Skip to comments.USDA Predicts Surging Food Prices in Coming Year
Posted on 10/30/2011 6:55:00 PM PDT by JDW11235
The USDA has released their projections for food price inflation in 2011/2012, showing troubling forecasts that may send you to the grocery store today, before paying higher prices tomorrow. The report shows that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all food increased 0.8 percent between 2009 and 2010, and is forecasted to increase 3.5 to 4.5 percent in 2011.
Items that are expected to inflate the most include beef, cooking oils, and seafood. Processed vegetables and beverages were projected to to see smaller changes in the CPI. The Wall Street Journal notes that the midpoint of the new USDA outlook signals the sharpest acceleration in the food inflation rate from one year to the next since 1978, and makes the increase itself the biggest since 2008, when prices rose 5.5%. While things may seem bleak for the rest of the year, the USDA projects that prices will rise only 2.5 percent next year.
(Excerpt) Read more at theblaze.com ...
I thought that you might be interested.
I see Glenn Beck is wrong again.
You’ll have to tell me what you’re referring to for me to follow...
I used to have no problem finding 99 cent five pound bags of potatoes. Now they are usually two bucks.
Chicken legs? Now I usually have to pay .69 cents on sale when it used to be easy to find them for .49 cents. Some foods are flat - I can still often find split chicken breasts for .99 cents (the best buy for chicken AFAIC) - and pasta can be found for .89-.99 cents a box - have a nice stash of whole wheat pasta for .99 cents a box.
But my larger point stands that there has been significant spot inflation in many low-end staples.
Food prices already are out of control. The media doesn’t say one word about obama’s inflation.
This is bull. When you count product shrinkage, most foodstuffs have gone up 25 to 30 percent. It’s getting kind of scary going grocery shopping.
We used to be considered comfortable middle-class sorts. Not any more. I just shop for the sale stuff.
And what’s with this “water added” to ham? We pay dollars per pound for water?
I am a very price aware shopper, too. I have bought foods by using a list, and have been the list maker and budgeter for nearly twenty years. I remember when deli ham was $0.99, or just a few years ago (5 years to be exact), when I moved to this area Ham was about $2.99, London Broil was 99 cents a pound, and petite sirloin steak was $2.29. Today, that london broil is over 3 dollars a pound, and petite sirloin went up to over 7 dollars, but is now back down to around $5, $4 or so on a good sale.
Milk in this area used to be $0.99, at most $1.69 (for whole), just last year, and is now over $2.89 most of the time. Cheese has nearly doubled in the last two years, even at the bargain store (We only have Sam’s, not Costco, here).
I wish I could find whole wheat pasta at that good of a price, every once in a while, it’s about $1.19. Sauce is through the roof, too. Either the price goes up, or the price goes up AN the package size decreases by 20%. I remember shopping with my dad in the 90’s, an hundred dollars would fill 2 carts. Now $200 may not even fill one cart.
A 5lb bag here is already $3.99
Nor do they say anything about the nearly 1 in 5 (might be one in 6) people on foodstamps. That’s going to let the price of food skyrocket further, until only when you are on foodstamps (or grow your own food, which is questionable in legality now) will you be able to afford food.
Amen and amen! I make it a point when I'm given my grocery receipt to tell the cashier that I thank 0bama. Most are pretty receptive.
Thank you for the link!
The watered ham really makes me angry too. I bought some recently and had to dump water from the frying pan 2 or 3 times before the slice dried out enough to brown. That’s a real racket.
I was just noticing high prices tonight, at Walmart. It’s time to start making more things like bread...I haven’t done that for ages.
I used to buy a package of shredded cheese for my tacos, earlier this year it was $1.86 a package, now it is $2.36...same package, same size, etc.
Absolutely. I have noticed that everything is coming in smaller packages. I have learned a trick (tell, if you will), and that is, when you see a package that is large, and that the smaller packages cost less than the big one, that the package size is about to change.
For example, if TP is say 5.99 for a 12 pk, and the 36 pk is $20.00, that means it’s $2.00 cheaper to by the 3-12 pks. But I have found that once they rotate the stock, the new 12 pk’s are 10-20% smaller, and now cost say $7.99. It’s that way with all foods. When there is a really good sale, stock up, because I have found it to mean that the package is about to change. The best sales of the month are typically found on the 1st and 3rd weeks (week of the 1st, and week of the 15th), and remember you can freeze just about anything!
Not just ham, either. Frozen chicken breasts and lots of other items have water added, yikes!
And canned ham is about maybe 50-60% ham. The rest is water and gelatin and other pork products.
Just read up on that too. They add some stuff to chicken so it is able to absorb more water.
The saddest sight in the world was seeing tens of thousands of cows carrying calves being sent to slaughter all over Texas this year because the drought made it impossible to feed them.
This will definitely show up in future beef prices, and more people will switch to chicken or pork, thus forcing those prices up as demand increases.
It wouldn’t be a bad idea to live somewhere where you can grow your own chickens or ducks or goats.
