Image: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?id=CES6562000101
Posted on 12/05/2011 10:06:18 AM PST by SeekAndFind
There's a lot of debate about the future of labor in America: Will manufacturing ever come back? Will automation be a job destroyer? Will we all be freelancers working from home, shifting from gig to gig every 6 months?
It's all interesting to think about, but if you want to place one solid bet on the future of jobs in America, this chart would be a pretty simple place to start.
Regardless of where the economic cycle is, health care jobs just keep going up in a straight line.
|
Image: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?id=CES6562000101 |
The chart is even more impressive when you look at healthcare employment as a percentage of the civilian labor force.
 Image: FRED |
The fact of the matter is that with society aging, the number of people needing healthcare services (and thus healthcare workers) seems like one, rock-solid secular trend that has almost no chance of not continuing.
Every time the latest jobs data comes out, we pore through a lot of information, and we can say with certainty that there's no other category that looks like this. Every other sector is affected by cyclical trends in some way.
What's more, if the country is ever going to get a handle on surging healthcare costs, the answer will almost invariably require MORE healthcare workers (doctors, nurses, walk-in clinicians), since expanding the supply is how you get the price of anything down.
If you want a job, this seems like your bet.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
It may be worth pondering that it is a bubble about to pop. I’m not saying it is, but it’s worth some research and meditation.
I have friends and relatives in health care, crappy work if you’re not a doctor. Long hours, short pay, and lots of putting up with prima donna doctors. And that doesn’t even get into the stress of knowing that one screw up could kill somebody.
Obamacare is wrecking this curve.
The healthcare workers they are looking for now are not the high end ones (MD’s, BSN’s, MSN’s, ect), they are primarily CNA’s and RN’s.
I forgot the incredible lack of promotions. Whatever job title you get is probably the one you’ll have on retirement day. There’s not much of a pyramidal power structure, and everybody is a lifer. The person above you might retire or die once a decade or so, then you’re competing with the other 30 people.
“It may be worth pondering that it is a bubble about to pop. I’m not saying it is, but it’s worth some research and meditation.”
I will: “Healthcare is a bubble that is about to pop.”
First off, having an education in medicine is probably worthwhile in any situation, so I won’t knock that. However, the idea that medicine will continue the way it has is insane.
We no longer have health insurance, today what we have is a health subsidy. Whatever you subsidize, you get more of. As the government doles out (at the expense of taxpayers, the Chinese, and inflation), all the freebies, like medicare, medicaid, etc. Peopl go to the hospital for things as simple as a headache. Well, Socialism ALWAYS collapses. Soon, the socialism bubble in the U.S. will collapse too, and people are going to have to take care of themselves more and more, and when that happens, the healthcare bubble will collapse. also.
Like I said, an education in medicine is good, but don’t except it to be a job forever. Educators also used to be a guaranteed job, but those jobs are drying up as well.
It’s simply not possible to build a vibrant, sustainable economy on “health care” and government jobs.
Agreed. I have a sister who has an RN, and been in the field for almost 20 years now. She became the head nurse over pediatrics at a major hospital back in the 90’s. Well, the rest of the nurses went on strike for a pay raise, and under the new deal, to get the extra money (in my sister’s case, it would have been about 100K, rather than 80k), she’d have to give up her seniority. She took the 20k “Paycut” (actually just stayed the same, and wouldn’t get raises like the rest), because she’d start back at the bottom again, and she didn’t want to start the competition all over again.
It’s simply not possible to build a vibrant, sustainable economy on “health care” and government jobs.
Nope, the only vibrant economy is one that produced SOMETHING (obviously that someone else who produces something is willing to trade for). A service economy is a dying economy, plain and simple.
...Or restaurants/retail. All of the above used to exist due to a strong production side of the economy.
Not to mention that in a hospital setting, nurses tend to treat newbies like $HIT!
Absolutely! Prosperity is acheived through industry. There’s only so many times you can skim something off the top before you’re at the bottom of the barrel. Whatever is in the barrel must always be replenished. Funny money doesn’t cut it.
US
HIGHEST health care cost in the WORLD.
#28 in life expectancy.
Doesn’t sound like it is worth the money to me.
No market forces applied to it, they need to be.
—Educators also used to be a guaranteed job, but those jobs are drying up as well.—
And there is much talk about an education bubble about to pop.
Frankly, I think 2012 will sound like a popcorn popper.
Sheesh, I made more than that as a COBOL programmer.
Sheesh, I made more than that as a COBOL programmer.
Ten months of school.
I disagree about the future of health care. Just south of the border, there are very large numbers of competent and English speaking health care workers willing to provide care *for the most expensive* types of US health care needs, and at much less cost.
Likewise, the Mexican legal environment is much better suited for inexpensive provision, thus giving doctors and surgeons strong incentive to practice there, even on a commuter basis. That is, insurance costs are minimal, and malpractice is not based on reward, but punishment of an incompetent doctor.
What will likely happen is that large, high security, medical enclaves will be built just south of the border. Only authorized people from the north or south will be allowed to enter, so it might act as a sort of “duty free” zone. Mexico already has a small prototype of this, with its “Zona Rosa” of pharmacies in Tijuana. But this would be far grander in scale and scope.
The big emphasis areas will be surgery and extended care with hyper-expensive (in the US) drugs, plus long term nursing care in American designed quality housing, with a much better patient to caregiver ratio.
It also needs other housing areas for visitors and support personnel. By mutual agreement, access to and from the north entrance only will be streamlined for authorized Americans, and the same with authorized Mexicans at the south entrance only.
Keep in mind that liberals want to unionize all health care workers. So, even if there might not be room for promotions, it would work like teachers where they get increases in salary based on seniority.
Agreed. I have several friends who just graduated ( a few years ago), with degrees in education. One was able to find a job after nearly two years, the other, still has not been able to find a job in education (he does work, just in labor). Education in this area/county has seen the lay-off of several teachers this last year, but no administrators. Since all personal income taxes in this state are used to fund education, I sense a tax rise soon. The worst part about it, is that those who cost taxpayers most through subsidizing their children, also pay the least in taxes that benefit their children. I’m all for helping others, but not by the redistribution by government.
“Frankly, I think 2012 will sound like a popcorn popper.”
I agree, but it may take a while, on into 2013 and 2014 (if we have that long).
On the Galactica? LOL, sorry I don’t know what a COBOL programmer is, or does. But education length doesn’t always correlate with pay anyway, but the demand of what your getting an education in.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.