Posted on 08/05/2011 6:43:44 PM PDT by Noumenon
Economic Collapse & Security: I Am Your Worst Nightmare
By Jeff T.
I am the leader of a band of 8-to-12 looters. I have some basic military training. We move from place to place like locusts devouring everything in our path. My group is armed with light weapons and can develop and follow simple plans of attack. We take what we want by force of arms. We prefer none of our victims survive because that could cause problems for us in the future. It has been six months since the grid went down. You and the other five members of your party have settled into what may be a long grinding existence. The every day tasks of growing and gathering have now become routine. The news from the outside is extremely limited but you don’t really miss it much. Life is simple but physically demanding.
Although things may seem stable you will need to keep your team focused and alert. This is your first and most important layer of defense. You should hold an immediate reaction drill once per week. Keep things simple. Practice a specific response to such threats as injury, fire, attack and evacuation. Despite the challenges you must maintain contact with those around you such as neighbors for vital clues that trouble is brewing. Regular monitoring the radio will be critical in providing an early warning of trouble. You may be able to safely interview refugees with risking your party. Keep in mind the information you get from them may not always be reliable.
While you have been farming I have been learning the best tactics to employ to seize your property and your goods. I have been refining them since we hit the road right after the lights went out. I have conducted eight “hits” so far and have been successful seven times. Here are some of my “lessons learned”.
Intelligence gathering and target selection is critical to my success. Targets include those who have large quantities of fuel, food and other valuable supplies. My posse is constantly questioning anyone and everyone we contact searching for this our next victim. Anyone who has ever had knowledge, even second hand, of your preparations is someone of interest to me. I may approach them directly or indirectly. If anyone knows something I will find out about it. Who seems well-fed? Who still has transportation? Who has lights? Who was prepared? Where are they exactly? Somebody talks, either in person or on the radio. They always do.
We search for victims night and day. During the day we are listening for the sounds of machinery, cars, tractors, gunfire or generators. Day or night without a lot of wind those sounds can carry for miles. At night I look for any sort of light. Even a small flash indicates somebody with electricity and that means a rich target. I always have somebody listing to the scanner for any news, leads or insecure chatter. Operational Security (OPSEC) is an important concept for your entire group to understand and maintain. If somebody outside your circle doesn’t have a real need to know about your plans, preparations or procedures then they shouldn’t know period. Develop a cover story and live it like was a bulletproof vest. It is no less important to your protection and survival. During an event you need to blend in with the surrounding environment. Carefully observe noise (such as generators and other engines) and light discipline especially at night. If you need to test fire weapons do it in one sequence to avoid a prolonged noise signature.
Once I find and target you reconnaissance of your retreat is my next step. Only a fool would try to rush in and try to overwhelm a group of “survivalists”. We had a bad experience with that during our second hit. Now we spend at least a day or two trying to size up a large opportunity and the best way to take it down. I will observe retreat activity from a nearby-concealed position. I will get an idea of your numbers, weapons, routines and so much more by careful surreptitious observation. If your group seems alert, I will try and trigger a false alarm with a dog or child to watch your reaction to a threat. That helps me know how you respond, where you are strong and how to attack. I may also obtain a topographical map of the area to identify likely avenues of approach and potential escapes routes you will try to use. I may coerce your neighbors into uncovering a weak spot or access point or other important intelligence. I also have a Bearcat handheld scanner. I will be listening for any insecure chatter from your radios.
Regular patrols at irregular intervals focused on likely observation points and avenues of approach could keep me at bay. You could put down sand or other soft soil in key choke points as a way of “recording” if anyone has recently traveled through the land. Dogs, with their advanced sense of hearing and smell are able to detect and alert you to intruders well in advance of any human. Motion sensing infrared video cameras as a part of a security plan could play a part in your layered defense as long as you have power. A 24 hour manned observation point equipped with high quality optical tools is a must. It should be fortified and if possible concealed. It should have a weapon capable of reaching to the edges of your vision. Seismic intrusion devices, night vision and thermal imaging are phenomenal force multiplying tools. They can give you critical intelligence and warning. You should use them if you have them. Understand they are not fool proof and I can often neutralize them if I know you have them.