I had to make my own bread for about a year, and I found a bread maker to be a really useful device. I could make bread the way I wanted, and it was very convenient. I quit shopping at walmart years ago. I found their prices to be just about the highest anywhere I could find them. It didn’t used to be that way, but about 2 or three years ago, they swapped over from the lowest price to some other model. I recall reading how they were going to try and refocus back on being the lowest price a few months ago, but I still prefer to shop the sales at the local store, I’ve gotten far, far better deals. I have talked with a few other friends who have comparison shopped between stores, and they have found the same, which seems counter intuitive to me (but I keep a tight budget, so I’m sure!).
P.S. If you didn’t know, Walmart’s main business is in real estate (like McDonald’s), NOT retail. Retail is just the side venture that brings in extra money. Their retail model is to drive others out of business and then raise their prices (which is why there is nearly no customer service, for example, they simply don’t care). I don’t presume to tell people where to shop, but I learned a few years back after I shopped almost exclusively at Walmart, they stopped carrying products that I liked in favor of cheaper ones, and once the other nearby businesses were gone, the price went sky high (and the products I wasnted were still unavailable). I encourage you to do what’s best for your family, all the same, but I just wanted to share that experience.
blam, is that for the half lb (8 oz) or the 1 lb packages. Here cheese used to be found (2-3 years ago), for $1.50/lb on sale, now I have a hard time finding it for less than $3/lb, even in bulk.
When a Republican's elected President, the MSM will once again be able to see and report...
Agreed. I live in cattle raising area (there are several hundred cattle within a few hundred feet of my front door), and talking to the cattle raisers, a lot of herds had to be culled because of grain prices. One TX FReeper mentioned that many head are being sent to China to fill that demand. I expect beef prices to become nearly unobtainable one day soon.
Walmart used to be the best for produce when they first started carrying it but then Sam died and they cornered the market and then they turned, maybe not so crooked as devious. They regularly ordered more produce than they needed and then found flimsy excuses not to take it on delivery or they would take the delivery and try to pay you half of the promised price. We stopped sending them any produce.
Are you going to tell me what you’re saying that Glenn Beck was wrong about (I have seen that episode, and just watched a part of the link you sent), because I’m not sure what it is that you are saying. You just said wrong again, and posted a link to a show. Are you saying that everything he said in the show is wrong, because we do have rampant inflation, and food price increases. But if you don’t want to talk, other than post a link, that’s ok, too.
Then there’s downsizing of packages to hide price hikes. Canned tuna has gone from 7.5 oz cans to 5 oz cans with more water. Toilet paper rolls have less paper on them and the size of the cardboard is shorter making for smaller squares. Coffee containers are smaller. Cereal boxes are smaller, etc. Many items that used to be a standard pound package are now 12 or even 10 ounces.
Peanut butter and peanut products will rise in price. Corn, corn products and oil will go up. Shrimp is going up. If you haven’t been stocking your pantry or prepping, it’s almost past time to start. Remember, peanuts and cooking oil will go rancid so don’t over stock.
I think I remember that. I used to like the prices at Walmart, but I disticntly remember the change in food many years back. I realize different people have different ideas about what they want to eat, and what is best for them, but I found that Walmart didn’t employ the type of business practices I wanted from my grocer/retailer. I have never worked with them from the supplier side, but I know of people who have done that kind of business facing the practices such as “Make this for this price, or we’ll drop your whole line” and once they do “Now make it cheaper or we’ll still do it,” etc. etc. until there can be little to know quality left in the goods. I prefer to pay more and get something I really want, and like, rather than something low quality, but less expensive. But different people have differnt wants/needs.
Man, things are cheap where you live. Milk in $4 a gallon in Houston. Bore’s Head Deluxe Ham, the only ham worth eating, is now up to $9.29 a pound.
I still get pretty good bread at Target for $1.15 a loaf.
“Toilet paper rolls have less paper on them and the size of the cardboard is shorter making for smaller squares.”
I remember one company, I think Quilted Northern cut their rolls by a whole inch! they said it was only a half inch when contacted by a news source, but they measured and it was a full inch. QN then said it must be a mistake, and was just that one lot maybe, but it was ona ll the packages, they may have backtracked, but I remember people saying ‘What’s next, streamer sized strips!?”
And re: “Peanut butter and peanut products will rise in price. Corn, corn products and oil will go up.”
I don’t buy PB too often, but I usually stock up once or twice a year, so I hadn’t noticed the price jump, because I wasn’t paying attention. Once I heard that it would a few weeks ago, I started taking note, and boy it has already started. Nearly $4/lb locally here, and over $3/lb for the store brand!
kitty, pork and chicken is going up because corn is up.
JDW, you have to really keep a close eye on walmart. They’re higher than hell on a lot of items.
“Man, things are cheap where you live.”
Comparatively, I agree. I live in a rural, wage depressed area (Median income in this ares is just over $20K), and this is a big agricultural area. Food is less expensive, but when you only make $8-$9 an hour (on average), that $3.00 gallon of work represents a sizable portion of your income, but I do know many folks pay a much higher price, I saw that when I visited my parents back east and their milk was 2x the price, and cheese was 50% more. I was shocked walking through the stores, now I can see those prices here, though. ;-)
“JDW, you have to really keep a close eye on walmart. Theyre higher than hell on a lot of items.”
