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Why losers have delusions of grandeur--- The less you know, the more you think you do
NY Post ^ | May 23, 2010 | By DANIEL SIMONS and CHRISTOPHER CHABRIS

Posted on 02/19/2011 7:10:05 PM PST by dennisw

Charles Darwin observed “ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge.” That was certainly true in 1995 when a man named McArthur Wheeler boldly robbed two banks in Pittsburgh without using a disguise. Security camera footage of him was broadcast on the evening news the same day as the robberies, and he was arrested an hour later. Mr. Wheeler was surprised when the police explained how they had used the surveillance tapes to catch him. “But I wore the juice,” he mumbled incredulously. He seemed to believe that rubbing his face with lemon juice would blur his image and make him impossible to catch.

In movies, criminal masterminds often are geniuses, James Bond villains in volcano lairs. But the stereotype doesn’t apply to actual cons, at least not the ones who get caught.

Studies show those convicted of crimes are, on average, less intelligent than non-criminals.

Sixty-six-year-old Samuel Porter tried to pass a one-million-dollar bill at a supermarket in the United States and became irate when the cashier wouldn’t make change for him. All these people seem to have been under what we call the “illusion of confidence,” which is the persistent belief that we are more skilled than we really are — in this case, that the criminals were so good they would not get caught.

This tendency for the least skilled among us to overestimate their abilities the most has more serious consequences than an inflated sense of humor or chess ability. Everyone has encountered obliviously incompetent managers who make life miserable for their underlings because they suffer from the illusion of confidence. And as the joke reminds us, the people who graduate last in their medical school class are still doctors; what is less funny is that they probably believe they are still the best ones.

(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...


TOPICS: Education; Humor; Society
KEYWORDS: confidence; doubt; ignorance; losers; selfassessment; selfdoubt; selfesteem

1 posted on 02/19/2011 7:10:10 PM PST by dennisw
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To: dennisw

Entire article is worth reading


2 posted on 02/19/2011 7:10:55 PM PST by dennisw (- - - -He who does not economize will have to agonize - - - - - Confucius)
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To: dennisw

ping


3 posted on 02/19/2011 7:16:25 PM PST by dalebert
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To: dennisw

I’ve always believed that some self doubt is a good thing as long as it doesn’t discourage trying.


4 posted on 02/19/2011 7:16:53 PM PST by cripplecreek (Remember the River Raisin! (look it up))
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To: dennisw

The authors of this article seem pretty confident of themselves.


5 posted on 02/19/2011 7:19:25 PM PST by ThomasThomas (If bacon grew on trees my dog would be a vegetarian.)
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To: cripplecreek

You can’t think critically if you are unable to doubt.


6 posted on 02/19/2011 7:20:19 PM PST by yup2394871293
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To: dennisw

Dear Leader Zero thinks more government spending on mostly stupid stuff and huge gubermint teams to oversee that the stupidity is properly applied will achieve utopia. It might, but the person overseeing our utopia is likely Alinsky’s hero satan.


7 posted on 02/19/2011 7:23:55 PM PST by MtnClimber
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To: All

I’m going to try that lemon juice trick. I think maybe either he didn’t rub it all over his face or he didn’t say the magic words. Invisibility is one of my most prized assets.


8 posted on 02/19/2011 7:26:31 PM PST by BipolarBob (Even the earth is bipolar.)
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To: dennisw

A corollary of this, speaking as an ex-grade school basketball coach, are people who think their own kids or their kid’s teams were much better than anyone elses. I have a friend who not only overestimated his own athletic ability, he overestimated his son’s ability. Not that he or his son were poor athletes, in fact they were both very good. But they were simply not as good as my friend thought they were. Probably a very common and natural feeling.


9 posted on 02/19/2011 7:27:57 PM PST by driftless2 (For long-term happiness, learn how to play the accordion.)
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To: yup2394871293

I’ve never seen myself as a leader but I’ve always always landed in leadership positions like factory foreman. I guess the fact that I constantly check and recheck my work has made me successful at things like that.

On the other hand, as a foreman I was always leery of the new guys who claimed to already know how to do the job.


10 posted on 02/19/2011 7:30:23 PM PST by cripplecreek (Remember the River Raisin! (look it up))
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To: dennisw; vecchia
Everyone has encountered obliviously incompetent managers who make life miserable for their underlings because they suffer from the illusion of confidence.

Oh yes.

