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California Unlikely to see a quake like Japan's
San Francisco Chronicle ^ | 3/11/11 | David Perlman

Posted on 03/13/2011 2:57:49 PM PDT by americanophile

Earthquakes the size of the one that struck Japan on Friday are highly unlikely ever to hit the California coast, but smaller quakes along the San Andreas or Hayward faults could prove just as devastating, experts say.

No temblor greater than a magnitude 8 is ever likely in California, say scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey in Menlo Park.

"But the next big quake in the Bay Area on either the San Andreas or the Hayward will be a $200 billion disaster," warned Thomas M. Brocher, who leads the USGS region's efforts at preparedness for the next Big One.

The San Andreas, which runs for some 810 miles from Cape Mendocino to the Salton Sea, is the state's most dangerous fault because the magnitude of any earthquake is primarily dependent on the length of a fault's rupture zone, explained Ross Stein, a geophysicist at the USGS.

But the north and south segments of the fault are separated by a central stretch of about 100 miles between Hollister and Parkfield in Monterey County, and it is that section that should prevent any earthquake as powerful as the one that struck Japan on Friday. In the Hollister-Parkfield segment, the brittle rock of the Earth's upper crust "is lubricated like talcum powder," Stein said. The result, he said, is a steady creeping motion that acts to relieve the constant buildup of stress within the fault that otherwise could trigger a major temblor along the entire length of the fault.

(Excerpt) Read more at sfgate.com ...


TOPICS: Miscellaneous; Science
KEYWORDS: california; earthquake; sanandreas
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1 posted on 03/13/2011 2:57:51 PM PDT by americanophile
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To: americanophile

What, me worry?

2 posted on 03/13/2011 3:02:50 PM PDT by Fido969 ("The hardest thing in the world to understand is income tax." - Albert Einstein)
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To: americanophile

Never say never, we’ve had two over 8.5 earth quakes in the past few years, one in Indonesia and now one in Japan. There is no reason why California won’t have a big one over 8 as well.


3 posted on 03/13/2011 3:02:50 PM PDT by trapped_in_LA
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To: americanophile
Earthquakes the size of the one that struck Japan on Friday are highly unlikely ever to hit the California coast,...

...until one does.

4 posted on 03/13/2011 3:04:38 PM PDT by Roccus (POLITICIAN...............a four letter word spelled with ten letters.)
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To: trapped_in_LA

There point I guess is that this ins’t a subduction zone, but yes, famous last words...


5 posted on 03/13/2011 3:04:48 PM PDT by americanophile ("this absurd theology of an immoral Bedouin, is a rotting corpse which poisons our lives"-Ataturk)
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To: americanophile; All

About the time you say “it will never happen here” is just about the time it will happen. It is best to plan for the worst case scenieros, but hope for the best to happen.


6 posted on 03/13/2011 3:05:26 PM PDT by TMSuchman (John 15;13 & Exodus 21:22-25)
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To: americanophile
An asteroid could cause a tsunami too.
7 posted on 03/13/2011 3:05:29 PM PDT by Berlin_Freeper
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To: americanophile

There are unusual swarms of earthquakes taking place around the world....including a recent one in Poland for the first time in umteen years.

This took place today:

3.8 2011/03/13 15:16:21 32.954N 100.810W 5.0 34 km (21 mi) WNW of Rotan, TX

The area of New Madrid continues to show increased activity.


8 posted on 03/13/2011 3:06:22 PM PDT by SumProVita (Cogito, ergo...Sum Pro Vita. (Modified Decartes))
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To: americanophile
No temblor greater than a magnitude 8 is ever likely in California, say scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey
Oh yeah, trust your life to the people who wear gov't IDs.

9 posted on 03/13/2011 3:07:37 PM PDT by oh8eleven (RVN '67-'68)
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To: americanophile

Now that it has been said that it will never happen, it is going to happen.

Like someone said, never say never again.


10 posted on 03/13/2011 3:10:02 PM PDT by archivist007
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To: americanophile

Could be Oregon next. We can’t predict the future..


11 posted on 03/13/2011 3:10:27 PM PDT by goseminoles
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To: SumProVita

Just spotted a fresh 3.8 in West Texas. Look at the line the mapped quakes makes connecting through the New Madrid area.


12 posted on 03/13/2011 3:11:14 PM PDT by Cold Heart
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To: Armaggedon; Jeremiah Jr
No temblor greater than a magnitude 8 is ever likely in California, say scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey in Menlo Park.

