Skip to comments.What Chance Do We Have for a Brokered Convention? (Another Sound-Off Thread)
Posted on 12/03/2011 8:39:04 AM PST by TheRobb7
In the spirit of my last posting "Now That We've Crucified Every Candidate.... (Here's Your Chance FReeper Nation)" and due to the great discussion and fostering of ideas put forth by FReeperNation, here's some other ideas to bandy about as we close in on the Hawkeye Caucai (Rush's label):
1) What do you think are the chances of NONE of the candidates getting the magic number of delegates heading in to the convention in Tampa?
2) If that indeed happens, is it a good thing? Why or why not?
3) Finally, if it DOES happen, what ticket do you think will emerge from Tampa?
I put this to you, The Best Debate Society on Planet Earth.
God Bless FReeperNation!
Col. Alan West - Pres
RicK Perry - VP
Would probably win FL & TX for sure. (67 electoral votes)
How many folks really understand what a brokered convention is and how it works - beyond the very surface assumption that it means the primary results are not conclusive?
Is it really in our best interests to render a thorough vetting process moot for this cycle and perhaps others?
Lotta folks will love the idea of this happening for one reason or another, but be careful what you wish for!!!!
It could be the only thing that saves us from a Mitt Romney nomination. Even though I would NEVER vote for Romney I am curious what others would think of a Romney/Paul ticket.
Would they win?
Could the win?
I don’t care much for either man but you and I know that when Paul does not win the nomination, those votes are lost to the GOP, they will not support anyone else. He’s high enough in the polls to warrant serious discussion as a VP candidate.
The only hope is for a brokered convention. The leading candidates Newt and Romney are simply unacceptable, the other candidates have no chance of getting the nomination. I am hoping Rush starts Operation Republican Chaos and can get his listeners to vote for Bachmann, Santorum, etc. We need to get to the convention witn nobody having more than 40% support.
If we can get to the convention, someone like Paul Ryan may very well emerge as a person acceptable to both the TeaParty and the Republican establishment.
The way the primaries are staggered but leaning toward front loaded now, I doubt we will have one. There may be big split in the delegates at first, but as time goes on, candidates will drop out from either lack of support or they lack funds, this will hand some of the bigger delegate counts to candidates near the end and even push a split over the top. Here is the primary calendar.
As you can see, in January and February, we have a few that will make it look pretty divided but as time goes on, bigger states come into play and as we know, the more time that goes on, the fewer candidates there may be to choose from. In March, those who have lasted fight for Texas, April, New York, by June, you get California in play.
Voter also tend to follow herd mentality. Early primaries people look for a leader who is actually winning, if one or two emerge, the herd follows. With our primaries being more front-loaded than in the past, the herd will find a path to take rather quickly.
In other words, the chances are slim to none.
To the contrary, it would guarantee Mitt is the nominee. Once brokering starts, it’s all about the entrenched incumbent powers that be deciding, and he’s their choice.
>> Voter also tend to follow herd mentality. Early primaries people look for a leader who is actually winning, if one or two emerge, the herd follows. >>
This is provable by history of course - but really irritates me and confuses me. This is why I never get too riled up about what “they” at the “GOP” is doing. It is the herd mentality of the average American, not Karl Rove and a few sinister plotters in some smoke filled room - who gives us our candidates. Without the stupidity collectively of the herd mentality, attempts to manipulate would be useless. I think this causes a lot of misplaced anger around here and other message boards.
No chance. The Republican establishment owns you and your vote, lock, stock and barrel, and they’re going to give you whatever it is they think is best for you. Face it. Now, back to the plantation before they get out the “you’re just helping Obama” club and use it on you!
I think sometimes people assume the ‘smokey back rooms’ control everything but frankly, they are also just part of the herd. They aren’t going to strike out on their own. They may attempt to control things early, but they don’t go against the herd because power comes in mass.
That hardly matters when they've already rigged the system to the extent that one way or another they're going to get someone who will keep the game going just as it is.
That hardly matters when they’ve already rigged the system to the extent that one way or another they’re going to get someone who will keep the game going just as it is.
The GOP nominee will be one of the candidates in the race.
Make peace with that reality.
Is there a growing belief that picking one of the present candidates is drawing dead? The latest fad is ‘a nasty debater’. Looks like another 4 years of 25 million un/underempoyed and a few more wars to bankrupt the nation.
Every four years, the romantics among us start their pipe dreams of a “brokered convention”, whereby order will come out of chaos.
Ain’t gonna happen.
“Darkhorses”, “Favorite Sons” and such have long since passed into history.
As others have already noted, the early primaries will winnow out the under-financed and the under-supported. Those who were in those camps will shift allegiance to a remaining candidate. This process will continue through the next round of primaries, further reducing the field until maybe three candidates are standing entering Super Tuesday. The final nominee will, for all intents and purposes, be decided on that day.
I would rather that the nominee be other than Romney but, if it is, I WILL VOTE FOR HIM IN NOVEMBER.
The last gasp of a dying elephant.
the Latin plural “Cauci”
spell check please.
LOL. You are exactly right. The minute Palin made it official that she wasn't running for President, some of her more fanatical supporters kicked off this brokered convention nonsense.
It's not going to happen. One of the existing candidates will be nominated through the normal primary process.