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IDC Moble Phone Tracker Report: Windows Phones to Overtake iPhone iOS by 2015
PC World ^ | 06/11/2011 | By Keir Thomas

Posted on 06/12/2011 9:45:17 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

The Windows operating system for smartphones is expected to gain market share in the next few years thanks to Nokia, eventually leapfrogging the iOS system used on Apple's iPhone. But Google Android will remain atop the field.

That's according to International Data Corporation's latest Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker report.

IDC predicts Android will have 43.8 percent of the market in 2015, followed by Windows Phone at 20.3 percent. Apple's iOS will trail at 16.9 percent. The future projections would be a significant improvement for Windows Phone, which will account for just 3.8 percent of the market by the end of this year, according to IDC's figures.

At the end of this year, Android is projected to have the most market share at 38.9 percent, IDC says, followed by Nokia's Symbian at 20.6 percent, and then iOS at 18.2 percent. However, Nokia has declared Symbian dead and its current market position relates largely to Nokia's traditionally dominant position in global markets, particularly those outside the U.S. IDC noted in its Thursday report that Nokia has committed to support Symbian devices until 2016.

Last year, Nokia declared an audacious switch to Windows Phone for its mobile devices. This is what fuels IDC's predictions, although IDC hopes Nokia's take-up of Microsoft's mobile OS will be trouble-free. Bearing in mind Nokia is far from healthy these days, with sales forecast updates putting its stock price into free-fall, this is far from assured. The Mango update of Windows Phone 7, due at the end of this year, is also fuelling IDC's predictions.

(Excerpt) Read more at pcworld.com ...


TOPICS: Computers/Internet; Society
KEYWORDS: apple; riiiiiiiiiiiight; windowsphone7

1 posted on 06/12/2011 9:45:24 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

NOTE THE CAVEAT:

IDC’s estimates hinge on Nokia transitioning smoothly to Windows Phone, something a few analysts perceive as easier said than done. Once the news emerged that Nokia planned on abandoning its Symbian platform, sales of Symbian devices began a precipitous drop—and Nokia’s Windows Phone devices aren’t expected to hit the market before the end of 2011.

Whether or not the Nokia transition ultimately succeeds, Microsoft is moving forward with its plans to buttress Windows Phone’s capabilities. During a May 24 press event in New York City, Microsoft executives demonstrated some of the top-line features of the upcoming “Mango” update, including multitasking, a redesigned Xbox Live Hub, visual voicemail, the ability to consolidate friends and colleagues into groups within the platform’s “People” Hub, and Local Scout, which offers a view of everything to see and do in a particular neighborhood. The “People” Hub will also include data from Twitter and LinkedIn, as well as the ability to share and tag photos.

For enterprise users, Mango will offer the ability to search a server for email items no longer stored on the device, and share and save Office documents via Office 365 and Windows SkyDrive. There’s also an upgraded Internet experience, one that tightly bakes Microsoft’s Bing search engine into the interface.

But if IDC is to be believed, it’ll be Nokia—and not all those nifty features—that eventually make Windows Phone a true smartphone force.


2 posted on 06/12/2011 9:48:07 AM PDT by SeekAndFind (u)
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To: SeekAndFind

Really? From a PC point of view, Mac OS system sales grew 25% while overall PC sales grew 2%. Can you say a loss of market share? I can’t imagine this going direction in the handheld market.


3 posted on 06/12/2011 9:58:21 AM PDT by GWB00 (Barbara Streisand barely made it out of high school.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Really? From a PC point of view, Mac OS system sales grew 25% while overall PC sales grew 2%. Can you say a loss of market share? I can’t imagine this going direction in the handheld market.


4 posted on 06/12/2011 9:58:26 AM PDT by GWB00 (Barbara Streisand barely made it out of high school.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Yes, but are those additional WinPhone features safe for Congressmen to use?


5 posted on 06/12/2011 10:10:52 AM PDT by bajabaja (Too ugly to be scanned at the airports.)
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To: SeekAndFind

I’m an “early adopter,” and I have always had to change once the final platform comes on line, usually because somebody with a bigger base got the idea and made it more commercially viable - or it was dropped altogether for lack of support, such as the early Windows Reader versions way back in the 90’s. In this case, we don’t know what it will be.

But that’s life. It’s only a couple of hundred dollars for the phone (or free, if you can get a deal), so by the time the new technology takes over, it would be time to change anyway.

In the cyberworld, nothing is forever...or even for much longer than a year or two.


6 posted on 06/12/2011 10:11:28 AM PDT by livius
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To: bajabaja

You mean...they’ll be rendered sterile?


7 posted on 06/12/2011 10:12:06 AM PDT by livius
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To: GWB00

The decline of iOS in the mobile market is consistent with other reports.