These tools and techniques provide you reaction time. Time to plan your response and time to execute that plan. Recognize that a “defender” is always at a disadvantage. By definition a defender will be reacting to my attack. Modern warfare has emphasized the ability of the attacker to operate faster than opponents can react. This can be explained by the OODA loop. Below are the four steps of the classic OODA loop. These are the steps a defender goes through when under attack.
1. Observing or noticing the attack.
2. Orient to the direction, method and type of attack.
3. Deciding what the appropriate response will be.
4. Acting on that decision.
As an attacker I will try and operate at a pace faster than you as a defender can adjust to. I will change my direction, pace, timing and method to force you to continue to process through the OODA loop. This creates confusion and wastes your precious reaction time. As a defender you will need to disrupt or reset your attackers timing with a counter-attack. When you are successful you become the attacker. Your defensive plans should utilize and exploit this concept. Here are a few scenarios:
1. Snipe & Siege
I will begin the attack when I can engage at least half of your party’s military age personnel in one coordinated effort. I will infiltrate my team into concealed positions around your retreat within 50 to 75 yards. I will target any identified leadership with the first volley. Two thirds of my people will be engaging personnel. The other group will target communications antennas, surveillance cameras and any visible lighting assets. I want your group unable to see, communicate or call for help. The members of my band will each fire two magazines in the initial exchange. Two thirds of my group will change to new concealed positions and wait. One third will fall back into an ambush of the most likely avenue of escape. We will stay concealed and wait until you come out to attend to your wounded and dead. We repeat the attack as necessary until any resistance is crushed.
Ensure you adjust the landscape around your retreat so that I don’t have anyplace offering cover or concealment within 100 yards of your residence. You can create decorative masonry walls that can be used to offer cover for personnel close to your residence. Fighting positions can be built now and used as raised planting beds and then excavated for use in the future. These can be extended or reinforced after any significant event. These structures or other measures such as trenching must be sited carefully to avoid allowing them to be used effectively by an attacker if they are overrun.
2. Trojan Horse
For one hit we used an old truck. We forced a refugee to drive it to the retreat gate. We concealed half our group inside the truck. The truck was hardened on the inside with some sandbags around the edges. The other half of our group formed an ambush concealed inside the tree line along the driveway. We killed the driver to make it look good and had one person run away. Those preppers almost waited us out. After nearly three hours they all walked slowly down the driveway. They were bunched up in a group intent on checking out the truck and driver. It was like shooting fish in a barrel.
They could have worked together as group to sweep the area 360 degrees around the truck and they would have surely found us. A dog would have also alerted the residents to our presence. They could have taken measures to eliminate the vegetation offering us concealment on the road near the gate. They could have used CS gas or something similar to “deny” any suspicious areas. Lastly they could have done a “reconnaissance by fire”. Shooting into likely hiding spots, including the truck, trying to evoke a response. They should have established an over watch position with the majority of their group. This over watch group would have provided visual security and an immediate response if there were an attack. They were not expecting any additional threats. They didn’t consider that there might be additional danger lurking nearby aside from the truck and they died.
3. Kidnap & Surrender
A few weeks ago we surprised and captured a couple of women out tending a garden. It was totally by chance. We were traveling through a very rural area on our way to another town when somebody heard a tractor backfire. We immediately stopped and I sent a small team to recon the noise. They bumped into a small party tending a field at the edge of their retreat. They seized two women and immediately dragged them back to our vehicles. We began negotiations by sending a finger from each one back to the retreat under a white flag. The rest was easy.
This didn’t need to happen. Better noise discipline would have kept us from discovering their retreat. Some simple boundary fencing or tangle foot could have delayed us. The women should have been armed and aware of such a threat. If they has established an over watch for the garden they could have engaged us before we took our hostages or at least alerted the others that there was a problem. They also could have had a quick reaction Standard Operating Procedure (SOP)developed prior to this incident. That Quick Reaction (QR) force could have followed the kidnappers back to our vehicles and set up an ambush of their own. Rural retreat security is a full time job. If you snooze you may lose everything.
