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Low fertility in Europe -- is there still reason to worry?
RAND Corporation ^ | June 17, 2011 | Unknown

Posted on 06/17/2011 11:46:27 AM PDT by decimon

The post-war trend of falling birth rates has been reversed across Europe, according to a new study. However, despite an increasing emphasis on family and fertility policies in Europe, this recent development involves social, cultural and economic factors more than individual policy interventions.

For some decades, couples have been having children later in life. But birth-rates among younger women have stabilised and the long-term trend towards lower fertility rates has been reversed.

Politicians are still left to grapple with problems associated with an ageing population as Europeans live longer and birth rates remain below the level needed to dramatically change the balance between young and older people.

In 2004, RAND Europe published a report which explored the issues associated with low birth rates in Europe. At that time the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) was below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman in every Member State of the EU. This new study updates the findings of the earlier report and examines the impact of the policy options available.

Lead author Stijn Hoorens said: 'The effects of individual policies aimed at family and fertility are relatively small and now the economic crisis has added a new level of uncertainty for policy makers. Early figures suggest that birth rates have fallen back in the wake of the economic down-turn.'

Key findings and implications

Since the early 2000s there have been signs of recovering fertility. In all but four countries of the EU (Cyprus, Luxembourg, Malta and Portugal), fertility rates increased between 2000 and 2008.

Despite this, the TFR remains below the replacement rate in all 27 EU countries and more than half (14) have a fertility rate below 1.5 children per women (all else being equal a fertility rate of 1.5 would lead to a population halving in size in fewer than seven decades).

There are signs of a 'two speed Europe' developing with north western European states having higher fertility rates than central, southern and German speaking states.

Nowadays, 1 in 5 babies in Europe has a mother who was born abroad. Migration is not the main reason behind the recovery of period fertility in Europe however. The reproductive behaviour of migrants played only a relatively modest role. But migration does tend to cause a rapid infusion of women in their reproductive years, which has a mitigating effect on population ageing.

Despite the recovery, Europe's populations continue to age and policy makers will have to address the consequences for pensions, health care etc. Emerging evidence suggests that the economic crisis has triggered an end to the trend of recovering fertility.

###

The report is available to read and download on the RAND Europe website at: http://www.rand.org/embargoed/monographs/MG1080.html


TOPICS: Society
KEYWORDS: deathofthewest; free; globalism; trade; world
Migration is not the main reason behind the recovery of period fertility in Europe however. The reproductive behaviour of migrants played only a relatively modest role.
1 posted on 06/17/2011 11:46:28 AM PDT by decimon
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To: decimon
"Migration is not the main reason behind the recovery of period fertility in Europe however. The reproductive behaviour of migrants played only a relatively modest role"

Difficult to believe that. And as long as the most popular name for newborn baby boys in Europe is "Mohammed" I'd argue they still have a very significant problem.

2 posted on 06/17/2011 11:50:01 AM PDT by katana
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To: decimon; SunkenCiv
I will go to France, Spain, Italy, and Portugal and volunteer my services.
3 posted on 06/17/2011 11:53:41 AM PDT by Perdogg (0bama got 0sama?? Really, was 0sama on the golf course?)
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To: katana
MIgration may not be the problem, but there are millions of unassimilated members of alien cultures who have been born in europe, and are now breeding. These people will be invisible unless ethnic identities are correlated with birth rates. France has their hordes of Algerians, many born in France, Germany has a large contingent of German born people who are culturally Turkish moslems, and so on. These people are in their second and third generations. Betcha they have more kids than the original european Germans and Frenchmen.
4 posted on 06/17/2011 11:59:58 AM PDT by hinckley buzzard
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To: katana

Let’s hope that some of the migrants are good people like the Poles, who have been spreading to places like Britain.


5 posted on 06/17/2011 12:04:43 PM PDT by hellbender
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To: katana; decimon

you two should both nailed that one fast!!!

...i’d sure like to see the exact numbers, of muslims and non-muslims.

it says: “In all but four countries of the EU (Cyprus, Luxembourg, Malta and Portugal), fertility rates increased between 2000 and 2008.” yet, it says the rates are still all BELOW 1.5 so the “increase” is very slight.

and if this is true:
“Nowadays, 1 in 5 babies in Europe has a mother who was born abroad.”

then almost ALL the increase must be from Muslim immigration. yet they state the exact opposite?

...and we know the truth is as katana stated.
soon the name “mohammad” will be as common in Europe, as it is in Saudi Arabia or Pakistan...


