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California Unlikely to see a quake like Japan's
San Francisco Chronicle ^ | 3/11/11 | David Perlman

Posted on 03/13/2011 2:57:49 PM PDT by americanophile

Earthquakes the size of the one that struck Japan on Friday are highly unlikely ever to hit the California coast, but smaller quakes along the San Andreas or Hayward faults could prove just as devastating, experts say.

No temblor greater than a magnitude 8 is ever likely in California, say scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey in Menlo Park.

"But the next big quake in the Bay Area on either the San Andreas or the Hayward will be a $200 billion disaster," warned Thomas M. Brocher, who leads the USGS region's efforts at preparedness for the next Big One.

The San Andreas, which runs for some 810 miles from Cape Mendocino to the Salton Sea, is the state's most dangerous fault because the magnitude of any earthquake is primarily dependent on the length of a fault's rupture zone, explained Ross Stein, a geophysicist at the USGS.

But the north and south segments of the fault are separated by a central stretch of about 100 miles between Hollister and Parkfield in Monterey County, and it is that section that should prevent any earthquake as powerful as the one that struck Japan on Friday. In the Hollister-Parkfield segment, the brittle rock of the Earth's upper crust "is lubricated like talcum powder," Stein said. The result, he said, is a steady creeping motion that acts to relieve the constant buildup of stress within the fault that otherwise could trigger a major temblor along the entire length of the fault.

(Excerpt) Read more at sfgate.com ...


TOPICS: Miscellaneous; Science
KEYWORDS: california; earthquake; sanandreas
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To: Conservative4Ever

You lived through some bad ones... Florida with our hurricanes is starting to look good - well, until the season starts again... Glad you’re still with us, Conservative3Ever.


51 posted on 03/13/2011 6:19:29 PM PDT by GOPJ (http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/index2.php - It's only uncivil when someone on the right does it.- Laz)
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To: GOPJ

This is awesome! Thank you so much...


52 posted on 03/13/2011 6:40:19 PM PDT by SumProVita (Cogito, ergo...Sum Pro Vita. (Modified Decartes))
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To: SumProVita

I thought you’d like it.


53 posted on 03/13/2011 6:52:44 PM PDT by GOPJ (http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/index2.php - It's only uncivil when someone on the right does it.- Laz)
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To: americanophile
"But the next big quake in the Bay Area on either the San Andreas or the Hayward will be a $200 billion disaster," warned Thomas M. Brocher, who leads the USGS region's efforts at preparedness for the next Big One.

I used to think of "the big one" in California as a disaster beyond imagining in all respects. Thanks to Obama/Pelosi/Reid, I now see the dollar cost as a small fraction of Stimulus, TARP, ObamaCare, or any of a number of other man induced disasters, if the $200B number is anywhere near the real cost of the big one. The loss of life could be horrendous, but the financial impact would be minor compared with a true American catastrophe:


54 posted on 03/13/2011 7:09:31 PM PDT by Pollster1 (Natural born citizen of the USA, with the birth certificate to prove it)
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To: goat granny

For sure about Yellowstone.


55 posted on 03/13/2011 9:54:00 PM PDT by americanophile ("this absurd theology of an immoral Bedouin, is a rotting corpse which poisons our lives"-Ataturk)
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To: LibertarianLiz

...oh, haha. Ya, I’m not telling you anything you don’t already know.


56 posted on 03/13/2011 10:00:16 PM PDT by americanophile ("this absurd theology of an immoral Bedouin, is a rotting corpse which poisons our lives"-Ataturk)
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