Doomsday Determined? Asteroid Apophis Could Strike Earth in 2036

foxnews.com ^ | Feb. 10, 2011 | Michelle Bryner

[Free ThinkerNY]

The date for Armageddon has been set, and it's not going to happen in 2012.

In 2004, NASA scientists announced that there was a chance that Apophis, an asteroid larger than two football fields, could smash into Earth in 2029. A few additional observations and some number-crunching later, astronomers noted that the chance of the planet-killer hitting Earth in 2029 was nearly zilch.

Now Russian scientists estimate Apophis will collide with Earth on April 13, 2036. These reports conflict on the probability of such a doomsday event, but the question remains: How scared should we be?

“Technically, they’re correct, there is a chance in 2036 [that Apophis will hit Earth]," said Donald Yeomans, head of NASA’s Near-Earth Object Program Office. However, that chance is just 1-in-250,000, Yeomans said.

NASA was quick to discount Russia's fears, however. “The situation is that in 2029, April 13, [Apophis] flies very close to the Earth, within five Earth radii, so that will be quite an event, but we’ve already ruled out the possibility of it hitting at that time,” Yeomans told Life’s Little Mysteries, Space.com's sister site.

An artist's concept of a catastrophic asteroid impact with the early Earth. NASA and other space agencies are discussing how would we prevent such asteroids collisions ... and they have some far-out ideas. slideshow

Russia is considering sending a spacecraft to a large asteroid to knock it off its path and prevent a possible collision with Earth. Just how would we prevent asteroids from colliding with Earth?

"No one should worry. Between Mars and Jupiter, we have an asteroid belt. There's all the asteroids going near the sun, and these objects are coming near the earth all the time," Tim Hill, space manager at the Museum of Science and Industry in Tampa, told MyFoxTampaBay.

[hattend]

Ba’al killed Apophis in Continuum.

[wolfcreek]

We need to blast the ‘roid in ‘29.

[TheOldLady]

Well, that’s got me worried sick. I’ll only be 89.

Of course, most people in my immediate family died in their 50’s, so I’m already on borrowed time...

[ConservativeOrBust]

April 13, 2036 = Easter Sunday in the US.

[windsorknot]

lol

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks for the pings! Not going to re-ping it though, just added it to the catalog. :')

• Will Apophis Hit Earth in 2036? NASA Rejects Russian Report

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[jessduntno]

“I thought that the consensus was that they have to see what Apophis does in an upcoming close call (2013, I think). If it threads a needle in the distance between the Earth and the Moon at the time (a 600 mile ‘eye’), then it will certainly strike the Earth and hit in the Pacific in the 2030s.”

Surf’s up., Dude!

[Redcitizen]

I don’t actually smkoe but I took that line from the movie Airplane where Lloyd Bridge’s character says he picked a bad week to quit smoking. As the movie progresses he then says he picked a bad week to quit sniffing glue, drugs and a few other things.

But if an asteroid were to drop on my head, i might as well light a cigarette. =)

[eyedigress]

Be sure and smkoe it. :^)

[Redcitizen]

lol! I caught other spelling mistakes before I hit “post” but one got by me. =)

[snowsislander]

“Technically, they’re correct, there is a chance in 2036 [that Apophis will hit Earth]," said Donald Yeomans, head of NASA’s Near-Earth Object Program Office. However, that chance is just 1-in-250,000, Yeomans said.

Mr. Yeomans left out the other factor in computing an expected value for the event, which would be some sort of damage estimate.

Simply giving the likelihood of an event without a matching damage estimate is close to meaningless; attaching a damage estimate allows one to (at least roughly) compute some sort of expected value for the event which would be more meaningful. This has been common knowledge and practice since the 17th century.