6 posted on 06/17/2011 12:07:42 PM PDT by Elendur (the hope and change i need: Sarah / Colonel West in 2012)
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To: hellbender

this is from 2 fairly reputable British papers:

Muslim population ‘rising 10 times faster than rest of society’
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article5621482.ece
“The population multiplied 10 times faster than the rest of society, the research by the Office for National Statistics reveals.
In the same period the number of Christians in the country fell by more than 2 million. “

Will Britain one day be Muslim?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-452815/Will-Britain-day-Muslim.html


7 posted on 06/17/2011 12:14:03 PM PDT by Elendur (the hope and change i need: Sarah / Colonel West in 2012)
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To: decimon

Just watch “Demographic Winter.”
http://fi.cross.tv/30550

When society becomes prosperous they have fewer children.


8 posted on 06/17/2011 12:28:04 PM PDT by Jack Hydrazine (It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine!)
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To: decimon
The reproductive behaviour of migrants played only a relatively modest role

Bunk. I'm in Europe all the time. Central Paris looks like Africa - both Central and Northern. Certain suburbs are heavily Arab. The only places not like this are in the countryside.

The only countries not like that in Europe are former Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact countries - Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, and the Baltics mainly (Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia). There's no political correctness in those countries; intensely nationalistic, they're righteous about their land.

Whatta concept.

9 posted on 06/17/2011 12:32:32 PM PDT by Regulator (Watch Out! Americans are on the March! America Forever, Mexico Never!)
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To: decimon

Lies, damned lies, and statistics. The men who bombed the public transportation in London were English: legal British subjects, born in England, English-speaking, attended English schools. The “youths” who keep burning cars in France are French, as their legal nationality: second- or third-generation French-born citizens.

Sort the births by the ethnicity of the parents’ surnames, and we’d learn something useful ... only we already know it.


10 posted on 06/17/2011 12:36:22 PM PDT by Tax-chick (One step ahead of the jailer.)
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To: decimon
"Migration is not the main reason behind the recovery of period fertility in Europe however. The reproductive behaviour of migrants played only a relatively modest role."

As soon as I saw this the BS alarm went off. The selfish, idiot, homosexual left of Europe doesn't want to be bogged down with offspring. Not so with the muslims. They're going to take over before long.
11 posted on 06/17/2011 12:38:12 PM PDT by youngidiot (Hear Hear!)
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To: Regulator
intensely nationalistic, they're righteous about their land.

And they have death-spiral birthrates, all of them. It's not like those are terrific places, just based on geography, especially with Global Warming's being a crock. Maybe when the current ethnic groups die out, it will just be vacant land, except for what the Chinese take in Siberia and the Turks in the Black Sea area.

12 posted on 06/17/2011 12:39:58 PM PDT by Tax-chick (One step ahead of the jailer.)
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To: decimon

An outright lie; who are you going to believe, the article or your lying eyes?

This same demographic scenario is playing out right here in the US, and is being downplayed (if not outright ignored). Anybody walking past a playground here in northern NJ can’t miss the fact that in towns that are officially 90% “white”, 2/3 of the children (and the accompanying parents) aren’t. I think they’ve been using 1980 stats for decades at this point.

Even more telling: maternity wards. 2 white babies, 2 black babies, and 10 Hispanic babies. These aren’t junior “guest workers”; they’re here to stay (and automatically citizens). It really will be interesting to see what this means; in NYC a few years ago it meant “gay marriage” didn’t even make it to a vote.


13 posted on 06/17/2011 1:11:16 PM PDT by kearnyirish2
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To: Jack Hydrazine

“When society becomes prosperous they have fewer children.”

When society becomes secular & materialistic they have fewer children. Saudis are prosperous, and Osama Bin Laden had 50 siblings.


14 posted on 06/17/2011 1:13:14 PM PDT by kearnyirish2
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To: Regulator

Isn’t Poland also non-PC about muzzie invasive migration?

IIRC, Polish immigrants to the U.K. are providing a welcome hardworking Christian western counterpresence to the muzzie disease.

Maybe Poles everywhere still remember how Jan Sobieski saved Europe from the muzzie hordes in 1683. Time to be great again, Polish people!


15 posted on 06/17/2011 1:46:49 PM PDT by elcid1970 ("Deport Muslims. Nuke Mecca. Death to Islam. Freedom for mankind.")
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To: decimon
"...is there still reason to worry?"

Of course not. There are hundreds of millions of people in the developing countries favored by our liberaltarian, multi-partisan leaders, and they'll be happy to move in. Same here in America, obviously.


16 posted on 06/17/2011 1:52:44 PM PDT by familyop (We Baby Boomers are croaking in a thunderous avalanche of rottenness heard across the universe.)
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To: Tax-chick; Regulator

excellent excellent point!!!
...that would certainly show even more difference between traditional europeans and muslims...

...and with personal reports like Regulator confirming this, i am sadly starting to believe Mark Steyn was an optimist...