11 posted on 02/19/2011 7:31:30 PM PST by denydenydeny (Power always thinks it has a great soul and vast views, beyond the comprehension of the weak-Adams)
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To: dennisw
If a man will begin with certainties, he shall end in doubts; but if he will be content to begin with doubts he shall end in certainties.

-- Francis Bacon

12 posted on 02/19/2011 7:31:46 PM PST by ClearCase_guy (The world is aflame with revolution. The year 2011 will be like 1848. Be not afraid.)
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To: dennisw

Back in the mid-1980’s, Alice Lakwena, leader of the LRA rebel group in Uganda, told her followers they would be bullet-proof & invincible after rubbing their bodies with her magic oil. Thus protected they proceeded to attack Ugandan army outposts, armed mostly with sticks & stones.

Crazy, you say? Yep, but the situation was complicated by the fact that not only did the LRA rebels believe that they were protected by the magic oil, the Ugandan army had heard the story and THEY believed it also!

So, rebels with sticks & stones routed trained soldiers armed with AK-47s and more.

Crazy world!


13 posted on 02/19/2011 7:32:13 PM PST by BwanaNdege
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To: dennisw
I read the research paper mentioned in the article, "Unskilled and Unaware of It," by Kruger and Dunning and it was very good in explaining why average students think they should get better scores. It was one of those Lake Wobegon stories where all of the kids were above average. It was only after the students had improved their skills a bit and compared their new scores with the older score that they started to understand how poor they were in the first place. A simple example was that students who scored in the 12th percentile actually thought they were in the 60th percentile.

It also showed that the very best students underestimated their abilities and almost always thought that they could have done better.

14 posted on 02/19/2011 7:33:38 PM PST by VanShuyten ("a shadow...draped nobly in the folds of a gorgeous eloquence.")
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To: dennisw

I, on the other hand, am invincible.


15 posted on 02/19/2011 7:44:01 PM PST by anniegetyourgun
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To: dennisw

Skillfully bookmarked.


16 posted on 02/19/2011 7:45:33 PM PST by Inyo-Mono (Had God not driven man from the Garden of Eden the Sierra Club surely would have.)
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To: dennisw

One of the classic hallmarks of a liberal is someone who thinks that they are not only smarter than they really are, but they are thoroughly convinced that they are indisputedly smarter than you are as well.


17 posted on 02/19/2011 7:50:49 PM PST by festusbanjo (Liberals see success and ask,When is enough enough?Conservatives see taxes and ask the same question)
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To: cripplecreek

Maybe they’re right if they’re experienced at doing almost identical tasks at some other organization or have better training than even you. Oftentimes you have to set them straight, which can be difficult, certainly. New guys tend to make all other surrounding employees somewhat leery, and most new hires are a comparatively risky, initially dubious asset. But most of the time I’d argue that it’s mutually beneficial if both parties say what needs to be said out in the open without letting their emotions get the better of them and don’t assume anything. A foreman ought to know this better than anyone below him.


18 posted on 02/19/2011 7:51:47 PM PST by yup2394871293
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To: dennisw

THE MOST OBVIOUS CASE IN POINT!
19 posted on 02/19/2011 7:53:28 PM PST by Recovering_Democrat
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To: Recovering_Democrat

Either Obama is delusional to the point that he’s a danger to both himself and the rest of the country ...or he’s the king of con men. I think his problem is a mixture of both. Really good liars can believe their own lies.


20 posted on 02/19/2011 8:00:22 PM PST by yup2394871293
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To: All
I have not only read this article but I have comprehended on a level that few of you could ever understand. This article really spoke to me. I know I may have rambled some in the past, but I'm over that. I have watched the movie "The Men Who Stare At Goats" over and over repeatedly until I became a Jedi mind master. Now I see clearly that I have been underestimating myself and my abilities. There is nothing I cannot achieve once I am resolute in my efforts.
21 posted on 02/19/2011 8:03:30 PM PST by BipolarBob (Even the earth is bipolar.)
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To: BipolarBob
I can turn invisible but only if nobody is watching ..


22 posted on 02/19/2011 8:42:38 PM PST by Neidermeyer
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To: dennisw

bookmark


23 posted on 02/19/2011 8:49:08 PM PST by GOP Poet (Obama is an OLYMPIC failure.)
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To: dennisw

OK...


24 posted on 02/19/2011 8:55:05 PM PST by phockthis
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To: dennisw
Studies show those convicted of crimes are, on average, less intelligent than non-criminals.