Wisdom of science ping.

13 posted on 03/13/2011 3:13:46 PM PDT by Ezekiel (The Obama-nation began with the Inauguration of Desolation.)
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To: americanophile

And what about the New Madrid?


14 posted on 03/13/2011 3:13:46 PM PDT by GOPJ (http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/index2.php - It's only uncivil when someone on the right does it.- Laz)
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To: GOPJ
...that one is particularly disconcerting.
15 posted on 03/13/2011 3:16:53 PM PDT by americanophile ("this absurd theology of an immoral Bedouin, is a rotting corpse which poisons our lives"-Ataturk)
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To: americanophile
"They couldn't hit an elephant at this distance!"

(Col. John Sedgwick, before being shot and killed by a Confederate sniper at the battle of Spotsylvania in 1864.)

16 posted on 03/13/2011 3:22:34 PM PDT by rlmorel (How to relate to Liberals? Take a Conservative, remove all responsibility...logic...)
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To: Cold Heart

Yes, that’s the quake I posted as taking place today. Here are the smaller ones from today in my area:

2.3 2011/03/13 10:57:55 35.259N 92.358W 3.9 4 km ( 2mi) NE of Greenbrier, AR
2.4 2011/03/13 10:36:53 35.261N 92.352W 4.1 4 km ( 3 mi) NE of Greenbrier, AR
2.5 2011/03/13 04:11:41 35.295N 92.308W 5.1 4 km ( 3 mi) SE of Guy, AR
2.4 2011/03/13 01:24:23 35.303N 92.311W 4.7 3 km ( 2 mi) SE of Guy, AR

There were 6 similar ones yesterday.


17 posted on 03/13/2011 3:27:10 PM PDT by SumProVita (Cogito, ergo...Sum Pro Vita. (Modified Decartes))
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To: Fido969

It wasn’t the quake but the tsunami that did so much damage to life and limb.

Northridge was pretty damaging, IIRC.


18 posted on 03/13/2011 3:31:46 PM PDT by Carley (WISCONSIN STREET NO DIFFERENT THAN THE ARAB STREET. UGLY AND VIOLENT)
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To: Cold Heart

Which map are you viewing to see that connecting line?


19 posted on 03/13/2011 3:32:35 PM PDT by SumProVita (Cogito, ergo...Sum Pro Vita. (Modified Decartes))
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To: Cold Heart

Hasn’t Arkansas had swarms of small earthquakes this past month?


20 posted on 03/13/2011 3:32:47 PM PDT by Carley (WISCONSIN STREET NO DIFFERENT THAN THE ARAB STREET. UGLY AND VIOLENT)
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To: oh8eleven
just like every months unemployment numbers, I would expect a lot of “unexpected” to be in any articles written after the next California quake.
21 posted on 03/13/2011 3:34:38 PM PDT by TexasFreeper2009 (Obama = Carter 2.0 The Epic Fail Edition)
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To: americanophile

Caltech team mulls worst-case scenario after next big earthquake

October 11, 2008

CAJON PASS – A magnitude-7.8 quake rips out of the Coachella Valley, heads west along the San Andreas Fault, severs power lines, cuts a hole in the 15 Freeway and knocks out rail tracks – leaving Southern California isolated from the rest of the West Coast.

http://westcoast911.com/wp/2008/10/11/caltech-team-mulls-worst-case-scenario-after-next-big-earthquake/


Here’s another one - also look up liquefaction maps.

http://sciencedude.ocregister.com/2008/01/14/san-andreas-quake-could-shake-oc-for-60-seconds/2205/

Bottom line is it doesn’t have to be a 9.0


22 posted on 03/13/2011 3:36:04 PM PDT by WestCoastGal (SL I believe hes a remarkable race-car driver, I think some people in the world have forgotten that)
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To: americanophile

it could be worse...


23 posted on 03/13/2011 3:38:45 PM PDT by bigbob
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To: americanophile
I'm sorry, but doesn't the "Ring of Fire" run down the West Coast of the United States; which I believe includes CA. And wasn't this gigantor quake which just hit Japan a product of that same "Ring of Fire"? Wouldn't that mean that CA is vulnerable to that same size quake? Just asking.
24 posted on 03/13/2011 3:41:39 PM PDT by LibertarianLiz
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To: americanophile

Right.