8 posted on 06/12/2011 10:12:23 AM PDT by driftdiver (I could eat it raw, but why do that when I have a fire.)
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To: SeekAndFind

I do so love a good healthy competition. All those techs and software writers striving to provide me the maximum bang for my tech dollar.


9 posted on 06/12/2011 10:15:03 AM PDT by SES1066 (Michael Moore - a pernicious progluddite of socialism!)
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To: SeekAndFind

Right - and the Polish Cavalry were confident in their ability to repel the Nazi Blitzkrieg in 1939. Windows had its day but that day is no more. It’s a new world out there.


10 posted on 06/12/2011 10:15:53 AM PDT by 2 Kool 2 Be 4-Gotten (Welcome to the USA - where every day is Backwards Day!)
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To: driftdiver

Don’t you mean “is consistent with the wishful thinking of other reporters”?? not to mention wishful thinking of a small cadre of rabid, vapid, Bill Gates/Steve Balmer worshiping fanblois on FR?


11 posted on 06/12/2011 10:17:30 AM PDT by Keith in Iowa (FR Class of 1998 | TV News is an oxymoron. | MSNBC = Moonbats Spouting Nothing But Crap.)
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To: GWB00

Interesting how PC based phone always will overtake Apple.
Notice the keyword in all these articles is “Overtake”.
They NEVER develop products ahead of Apple. They simply follow
Apples lead.


12 posted on 06/12/2011 10:22:36 AM PDT by tennmountainman
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To: 2 Kool 2 Be 4-Gotten

RE: Windows had its day but that day is no more. It’s a new world out there.

I am not a worshipper or fan of any company. I invest based on what I see on the market.

I have a love/hate relationship with Microsoft and always have. I’d alternately praise and curse them based on how inconvenienced I am ( or base don how pleased I am with what they do with my complaints).

All I can say is for the past 20 years, I’ve learned one lesson -— DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE Microsoft and their ability to compete.

From Word processors to networking to office applications to games to browsers to development tools to operating system clunkers like Windows 95 and Windows Vista to Games... people tend to curse and ridicule Microsoft in the beginning only to eat their words a few years later.

Count them -— Novell Netware, WordPerfect, Lotus 1-2-3 Netscape, Borland Development Systems, etc. what do they share in common? They were all eventually buried by Microsoft who came later.

Maybe Mobile applications are different... but then, maybe not.


13 posted on 06/12/2011 10:25:53 AM PDT by SeekAndFind (u)
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To: tennmountainman

RE: They NEVER develop products ahead of Apple. They simply follow Apples lead.

____________________________________________________________________________

Microsoft has seldom been first in any new technology... they always come later and then either buy you or bury you.
From Office Applications to Browsers to Databases to Development Tools to Games, that’s what they have been doing.


14 posted on 06/12/2011 10:28:04 AM PDT by SeekAndFind (u)
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To: Keith in Iowa

No, I mean consistent with routinely accepted industry watchdogs such as Gartner. In most reports its Android taking the lions share and windows is flat with blackberry, and iOS on the decline for market share.


15 posted on 06/12/2011 10:29:25 AM PDT by driftdiver (I could eat it raw, but why do that when I have a fire.)
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To: GWB00

Let’s do a little math her, to see it for what it is.

Last I’m aware of,

Mac’s comprise of 10% of the market, more or less.
Windows has about 85% of the market.

If the total number of computers were 1 million computers, before the growth,..., it would be that Mac’s went from 100,000 computers to 125000 computers, for an increase of 25,000 computers, whereas Windows went from 850000 computers to 867 000 computers, for an increase of 17000 computers.

Windows may have grown slower, but because it’s marketshare is so large, it didn’t lose that much to Apple at this point.

Microsoft would have to do much more stupid stuff before it really is in trouble.


16 posted on 06/12/2011 10:31:35 AM PDT by Jonty30
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To: Keith in Iowa

BTW, your rapid push to throw insults wasn’t much appreciated. Bye


17 posted on 06/12/2011 10:31:53 AM PDT by driftdiver (I could eat it raw, but why do that when I have a fire.)
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To: SeekAndFind

It’s a fair point and I guess we’ll see.

As I see it Microsoft’s dominance rested on three big factors.

1. Back in the early 1990’s they tamed the Tower of Babel that was PC hardware and software. Before Windows 3.1 came along there were no guarantees that Software Package A would work with Peripheral X would work on PC Clone D etc. etc. Microsoft imposed order on disorder and this continues to this day. This added real value to PC computing and they were amply rewarded for it.

2. They used their dominance in OS to push their dominance in Apps and vice versa.

3. They applied the business practices of John D. Rockefeller to a new field - hardware and software. Just as Rockefeller made the Railroads beholden to him for the privilege of shipping his oil, Bill Gates was able to get the various hardware and software manufacturers as well as consumers all dancing to his tune.

As far as I can tell none of these three things applies to the mobile space.