Agreed. I still shop at Sam’s (there’s no Costco here), because I can get some things cheaper in bulk, but I noticed about 5 years ago that Walmart’s cost was significantly higher than the local grocer, and made the switch. The only national chain I shop at is Smith’s (Kroger), when they have a really good sale, which they have once or twice a year. Then, I like to really save.
Same here. Now, we're barely above the poverty line. I've always been frugal and stocked up on sales but now I dread going to the grocery store knowing it'll rip the budget apart. The last clothes shopping was a pair of sale flip flops three years ago. We can't afford to go out anymore. Christmas presents this year are homemade so barely cost anything (but nice!). Used old savings to pay property taxes last year and will have to do so again in a few weeks. But there's nothing going into savings these days. It's scary to think about what's coming.
I take tp out of the wrapper and put it in the cabinet. It’s easy to see the sizes decrease when they’re lined up.
I’ve been stocking up on .50 canned veggies for a year or so. Not so long ago you could get veggies for 3 or 4/$1. Now, they’re .79 - .99. There are a couple of off brands (USA) that our store gets in that are still .50 but they may only get in a case or two at a time so I grab when I can. At Walmart, one off brand is already up to $1.
Have you noticed there are no longer the old annual sales? There were no tuna sales during Easter this year or last year. The past 2 years haven’t had good Thanksgiving or Christmas meal sales so I’m waiting to see what this year will bring. It used to be the turkey was free with x amount of purchases and eggs, celery, and rolls were dirt cheap. Now, you’re lucky to see celery less than $1 and rolls and eggs haven’t been on sale the last couple years. I still have a turkey in the freezer if there’s not a good sale. I usually buy two of the largest birds and have plenty of stock and chopped meat for the freezer.
They're 8 oz...I went and looked, lol.
We live in a similar area. The cheapest milk is about $3.39 or .49 a gallon and it’s going up. There’s only one HEB grocery store here or there’s a Walmart in the next town. With no competion, they can charge what they want. Their brand selection has gone down and their produce looks like seconds these days. The other day, they had some fresh green beans that were old and very wrinkled. Many shelves are empty, especially sale items with the excuse of the truck didn’t deliver it. They’ve started some shady practices of not having advertized items or if there’s a current national coupon (the local paper never has carried coupons), they will take the product off the shelf. HEB has their own store brand but now have a more expensive “gourmet” brand which they’re putting on the shelves in place of their cheaper regular store brand. Complaining to HQ hasn’t helped.
I noticed the TP size change first when I was at a friend’s and the TP had a good 2 inches of clearance on the roll holder. I thought it was just their brand at first.
You’re right about the veggies, I remember just last year there were several 3/$1 sales, but the best I have seen this year was $0.50. And the fruit cocktail is even worse, it was $0.69 about 2 years ago, and now I have to find it on sale for $1.19. (I eat more canned fruit than veggies, since I have a veggie garden). I have notices that the annual sales are down. I have not bought tuna since the incident in the gulf, but I did stock up right around that time. But I have definitely noticed that the quarterly sales (here they call them “Case Lot” sales), are almost non existent.
You are absolutely right about the holiday sales. I remember until about 2008-2009 that you could buy say $100 and get a free turkey, or if you bought a turkey, you could get all of the fixings. Then they switched to vouchers (coupons), of if you bought $25, you got a $0.50 coupon towards a turkey. Now it seems like it’s for every 50 dollars you get a $0.50 coupon. Sure it’s better than a slap in the face, but it sure seems like it’s not a good deal anymore. I have noticed the rise in celery and in eggs. Interestingly, a friend of mine was reading today about how to keep your garden good into the winter by using straw around it (he had a book about old pioneering skills and such). That may be the way to go next year. Eggs are really high too, and I seldom see them on sale, like you mentioned.
“I usually buy two of the largest birds and have plenty of stock and chopped meat for the freezer.”
I like that idea. I don’t love turkey, but I love saving money. I like to buy two, use one. And thanks for getting back on the cheese. : D
Wow, that must be a common practice. I know, I know, the old bait and switch, but I have certainly notice how they are always out of the sale item, like they only had 5 to start with, lol. Luckily there is a store here that does offer rainchecks, they are a pretty good store, but lately they have been doing things like having cheese on sale, and then after the 2nd or third day (they run sales from wed. to tue.), they put up an ad retraction. That made me really mad after about the second time, because I have to drive about 10 miles to get to that store, which ads up if I have to go to another store because the sale isn’t as good as they advertised.
I too have noticed the decline in produce quality, not so much with things that can be grown locally, but with things like avocados, citrus, cilantro, etc (I live up north). I try and buy the best of the produce, but sometimes it’s all shabby, it seems.
I just moved, and I haven’t found my bread machine yet (I still have a lot of unpacking to do).
It’s not just Walmart. There is a grocery store a lot closer, and its prices are rather high, as well. I’m going to have to make more of an effort to shop at the military stores now. I haven’t worried about food prices so much in years.
rice and lentils ping