4. Fire and Maneuver
I don’t like this option but sometimes the prize is just too tempting. We typically infiltrate quietly at night to prearranged start points. We begin our attack just before dawn when your senses are dulled by a long night watch or from sleep. Based on our reconnaissance we divided your retreat into positions or zones that need specific attention. We prepare for battle by using an air rifle to target any lights or cameras. Our first priority is to engage any site and destroy or degrade them as much as possible. I split my forces into two supporting groups. One group keeps the target position under constant fire. The other group also fires and maneuvers, closing on the target and destroying it with gunfire or improvised weapons. Many times these positions only have one occupant and the task is relatively easy. Often these positions are easy to spot and are too far from each other to provide any effective mutual support. We will work from one position to the next. In the darkness and confusion most of the defenders are disoriented and ineffective. They fall like dominos. We have also used motorcycles to negotiate obstacles and speed through cuts in the perimeter fence. Then throw Molotov Cocktails into any defensive position as they roar past. If you fall back into your residence we will set up a siege. If we can maneuver close enough, perhaps by using a distraction, we will pump concentrated insecticide into your building or we may introduce liquid Propane gas from a portable tank into the house and ignite it with tracer fire.
If there was enough warning time from your OP you could execute a pre-planned response. Your planned response should be simple, easy to understand and execute. Half your group occupies your fighting positions, two to a position. The rest of your party establishes an over watch and concentrate its fire at the enemies trying to fix your positions. If you had more than enough prepared positions the enemy might not know where to attack. It would also provide more flexibility in your defense based on the direction of attack. I would use Night Vision if available or illumination from flares or lights as a last resort. Rats hate light.
Usually people keep main access points blocked from high-speed approach. Likely avenues of approach should also be blocked or choked and kept under observation. Remember though what keeps me out keeps you in. Typically the common techniques of parking vehicles in roadways will only delay my approach not stop it altogether. An ordinary 12-gauge shotgun, shooting slugs, can stop most types of non-military vehicles at close range.
Don’t forget the threat of fire or other non-traditional weapons in your defensive plans.
You could create the illusion of a “dead end” for your main access road by positioning a burned out trailer home or a couple of burned out cars at the false “end” of the road. Concealing the fact that the road actually continues to your residence.
Lastly, develop a plan to evacuate and evade capture. When faced with a significantly superior force it may be the only viable option. This should include simple, reliable communications or signals such as three blasts on a dog whistle. Your fighting positions and barriers need to be constructed to allow coordinated withdrawal in an emergency. You should establish a rally point and time limit to assemble. I believe this should be a priority in your practice drills. During a real emergency you may be able to rally, rearm and plan your own version of the “snipe and siege” to retake your retreat.
Key messages:
Your rural retreat defense can be visualized as a set of concentric rings:
Location – Location – Location: High and remote are best OPSEC – Think of it as a form of armor or shield: Practice it and protect it. Observation Post / Listening Post: Your first best chance to counter attack Gates / Fences / other barriers: May slow me down. Might keep you in. Fighting positions: Must provide mutual support and allow for evacuation. Residence: Last line. Don’t become trapped People, Planning and Practice
Remember:
An aggressive and unexpected counter strike can win the battle. Stay alert for multiple threats or diversionary tactics. Criminals excel at feigning weakness to lower your guard.
Don’t underestimate me.
My reason for posting this is obvious but should be a reminder survival is always best done as a community. During difficult times there are always things to be done and no one can do everything and still sleep. Everyone can bring something that aids the group. Just a little friendly reminder. - NewAmericaNow
In the words of another but appropriate here ‘I have killed men who would make a meal of you.’ reducing the size of the gene pool has never troubled me.