25 posted on 03/13/2011 3:45:18 PM PDT by trisham (Zen is not easy. It takes effort to attain nothingness. And then what do you have? Bupkis.)
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To: bigbob
Yeh...this posted above:

California on edge after Earthquake activity in the Gulf of California The Weather Space ^ | March 12, 2011 | Jim Duran Posted on March 13, 2011 3:13:15 PM PDT by americanophile

Earthquakes are striking the middle of the Gulf of California, giving U.S. West Coast residents the question ... when?

TheWeatherSpace.com has received many reports and concerns about an Earthquake striking California because of what is happening down in the Gulf of Cailfornia. Six quakes, including a 5.3-magnitude moderate quake have struck the area today. The lingering concern of viewers is the wonder if California is next due to the fact Japan start this same way.

"While I cannot speak for USGS or any type of geology official, California needs to have their earthquake preparations in order, including kits", said TWS Meteorologist Kevin Martin. "Weather and Problem Solving is my field, however if you live in California you must always be prepared no matter what. Now is a good time to do so. Quakes down there have a tendency to cause stress on California fault-zones so I wouldn't be surprised if we get one. Usually the main quake happens where the foreshocks are so it would have to be the Gulf of California as well".

Other concerns is the Japan area. Viewers are pouring in wondering if the aftershocks are foreshocks to an even larger one. Was the current mainshock the larger one?

The USGS says that the mainshock would be the largest one. It is anyone's guess if a larger one is on the horizon. Talks of super moon on the 19th has the Internet a buzz right now.

Martin lastly states that a 4.4-magnitude quake hit several hours before the 5.3-magnitude quake farther north, this one 170 miles southwest of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. What interests him is quakes seem to go along the plate boundary and California sits north of the mainshock pattern.

map here: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsus/Maps/US10/22.32.-115.-105.php

26 posted on 03/13/2011 3:47:24 PM PDT by spokeshave (WTF....the only thing 0bambi's investments will get us is a bullet train to bankruptcy.)
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To: LibertarianLiz

Yes, but it’s a different kind of fault zone - strike-slip, which means it’s a transform plate boundary, where the plates grind past each other, not a a convergent plate boundary, where they smash into one another. Those seems to produce the most devastating earthquakes. The real story is up in the Puget Sound area where a very small plate is subducting under the North American one...it’s only a matter of time before they get one like Japan.


27 posted on 03/13/2011 3:50:29 PM PDT by americanophile ("this absurd theology of an immoral Bedouin, is a rotting corpse which poisons our lives"-Ataturk)
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To: WestCoastGal

Bad enough, right.


28 posted on 03/13/2011 3:52:53 PM PDT by americanophile ("this absurd theology of an immoral Bedouin, is a rotting corpse which poisons our lives"-Ataturk)
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To: SumProVita

I have a map that’s suppose to show all earthquakes - and your area only shows two...


29 posted on 03/13/2011 3:52:53 PM PDT by GOPJ (http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/index2.php - It's only uncivil when someone on the right does it.- Laz)
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To: SumProVita

earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/rencentequs/


30 posted on 03/13/2011 3:54:17 PM PDT by Cold Heart
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To: americanophile

I live in the Seattle area and am aware that we are past due for the “big one”. Washington’s coast is also a prime target for tsunami.


31 posted on 03/13/2011 3:56:41 PM PDT by LibertarianLiz
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To: Carley

Yes. A swarm in the same spot.

A week ago there was a swarm in one spot 250 miles off the Oregon coast. I was thinking that meant something. Then Japan got hit.


32 posted on 03/13/2011 3:59:18 PM PDT by Cold Heart
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To: Cold Heart

Says...File not found.


33 posted on 03/13/2011 4:00:50 PM PDT by SumProVita (Cogito, ergo...Sum Pro Vita. (Modified Decartes))
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To: LibertarianLiz
Wouldn't that mean that CA is vulnerable to that same size quake? Just asking

Conventional scientific theory has the San Andreas fault generating a maximum of 8.0. There are scientists that think it can create larger ones.

The Cascadia Subduction zone fault off the coast of Oregon and Washington is capable of generating an earthquake and tsunami as large as the one in Japan according to scientists

34 posted on 03/13/2011 4:01:04 PM PDT by EVO X
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To: GOPJ

My list is here:

http://folkworm.ceri.memphis.edu/recenteqs/Quakes/quakes0.html


35 posted on 03/13/2011 4:02:01 PM PDT by SumProVita (Cogito, ergo...Sum Pro Vita. (Modified Decartes))
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To: SumProVita

OK. Try a search for “Latest Earthquakes in the USA”
That should bring you some choices.