17 posted on 06/17/2011 2:06:11 PM PDT by Elendur (the hope and change i need: Sarah / Colonel West in 2012)
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To: kearnyirish2; All
great point by kearnyirish2, about wealthy Muslims like Osama still having many children. those stats about wealth and birthrate don't apply to true believers. (example, wealthy Mormons still have a high rate). ...many muslims, including Imams, have flat admitted they will defeat us with demographics. (yet if we QUOTE them, we are called "Islamophobes". Here, in this article, bin Laden HIMSELF, the biggest terrorist in the world, is quoted saying his MOST important issue... was BIRTHRATE. (said indirectly, since unmarried woman aren't supposed to have children.): http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2733763/posts " Dr. Sa'd Al-Sharif: His primary front – even prior to his Jihad – was the front of the polygamy, believing that we must spread the notion of polygamy throughout the nation. He would quote statistics about the number of unmarried women… Interviewer: He couldn’t think of anything more important than the issue of unmarried Muslim women?! "
18 posted on 06/17/2011 2:16:11 PM PDT by Elendur (the hope and change i need: Sarah / Colonel West in 2012)
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To: Elendur

The amazing thing is how many people forecast this even prior to WWII (and not just Nazis). When people refer to the post-WWII drop in births, they ignore the fact that in some countries (France in particular) the birthrate had already dropped, and was basically the given reason for the rapid collpase in 1940.


19 posted on 06/17/2011 2:26:06 PM PDT by kearnyirish2
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To: Tax-chick
And they have death-spiral birthrates, all of them

Welll...that's changing.

Russian women are still a) mostly very attractive, and b) a lot more religious then Russian males. Orthodox Christianity is making a comeback even though the government still wants to control it (some things never change in Russia). So Russian women want to have children and raise them in their church. I know enough of them to believe this; I even know Russian Evangelicals. Once the two decade long party known as "Thank God Communism is OVER!" gets over (and it's dying down now), they'll get back to making Russian babies and trying to resurrect their society after the 70 year disaster.

Belarus...very different because they still have Lukashenko, haven't let go of the past. But eventually that won't matter...all around them the world will change, and even he won't be able to do anything about it.

Ukraine wants to be part of the West, but unfortunately the ethnic Russians have a hard time with that. But the Mommies want good stuff for their babies and they won't give a damn what the nostalgics think, I know a number of them and they love kids and being Mothers, they will not be stopped by retro Bolshevikii. Religious people too.

The Baltics? They are not part of the Russian East and no Tsar was ever able to make them. Once the Russian army was gone they bolted politically and spiritually right back to being the Northern Europeans they are. Don't worry, they like themselves and their kids, they'll be back. My Estonian stepgrandmother told me so!

20 posted on 06/17/2011 3:46:17 PM PDT by Regulator (Watch Out! Americans are on the March! America Forever, Mexico Never!)
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To: Regulator

I hope you’re right about a general trend toward a higher birthrate, rather than isolated data points. It’s not unusual for very religious families in the US to have many children, but there aren’t enough, as a percentage of the population, to affect the average very much.


21 posted on 06/17/2011 4:09:34 PM PDT by Tax-chick (One step ahead of the jailer.)
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To: kearnyirish2

Name me a nation in the present or past that did not become secular or materialist as its prosperity rose.

Not every man in the Middle East is having 50 children because the gap between rich and poor is very wide. They are commanded by Allah to have as many children as possible as new recruits for the jihad against the planet.

Even today Saudi Arabia has a national fertility rate of only 3.0 whereas the USA is at 2.1.


22 posted on 06/17/2011 5:09:07 PM PDT by Jack Hydrazine (It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine!)
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To: decimon

bump


23 posted on 06/17/2011 6:30:04 PM PDT by WashingtonSource
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To: Jack Hydrazine

Well, the secular part is easiest: the Gulf states have resisted secular influences as they’ve become the wealthiest nations on the earth. If anything, they’ve become increasingly religious.

As far as the materialistic part, I think you have to ask yourself which came first, the chicken or the egg? I personally see a noticeable decline in my standard of living as a result of having children, and have always understood that was the price (having come from a large family myself). The “prosperity” rose as breeding tapered off; we now have a whole segment of forty- to sixty- year-olds griping about the invasion of foreigners without realizing their own contribution to this issue.

When societies choose new cars over new children, they aren’t long for this world (see western Europe, as well as the US WASP culture for examples). The secular, materialistic way of life in the US isn’t being overthrown in some violent invasion of darker people from the south; it is being bred (or rather, not bred) into extinction on its own. Who do you think is having the lion’s share of the 2.1 children in the US?


24 posted on 06/17/2011 8:56:44 PM PDT by kearnyirish2
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To: decimon

bttt


25 posted on 08/28/2011 2:43:41 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican
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