Look like the innocent flower, but be the serpent underneath it. Lady Macbeth
Agreed. My wife has an MA in Ed and finds the ‘computer’ intimidating.
Your assessment of women is very jaded. In my household, I’m the one who keeps the lists of survival necessities on the computer. I may not be purchasing things like ammo or generators, but they are marked on my list. He totes home other items that I need for food storage. We work as a team. Without me by his side, we couldn’t work effectively to protect our family. We’re married. Every decision is made between us. We’re in for the long haul. The goal is to make it to our 50th anniversary, together.
My husband doesn’t tell me “no” but he makes fun of me and my son thinks I am insane.
My husband thinks we have a lot of food but he hasn’t seen most of it. He doesn’t even know that he has some in the top of his closet.
As far as guns and ammo, they just like guns and ammo so I don’t have to worry about that.
I have to say that I asked them to get more gasoline and they did and I asked for a propane tank and they got me one but they roll their eyes everytime I ask for something.
My husband has said that we can’t defend ourselves against a horde of looters and I told him that when/if the SHTF we are digging an 8 foot ditch with sharpened bamboo at the bottom and then we just have to defend against those who get across.
Fascinating.
bttt
Maybe the woman in your life or those you know are like this...I don’t know any women that do not believe in being prepared...don’t personally know any women that expect the government to be able to or want to help in crisis, none that oppose survivalist skills or even a single one that is anti-gun.
Yes, I am jaded I have had a lot of good teachers.
And this woman has an AR15 but prefers to keep her shotgun beside her desk while she works on her food inventory.
All of my girlfriends and I have firearms and are prepping. I don’t have enough stuff yet (though who ever really considers that he or she does have enough?) but I’m accumulating it constantly.
The truth is that when SHTF comes to pass, I won’t last long; I’m a woman, I’m alone, I’m getting on in years, and my location isn’t ideal. But I’ll hold out as long as I can.
Personally, I have never understood why you men choose such silly, light-minded, liberal-leaning women to marry, when what you want is a mate who will stand beside you through thick and thin. There are plenty of us female conservatives, and female NRA members are not exactly rare.
He wasn’t threatening he was teaching. And remember that most feral trash don’t read they prey on others an evolve or fail as they act with minimal planning or prep.
You an I need to understand an accept the fact there will always be someone evil with better skills at some point an plan a defense in depth to hopefully counter such.
You clearly know your area an that is your strong point.
A good drill to consider for your next training session is to grab the ruck an weapon you keep in your vehicle an have a friend drop you off 40 miles from home in a urban environment ...... Get home safely.
.... Stay safe !
Consider the good guys in current day the same bad guys that will be watching you if SHTF tomorrow......They will tell others if they see ya.
.... my M4gery broke down in half then gets stuffed into the ruck BTW when I did this “exercise”.....:o) My CHL sidearm is still CHL.
Key is outta sight , outta mind and moving a long distance afoot back to family if needed. I have added a good mountain bike under my locking bed cover on my truck. It’s tried an true, tested and reinforced where I need it. It will get me home if I do my part.
We’re all here to learn.... anyone who says they know it all is a hazard. Just ideas to share and consider. Each persons situation and environment will always be different. I live in the boonies so crisis and unfamiliar location is not something I want to experience when I have to. I’d rather test and train now, knowing things in same areas may be much worse.
Hope yer well.....:o)
“Head for the hills” does not work very well for very long.
Virtually everything we have or use today requires a machine shop.
Can you live without these things:
paint and paintbrushes
bandages and medicines
shaving razors
brass shell casings
rubber
plastic
metal knives
glass
spark plugs
motor oil
auto oil filter
fishing line
metal components of tack for horses
clothing, cloth, thread, sewing needles
underwear
flour to make bread
shoes
canned food
concrete
hammers and nails
well pump
irrigation pipe
writing implement
countless other things
As all their possessions, clothing, trucks, cars, guns, knives, hammers, pitchforks, generators, gears, etc., wear out and eventually become useless, a familiy that had “escaped into the hills” would find their camping trip becoming far less comfortable than living in a city 4,000 years ago. Anyone who can’t make their own shoes will be required to trade for them or go barefoot, for example. If one is going to drill every hole in the wood of one’s fort with a HAND DRILL, the simplest kind of drill that will last the longest - what to do if it breaks ? New hand drills have to be made.