36 posted on 03/13/2011 4:05:20 PM PDT by Cold Heart
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To: SumProVita

Better yet, try HTML://www.earthquake.usgs.gov


37 posted on 03/13/2011 4:09:16 PM PDT by Cold Heart
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To: americanophile

Me: “Mister Scientist, I have one question!”

MS: “Go ahead”

Me: “Where is the next big quake going to occur in California?”

MS: “I don’t know for sure”

Me: “Then how can you say that nothing bigger than 8.0 will ever occur in California?”

MS: Blank stare...


38 posted on 03/13/2011 4:13:54 PM PDT by hattend (Obama got his 3am call about Egypt. The call went right to the answering machine.- Sarah Palin)
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To: americanophile

$200 billion, eh? That’s Zero’s monthly deficit for February.


39 posted on 03/13/2011 4:18:00 PM PDT by beethovenfan (If Islam is the solution, the "problem" must be freedom.)
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To: Cold Heart

Thanks...

;-)


40 posted on 03/13/2011 4:19:07 PM PDT by SumProVita (Cogito, ergo...Sum Pro Vita. (Modified Decartes))
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To: SumProVita

Downloaded EQuake3D and the Texas 3.8 is there, but for some reason this program isn’t showing anything in Europe. What do I need ?


41 posted on 03/13/2011 4:27:54 PM PDT by Paisan
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To: Paisan

USGS doesn’t show Europe. Try here: http://www.emsc-csem.org/#2


42 posted on 03/13/2011 4:32:34 PM PDT by SumProVita (Cogito, ergo...Sum Pro Vita. (Modified Decartes))
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To: americanophile
No temblor greater than a magnitude 8 is ever likely in California, say scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey in Menlo Park.

Menlo Park is in SF- this is wishful and dangerous thinking. But what do journalists care? Let's feel good and pretend California as special powers protecting it. The 1906 quake is estimated as an 8 btw.
43 posted on 03/13/2011 4:34:45 PM PDT by Vision ("Did I not say to you that if you would believe, you would see the glory of God?" John 11:40)
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To: americanophile
Yeah, I'll trust the seismic advice of the paper whose political advice included endorsing Gavin Newsom.


44 posted on 03/13/2011 4:43:07 PM PDT by Dr. Sheldon Cooper (I'm not insane, my mother had me tested!)
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To: GOPJ

Yeah...lots of little quakes in the Greenbrier, AL area since the 8th. Ummmmmmm. I live in SoCal and I lived through the landers/big bear quake and northridge.


45 posted on 03/13/2011 5:32:13 PM PDT by Conservative4Ever (Man the pitchforks and torches.......let the revolution begin)
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To: GOPJ

Yeah...lots of little quakes in the Greenbrier, AL area since the 8th. Ummmmmmm. I live in SoCal and I lived through the landers/big bear quake and northridge.


46 posted on 03/13/2011 5:32:31 PM PDT by Conservative4Ever (Man the pitchforks and torches.......let the revolution begin)
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To: Conservative4Ever
God created the world....including our little planet...

......If Japan wasn't a wake-up call, I don't know what is.

Get your hearts ready with God, folks!

....destruction only takes a few minutes...then it's over....and too late!

I even heard Frank Luntz on Cavuto last night say....'but by the Grace of God there go I'--(or our nation)....in referring to the tragedy of the Japan quake.

Cavuto said....'those are profound words'.....

I grew up hearing & understanding those words......and believe them even more fully now.

47 posted on 03/13/2011 5:55:47 PM PDT by Guenevere (....)
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To: Conservative4Ever

I was 8 miles from the Landers, but it was ONLY a 7.4!


48 posted on 03/13/2011 6:03:01 PM PDT by opbuzz (Right way, wrong way, Marine way)
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To: SumProVita
Thanks - interesting collection of earthquakes ... right where you said they were... Here's the link to the earthquake program I'm using - it's free - a three dimensional earth with (almost) all the information... and it's beautiful.

http://www.wolton.net/quake.html

49 posted on 03/13/2011 6:14:09 PM PDT by GOPJ (http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/index2.php - It's only uncivil when someone on the right does it.- Laz)
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To: americanophile
If the volcano in Yellowstone ever goes off, we can put our head between our legs and kiss our butts goodby...

So called experts than say a earthquake like Japan cannot happen in California should be told to shut their mouths. No one can predict the size or place of such events, they just think they can...The earth doesn't read the papers..

50 posted on 03/13/2011 6:16:43 PM PDT by goat granny
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