Skip to comments.California Unlikely to see a quake like Japan's
Posted on 03/13/2011 2:57:49 PM PDT by americanophile
Earthquakes the size of the one that struck Japan on Friday are highly unlikely ever to hit the California coast, but smaller quakes along the San Andreas or Hayward faults could prove just as devastating, experts say.
No temblor greater than a magnitude 8 is ever likely in California, say scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey in Menlo Park.
"But the next big quake in the Bay Area on either the San Andreas or the Hayward will be a $200 billion disaster," warned Thomas M. Brocher, who leads the USGS region's efforts at preparedness for the next Big One.
The San Andreas, which runs for some 810 miles from Cape Mendocino to the Salton Sea, is the state's most dangerous fault because the magnitude of any earthquake is primarily dependent on the length of a fault's rupture zone, explained Ross Stein, a geophysicist at the USGS.
But the north and south segments of the fault are separated by a central stretch of about 100 miles between Hollister and Parkfield in Monterey County, and it is that section that should prevent any earthquake as powerful as the one that struck Japan on Friday. In the Hollister-Parkfield segment, the brittle rock of the Earth's upper crust "is lubricated like talcum powder," Stein said. The result, he said, is a steady creeping motion that acts to relieve the constant buildup of stress within the fault that otherwise could trigger a major temblor along the entire length of the fault.
(Excerpt) Read more at sfgate.com ...
What, me worry?
Never say never, we’ve had two over 8.5 earth quakes in the past few years, one in Indonesia and now one in Japan. There is no reason why California won’t have a big one over 8 as well.
...until one does.
There point I guess is that this ins’t a subduction zone, but yes, famous last words...
About the time you say “it will never happen here” is just about the time it will happen. It is best to plan for the worst case scenieros, but hope for the best to happen.
There are unusual swarms of earthquakes taking place around the world....including a recent one in Poland for the first time in umteen years.
This took place today:
3.8 2011/03/13 15:16:21 32.954N 100.810W 5.0 34 km (21 mi) WNW of Rotan, TX
The area of New Madrid continues to show increased activity.
Now that it has been said that it will never happen, it is going to happen.
Like someone said, never say never again.
Could be Oregon next. We can’t predict the future..
Just spotted a fresh 3.8 in West Texas. Look at the line the mapped quakes makes connecting through the New Madrid area.
Wisdom of science ping.
And what about the New Madrid?
(Col. John Sedgwick, before being shot and killed by a Confederate sniper at the battle of Spotsylvania in 1864.)
Yes, that’s the quake I posted as taking place today. Here are the smaller ones from today in my area:
2.3 2011/03/13 10:57:55 35.259N 92.358W 3.9 4 km ( 2mi) NE of Greenbrier, AR
2.4 2011/03/13 10:36:53 35.261N 92.352W 4.1 4 km ( 3 mi) NE of Greenbrier, AR
2.5 2011/03/13 04:11:41 35.295N 92.308W 5.1 4 km ( 3 mi) SE of Guy, AR
2.4 2011/03/13 01:24:23 35.303N 92.311W 4.7 3 km ( 2 mi) SE of Guy, AR
There were 6 similar ones yesterday.
It wasn’t the quake but the tsunami that did so much damage to life and limb.
Northridge was pretty damaging, IIRC.
Which map are you viewing to see that connecting line?
Hasn’t Arkansas had swarms of small earthquakes this past month?
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