All farming products must be created on farms. Unfortunately, farms can’t be picked up and moved about, they’re pretty darn stationary. They’re also very hard to defend. If an enemy wants to destroy a farm, they simply need to fight the farmer - they can even lose and run away - they will have messed up the crops for that year.
All manufactured products have to be made in some kind of shop. The shop may be ever so humble, but a shop must be used. A lathe can’t be carted about on one’s back in the woods and set up outside. It needs a concrete floor, it needs climate control. Or it simply will not produce accurate parts. And eventually, the lathe will need repair.
Now if one has a vacation or hunting cabin near a nice little town way up in the woods, say NE Pennsylvania - well, that’s a little different. One could have one’s stockpiles there and set things up so that with a little trading with nearby people and a nearby small town that the everyday comforts of life could be maintained while costing a minimal amount. The town would be small enough and far enough from big cities that the “evil warlord” would not want to waste their time “attacking the cabins up by the lake”. That kind of situation would perhaps work as a peaceful area some folks could run to if their city/suburb had some big public safety problems. Any “attack” way out in the boonies will make everyone else who lives out there band together to repel the “band of thieves”.
The U.S. has vast tracts of land where the population is spread thin. And millions of people concentrated in cities and suburbs who couldn’t survive on their own in the woods beyond a few weeks.
Hence, the “big battle” of some “big chaos” would be decided very quickly, within a year or two. The more “chaos” there is, the more uncomfortable everyone gets. Groups of harassed citizens, living in a city or town, if things got really bad, would hire and recruit fighters to defend their area, and rather ruthlessly and unceremoniously execute intruders - so they could go on about their lives. One only has to attend a town meeting and see the typical nastiness to imagine how long societal breakdown would be tolerated; simple property changes can cause hatred and grudges that last for decades.
If the “run to the hills” is viewed only as temporary, until some “battle of warlords” is settled and the “escapees” then plan on rejoining a more stable society, then perhaps the creature comforts will be in a tolerable state long enough to make it practical. But a permanent “run to the hills” is simply a lot more uncomfortable than most imagine.
If there is widespread “chaos”, someone or some group would rise to the top and take control through physical force. Whoever has the most military and ex-military at their command stands the best chance of being that person - about 99% chance. And if I’m living alone in a cave, and there are millions back in the city - why would anyone waste time coming out to my cave to steal my last few cans of beans, with a whole city of rubes to rob.
In any struggle, supplies eventually become the deciding factor. The survivalist idea is romantic, but civilization has advanced to the point where most people can’t come close to being able to achieve any sort of decent life completely on their own. Anyone who wants to survive completely on their own should be making their own bows and arrows and learning how to use them, practicing up on making knives, hand tools and farming implements. It’s the blacksmith who will be hold the keys to prosperity.
So for most of the survivalists and the rest of the 300 million Americans who can’t run to the hills, they need to trade with each other for their everyday needs.
300 million starving Americans - I’d hate to be the one standing between them and their supper. How to survive in the city may be the best knowledge of all.
BFL
I live in Florida which is flat and covered in trees. The farthest I can see in my area is about 1/2 mile unless I'm on the interstate or in a tall building. On the ground visibility can go down to 2 or 3 feet. But if they want to hump it through a couple miles of alligator and snake infested swamp to get to my place they are welcome to try.
I am a woman and have planned for the worst - all the way down to bug-out bags - caches around property - weapons - 3 different water sources - back-up location with supplies.
But maybe I’m unusual - since my passion of study is military logistics.
Re your post 13, you have described Mrs. OldPossum to a “T.” Nevertheless, I have devoted a section of my basement to prepping and am steadily filling it.
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