The Hardware architecture is proprietary and not open so you don’t have a comparable situation to the early days of the IBM PC. Software developers generally have to go through an “app store” so order is already being imposed upon them without the need for Microsoft. Even if Microsoft got to control the OS they would not and have not dominated the app space and there is no sign that this is coming. Finally, Microsoft is dependent of other companies in this new space - they are not the ones calling the shots.

Based on this I see no inherent advantages for Microsoft and if you were to stop people on the street and ask them would they like a Windows phone I think most people would probably laugh at the thought.

Sure anything’s possible - they might be able to recreate their past successes. But I wouldn’t bet on it.


18 posted on 06/12/2011 11:06:51 AM PDT by 2 Kool 2 Be 4-Gotten (Welcome to the USA - where every day is Backwards Day!)
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To: 2 Kool 2 Be 4-Gotten

What the computer companies are trying to do, which is why they are pushing everything onto the cloud, is have it set up so that you can move from one computer platform to another, whether it be from desktop to laptop to tablet or phone and continue whatever it was you were doing, without having to stop.

Odds are, if this is successful, you aren’t going to use a Windows computer at home, but not when you go out.


19 posted on 06/12/2011 11:31:32 AM PDT by Jonty30
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To: Jonty30

I really have to proof-read more.

I meant to say that if you use a Windows computer at home, you will probably still want to use one when you go out.


20 posted on 06/12/2011 11:38:54 AM PDT by Jonty30
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To: SeekAndFind

I wonder if the author has ever actually *used* a windows mobile phone?


21 posted on 06/12/2011 11:45:38 AM PDT by papertyger
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To: tennmountainman

Palm invented the smart phone.

In the US, Blackberry overtook them, globally, is was Nokia.

Apple relatively recently entered the market. I’m not sure they ever held the top spot in the US, I know they never held the top spot globally.

Overtaking iOS is a relatively unambitious goal.


22 posted on 06/12/2011 11:50:44 AM PDT by dangerdoc (see post #6)
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To: papertyger

Supposedly the new ones works quite nicely.

I’m not sure if I like the big blue and purple icons.


23 posted on 06/12/2011 11:51:23 AM PDT by Jonty30
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To: dangerdoc

Good example. But where is Palm now?
BTW, I owned several Palms and the browsers never worked well.


24 posted on 06/12/2011 11:54:38 AM PDT by tennmountainman
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To: tennmountainman; SeekAndFind
They [Microsoft] NEVER develop products ahead of Apple. They simply follow Apples lead.

Unfortunately, in the mobile space, Microsoft was years ahead of Apple.

You guys need a fact-checker to prevent you from regurgitating such lies.

On smartphones and PDAs, Microsft started with Windows CE in 1996 and kept developing/improving all the way through Windows Mobile 6.5 that was just discontinued.

Microsoft smartphones were far more capable than today's iPhone, but were hampered by hardware and network limitations.

Microsoft was also in tablets long before Apple, launching Windows for Pen Computing in 2001.

Ever hear of Windows XP Tablet Edition? It was geared to touchscreens and stylus input (for signatures, drawing and editing). Windows-based tablets are widely used in medical and other industries. These are work devices, not media players.

Lastly, the first music player was the Rio, launched in 1998. That was three years before Apple sold the first iPod. Yes, that was 4 years before Microsoft launched the Zune.

Oh, and if Microsoft is so far behind Apple, why do they have the XBox with Kinect (that Apple lost due to their irrational demands) and Apple still does not offer a gaming system?

25 posted on 06/12/2011 12:04:26 PM PDT by Erik Latranyi (Too many conservatives urge retreat when the war of politics doesn't go their way.)
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To: tennmountainman

It’s not exactly as if Apple invented the mobile phone.


26 posted on 06/12/2011 12:14:39 PM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: 9YearLurker

I never said Apple invented the mobile phone.


27 posted on 06/12/2011 12:17:02 PM PDT by tennmountainman
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To: tennmountainman

Was that before or after they invented the internet?


28 posted on 06/12/2011 4:36:20 PM PDT by BenKenobi (Honkeys for Herman!)
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To: BenKenobi

Apple did not invent the internet, one of their board members did.


29 posted on 06/12/2011 5:10:49 PM PDT by dangerdoc (see post #6)
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To: tennmountainman

Palm was years late delivering their next generation OS. Then when it did hit, the hardware sucked wind. It was suicide.


30 posted on 06/12/2011 5:16:56 PM PDT by dangerdoc (see post #6)
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To: SeekAndFind

the new windows phone 7 speaks for itself....BADLY.

nokia will not be helped and windows phone 7 will not help.

if anyone wants a closed phone system they would buy iphones not iphone done badly.

nokia was supposed to help symbian become dominant...


31 posted on 06/13/2011 9:02:56 AM PDT by longtermmemmory (VOTE! http://www.senate.gov and http://www.house.gov)
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