2003 is not 2011 in soooo many ways - so the idea that the current field might totally change may be right - but to use 03 (or any other cycle for that matter) is a phony comparison.
This has been a pre primary season like no other. People are paying more attention earlier than ever. Our field has already undergone like four total make overs already. And there have been many more debates watched by many more people than ever before.
So techinically, yes, there is time for anything to happen. But, to ignore that it is “later” than it normally is by December of the year prior is to ignore what has happened since May.
The biggest difference is that this year we are only three weeks out from the first votes.