Smart ones don't get convicted. QED.

25 posted on 02/19/2011 8:57:05 PM PST by Mike Darancette (The heresy of heresies was common sense - Orwell)
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To: Mike Darancette
Smart ones don't get convicted. QED.

********************************************

Wall Streeters don't get convicted ....


26 posted on 02/19/2011 9:04:46 PM PST by Neidermeyer
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To: BipolarBob

It ain’t lemon juice which produces invisibility, it’s “Takeela”. In my youth I was sometimes invisible for hours.


27 posted on 02/19/2011 9:05:15 PM PST by common tater (Tighten yer cinches folks, it's gonna be a rough ride.)
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To: dennisw

I supervised a guy with vast quantities of unjustifiable self-esteem. He was arrogant, untrainable, a chronic liar and a thief. He was and incompetent employee and an even worse thief.

Ten years after I fired him for theft, I saw him working behind the counter at McDonalds. No doubt, he thinks he’s the best employee McDonalds has ever had.


28 posted on 02/19/2011 9:14:29 PM PST by MediaMole
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To: BwanaNdege

The “bullet-proof” magic is actually pretty common. The Ghost Dancer Indians in 1890s America and the Boxers in China around the same time believed the same thing, among others around the world.

It always turned out the evil white man’s bullets hadn’t got the news.


29 posted on 02/19/2011 9:40:07 PM PST by Sherman Logan
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To: BipolarBob

“I’m going to try that lemon juice trick. I think maybe either he didn’t rub it all over his face or he didn’t say the magic words. Invisibility is one of my most prized assets.”

Don’t forget that the lemon juice might not have been entirely fresh, either. Or he might have used lemons that were on the verge of spoiling, or maybe they weren’t ripe enough. I suspect this lemon juice thing might be a tad trickier than it appears on its face.


30 posted on 02/19/2011 10:34:13 PM PST by catnipman (Cat Nipman: Made from the right stuff!)
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To: dennisw

Level 1 – Unconscious Incompetence
(You Don’t Know that You Don’t Know)

Level 2 – Conscious Incompetence
(You Know that You Don’t Know)

Level 3 – Conscious Competence
(You Know that You Know)

Level 4 – Unconscious Competence
(You Don’t Know that You Know – It Just Seems Easy!)


31 posted on 02/20/2011 5:31:33 AM PST by MV=PY
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To: VanShuyten

Interesting. Sounds like it merits a read.


32 posted on 02/20/2011 2:57:43 PM PST by FourPeas
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To: Recovering_Democrat

B I N G O !!!!!!


33 posted on 02/21/2011 1:12:57 PM PST by SMARTY (Conforming to non-conformity is conforming just the same.)
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To: dennisw
These findings help to explain why shows like “American Idol” and “Last Comic Standing” attract so many aspiring contestants who have no hope of qualifying, let alone winning. Many are just seeking a few seconds of TV time and a shot at “Pants on the Ground” fame, but some seem genuinely shocked when the judges reject them.

One reason I loved Simon so much was that he was absolutely honest with those contestants. Maybe part of the problem is that people of marginal abilities are praised, rather than being instructed on how to self-assess and thus determine how to do things better. (Although with singing, if a person can't carry a tune, no amount of coaching is going to help.)

34 posted on 02/22/2011 5:20:50 AM PST by exDemMom (Now that I've finally accepted that I'm living a bad hair life, I'm more at peace with the world.)
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To: dennisw

This is the problem that coaches have all the time.

Overconfidence. The belief that you can’t be beaten or replaced.


35 posted on 02/22/2011 5:38:12 AM PST by dforest
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To: driftless2

In competitive athletics, unlike academia, one eventually discovers his true abilities, or lack thereof.


36 posted on 02/22/2011 5:42:36 AM PST by CharacterCounts (November 4, 2008 - the day America drank the Kool-Aid)
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To: CharacterCounts

I was constantly fighting the urge to tell my close friend that his kid just wasn’t that good (he thought his kid was a superstar who was being shafted by the coach.) Eventually his kid quit the basketball team because he wasn’t starting. His dad, my friend, had urged him to quit. The ironic thing is, due to injuries from other players, his kid would have ended up starting. So my friend shafted his own child.


37 posted on 02/22/2011 7:14:04 AM PST by driftless2 (For long-term happiness, learn how to play the accordion.)
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