be hampered but it can still continue, when everybody is on a dumb terminal when the server pukes might as well send everybody home.

Anybody that spends more than 5 hours a day at the computer needs a full sized monitor. Individual tasks might not, but prolonged staring does. It’s one of the reasons why even places that give workers laptops tend to give them docking stations with full sized monitors. Bigger screens make less eye fatigue. I’m married to a non-geek, I’ve been to her office, 99% percent desktop machines, only the top management people, who tend to get called to meetings all over the place, have laptops. Everybody else has desktops, and while the tasks they perform on them probably don’t need a full desktop, and a few probably even could be done on a tablet, they spend all day in front of the computer. And the people in charge understand all day in front of the computer requires a full sized monitor, geeks or not.

General technology R&D is different and completely unrelated to the discussion. We’re talking about being first to bring a type of product to the market, or following. If you’re first to bring a type of product to the market you run the risk of finding out nobody wants that type of product, if you follow you let somebody else take that risk. It’s why Boeing has so far ignored the super jumbo jet market, they sucked up that risk on jets and on jumbo jets and decided to let somebody else stick their head in the noose this time, and given how poorly sales of the A380 are going I’m sure everybody involved in that decision is happy.

The Newton’s problem was that given the technology of the time tablets couldn’t be very useful, and nobody was really seeing that much of a need for portable computer.

See you just proved my point, following isn’t a bad thing, you just gotta follow smart. No MS definitely has things to leverage. One of the things that makes smartphones useful, especially in the business environment, is their ability to get data from full computer, e-mail, calendars, documents even. One of the things that MS has always excelled at is shunting data from one app to another. I have no doubt that in relatively short order, assuming that isn’t the case already, Windows Phones will have the easiest to use and smoothest interface for connecting to Outlook and Exchange, and the best apps for getting Word and Excel documents to and from the phone. That’s MS’ wheelhouse, making it so that if you use part of the MS ecosystem your life will be much easier if you take the whole thing.

According to NPD Android has 53%. Maybe they’re wrong but that’s what they say.


49 posted on 02/02/2011 3:09:32 PM PST by discostu (this is definitely not my confused face)
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To: Swordmaker

You stole my thunder...

I wonder what the iPhone market share would be if they were sold on all cell carriers, like the Android. It is easy for the Android to get 27% market share when all of the vendors sell phones using their OS. For Apple to corner 27% of the market with only one cell vendor offering their product...THAT’S impressive.


50 posted on 02/02/2011 3:19:27 PM PST by Crusher138 ("Then conquer we must, for our cause it is just")
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