Skip to comments.California Unlikely to see a quake like Japan's
Posted on 03/13/2011 2:57:49 PM PDT by americanophile
Earthquakes the size of the one that struck Japan on Friday are highly unlikely ever to hit the California coast, but smaller quakes along the San Andreas or Hayward faults could prove just as devastating, experts say.
No temblor greater than a magnitude 8 is ever likely in California, say scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey in Menlo Park.
"But the next big quake in the Bay Area on either the San Andreas or the Hayward will be a $200 billion disaster," warned Thomas M. Brocher, who leads the USGS region's efforts at preparedness for the next Big One.
The San Andreas, which runs for some 810 miles from Cape Mendocino to the Salton Sea, is the state's most dangerous fault because the magnitude of any earthquake is primarily dependent on the length of a fault's rupture zone, explained Ross Stein, a geophysicist at the USGS.
But the north and south segments of the fault are separated by a central stretch of about 100 miles between Hollister and Parkfield in Monterey County, and it is that section that should prevent any earthquake as powerful as the one that struck Japan on Friday. In the Hollister-Parkfield segment, the brittle rock of the Earth's upper crust "is lubricated like talcum powder," Stein said. The result, he said, is a steady creeping motion that acts to relieve the constant buildup of stress within the fault that otherwise could trigger a major temblor along the entire length of the fault.
(Excerpt) Read more at sfgate.com ...
Caltech team mulls worst-case scenario after next big earthquake
October 11, 2008
CAJON PASS A magnitude-7.8 quake rips out of the Coachella Valley, heads west along the San Andreas Fault, severs power lines, cuts a hole in the 15 Freeway and knocks out rail tracks leaving Southern California isolated from the rest of the West Coast.
Here’s another one - also look up liquefaction maps.
Bottom line is it doesn’t have to be a 9.0
it could be worse...
California on edge after Earthquake activity in the Gulf of California The Weather Space ^ | March 12, 2011 | Jim Duran Posted on March 13, 2011 3:13:15 PM PDT by americanophile
Earthquakes are striking the middle of the Gulf of California, giving U.S. West Coast residents the question ... when?
TheWeatherSpace.com has received many reports and concerns about an Earthquake striking California because of what is happening down in the Gulf of Cailfornia. Six quakes, including a 5.3-magnitude moderate quake have struck the area today. The lingering concern of viewers is the wonder if California is next due to the fact Japan start this same way.
"While I cannot speak for USGS or any type of geology official, California needs to have their earthquake preparations in order, including kits", said TWS Meteorologist Kevin Martin. "Weather and Problem Solving is my field, however if you live in California you must always be prepared no matter what. Now is a good time to do so. Quakes down there have a tendency to cause stress on California fault-zones so I wouldn't be surprised if we get one. Usually the main quake happens where the foreshocks are so it would have to be the Gulf of California as well".
Other concerns is the Japan area. Viewers are pouring in wondering if the aftershocks are foreshocks to an even larger one. Was the current mainshock the larger one?
The USGS says that the mainshock would be the largest one. It is anyone's guess if a larger one is on the horizon. Talks of super moon on the 19th has the Internet a buzz right now.
Martin lastly states that a 4.4-magnitude quake hit several hours before the 5.3-magnitude quake farther north, this one 170 miles southwest of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. What interests him is quakes seem to go along the plate boundary and California sits north of the mainshock pattern.
map here: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsus/Maps/US10/22.32.-115.-105.php
Yes, but it’s a different kind of fault zone - strike-slip, which means it’s a transform plate boundary, where the plates grind past each other, not a a convergent plate boundary, where they smash into one another. Those seems to produce the most devastating earthquakes. The real story is up in the Puget Sound area where a very small plate is subducting under the North American one...it’s only a matter of time before they get one like Japan.
Bad enough, right.
I have a map that’s suppose to show all earthquakes - and your area only shows two...
I live in the Seattle area and am aware that we are past due for the “big one”. Washington’s coast is also a prime target for tsunami.
Yes. A swarm in the same spot.
A week ago there was a swarm in one spot 250 miles off the Oregon coast. I was thinking that meant something. Then Japan got hit.
Says...File not found.
Conventional scientific theory has the San Andreas fault generating a maximum of 8.0. There are scientists that think it can create larger ones.
The Cascadia Subduction zone fault off the coast of Oregon and Washington is capable of generating an earthquake and tsunami as large as the one in Japan according to scientists
My list is here:
OK. Try a search for “Latest Earthquakes in the USA”
That should bring you some choices.
Better yet, try HTML://www.earthquake.usgs.gov
Me: “Mister Scientist, I have one question!”
MS: “Go ahead”
Me: “Where is the next big quake going to occur in California?”
MS: “I don’t know for sure”
Me: “Then how can you say that nothing bigger than 8.0 will ever occur in California?”
MS: Blank stare...
$200 billion, eh? That’s Zero’s monthly deficit for February.