MLB Playoff Odds = Coolstandings (Red Sox, Braves)

Coolstandings ^ | September 23, 2011

[campaignPete R-CT]

Playoff odds for BOSTON and ATLANTA are still near or over 80% despite the tightening wildcard races.

Boston 88 68 .564 WC probability: 84.2%

Atlanta 88 68 .564 WC probability: 86.2%

Using simple 'dumb' stats (assume every team has a 50% chance of winning every game), the Red Sox face the following odds:
eliminate Tampa before WED 9-28: 53%
eliminate Tampa & LAA before WED 9-28: 45%
clinch on WED 9-28: 31%
clinch in playoff game(s) on TH and/or FRI: 8%
Sox eliminated before WED: 1%
Sox eliminated on WED: 5%
eliminated in playoff game(s) on TH and/or FRI: 10%

The numbers for ATL are almost identical. The slight difference is due to SF being 4 GB, while LAA is 3 GB the Sox.

In the real world, one could argue that the Sox seem to have about a 50% chance in each game (not playing well), but LAA, TB (and ATL STL) have a better chance (often 60% or 65%), depending on the opponent and pitching matchups.

Thus more accurate odds for the Sox are likely:

eliminate Tampa & LAA before WED 9-28: 40%
clinch on WED 9-28: 28%
clinch in playoff game(s) on TH and/or FRI: 7%

for a total playoff probability of 75%.

I believe that precise odds for ATL are more difficult to calculate because it is uncertain how PHILLY will play vs. ATL next week, as PHILLY will be resting players for the playoffs, etc.

[campaignPete R-CT]

Try the smart standings on that site also. I am sure somebody can come on here and trump me with a "more thorough treatment of the material."

I used simple permutation stuff.

[Billthedrill]

Odds on the Mariners making it haven’t changed much...since 2007...

[edh]

Odds on the Pirates making it haven’t changed much...since 1992... ;-)

[skeeter]

Gave up on the Gigantes last night.

If they were gonna lose a series at this point, at least they could've lost to the Diamondbacks.

[madison10]

DEEE—troit.

[commish]

Despite the odds Coolstandings shows, the Braves have a very difficult task even with a 2 game lead.

The Braves Offence has been, well - OFFENSIVE for the last month and they are facing two of the best pitching staffs in the NL. The Nationals have had a team ERA of 2.94 in September and are throwing Strasbourg (who has been unhittable since coming back) tonight. Philly will probably go a little easier with thier top pitchers maybe going 3 or 4 tuneup innings.

Meanwhile the Cards are playing outstanding baseball and face the Chicago SCRubs and the Houston LASTros to finish the season.

Should be interesting.

[campaignPete R-CT]

well, if STL has an expected win EXPW of 4 of last 6 and ATL has EXPW of 3 of 6 ... then the Braves % is reduced to about 70%.

Rain in NY is gonna mess with the BOS rotation this weekend.

The Curse of the Bambino has been replaced with the Curse of the Rainbow Love Agenda. We need a name for it.

The Boston idol is melting.

[Hatteras]

My Orioles doing their best and still in a position... to play spoiler. Now if they can just drop the next 3 to TB while the Yankees whack the Sawx... and then the O’s finish up where they left off the other night... ;-)

Sorry, but anybody.... ANYBODY but the Sux.

[campaignPete R-CT]

Unexpectedly, was able to get Nationals radio 1500 AM up here in CT on the car radio and heard the end of the Braves victory.

The CARDS trail tonite, so those odds are looking good for ATL now! Ye who doubted.

Not sure if Bender will be chiming in on the Rangers. He prolly know dat baseball and sexy girls don’t mix.

[Bender2]

Re: Not sure if Bender will be chiming in on the Rangers. He prolly know dat baseball and sexy girls don’t mix

Your point is... what?

If red X above go to http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images_root/slides/photos/000/814/178/sexy-texas-rangers-fan-6_display_image.jpg?1301253820

[campaignPete R-CT]

reminder to selfL
combinations equal n!/[r! * (n-r)!]

[campaignPete R-CT]

and it only took 7.5 minutes for you to come up with the Rangers answer to the sexy girl question. Only the tin-man coulda done it.

Sox clearly over 80% now
Braves clearly over 90% now

The main question is whether Lester and Hudson hafta pitch next week and, thus, effecting their first start in the division series.

[Bender2]

Re: and it only took 7.5 minutes for you to come up with the Rangers answer... to the sexy girl question. Only the tin-man coulda done it.

Well, in fact, I am not a big baseball nor Rangers fan per say... so I had to dig up that sexy Ranger Gal.

Luckily, due to my large following with the fairer sex... I keep a bullpen of sexy gals around for just such emercencies!

[big'ol_freeper]

It's the national pastime... ...

... and baseball ain't bad either.

Healthy Sox fans

[Bender2]

Well, big, I recall meeting a sexy Baaaston Red Sox gal once... and as usual she... lost her head over me--

Bendy is my lovebot... and no Red Sox bimbo is going to mess with him!

[Little Bill]

Binder, I grew up in Mass, there is no way that the women in those photos are native. Mass is cold, small breast country. Yankees Suck.