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To: discostu
And yet every office I’ve ever worked in is at least 90% desktops

Yet there's the facts, notebook sales growth surpassed desktop growth in 2008. Since then desktop sales growth has flatlined and even declined, while notebooks have been experiencing 20%+ growth. That is until the iPad.

in most computer sales estimates “other” (which is where those shops live) account for over 25% of the sales

Take a graphic like below, "others" includes dozens of OEMs. Mom & pop is a tiny slice of that, and even they carry laptops.

Netbooks never really ate into notebook sales

Yes, they did, estimated up to 20%.

They’re too dependent on the central server.

You've never heard of redundant servers? The average desktop/server setup gives between one and two nines. Mainframes give five nines, less than six minutes a year downtime. Couple that with a thin client giving less down time than a desktop, and you have overall saved downtime.

Anybody that spends more than 5 hours a day at the computer needs a full sized monitor

Then it's good that desktop-replacement notebooks tend to be 15"-17". People used monitors that size and smaller for decades. I remember when a 17" monitor was considered a luxury (and it wasn't 17" viewable, more like 16").

If you’re first to bring a type of product to the market you run the risk of finding out nobody wants that type of product, if you follow you let somebody else take that risk.

Being too risk-averse makes for a poorly performing company.

See you just proved my point, following isn’t a bad thing, you just gotta follow smart.

That's kind of what Apple does. Apple didn't invent the mp3 player, the smartphone or the tablet. Apple watched what was out there, saw what was wrong and how it could be done better, and completely reinvented them. Microsoft's problem is that they see what's out there and just put out basically the same thing.

I have no doubt that in relatively short order, assuming that isn’t the case already, Windows Phones will have the easiest to use and smoothest interface for connecting to Outlook and Exchange

Apple is the expert at making things brain-dead easy, not Microsoft, and Apple already has the Outlook/Exchange thing down pretty well. Microsoft's leverage will be in XBox Live. Nobody else can do that.

According to NPD Android has 53%. Maybe they’re wrong but that’s what they say.

They're wrong, mid-thirties tops. And that doesn't count that the worldwide numbers were apparently inflated by the sales of Android forks.

51 posted on 02/03/2011 8:10:15 AM PST by antiRepublicrat
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To: antiRepublicrat

I don’t know how you can say “other” is a tiny slice when it’s got the biggest numbers in your chart, the 2009 “other” is bigger than any two non-others COMBINED, that ain’t tiny. And those might CARRY laptops but don’t BUILD laptops, the laptops they’re selling come from HP and Dell and Apple.

I’ve dealt with redundant servers enough to know that it’s no guarantee of 100% up time. I’ve see both sets go down repeatedly, or you find out your configuration wasn’t done right so the redundant server keeps going but half your clients can’t get to it. Thin clients centralize your failure points, and that almost always works out against you.

Laptops with 17” monitors are big, lots of people won’t carry them around. Not to mention expensive. You can get a lot more computing power for the dollar with a desktop, which is why if the worker is not mobile the computer the company gives them will 100% of the time be a desktop. It’s cheaper and more effective.

But define “too” risk averse. We’ve both now pointed out multiple companies that waited to enter a market until it was proven that it was really a market and then entered it and excelled. That’s not “too risk averse” that’s “exactly the right amount of risk averse”. Which is my point, following can be a very smart business strategy.

Even if you take the numbers that say the smart phone market is basically a 3 way tie, 0% to 27% in 15 months is stellar and proves waiting can work.


52 posted on 02/03/2011 8:26:18 AM PST by discostu (this is definitely not my confused face)
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