Skip to comments.The fifth horseman of the apocalypse (Demographics is THE defining issue of the 21st century)
Posted on 12/24/2011 7:07:09 AM PST by SeekAndFind
Population decline is the elephant in the world's living room. As a matter of arithmetic, we know that the social life of most developed countries will break down within two generations. Two out of three Italians and three of four Japanese will be elderly dependents by 2050. If present fertility rates hold, the number of Germans will fall by 98% over the next two centuries. No pension and health care system can support such an inverted population pyramid. Nor is the problem limited to the industrial nations. Fertility is falling at even faster rates - indeed, at rates never before registered anywhere - in the Muslim world. The
world's population will fall by as much as a fifth between the middle and the end of the 21st century, by far the worst decline in human history.
The world faces a danger more terrible than the worst Green imaginings. The European environmentalist who wants to shrink the world's population to reduce carbon emissions will spend her declining years in misery, for there will not be enough Europeans alive a generation from now to pay for her pension and medical care. For the first time in world history, the birth rate of the whole developed world is well below replacement, and a significant part of it has passed the demographic point of no return.
But Islamic society is even more fragile. As Muslim fertility shrinks at a rate demographers have never seen before, it is converging on Europe's catastrophically low fertility as if in time-lapse photography. The average 30-year-old Iranian woman comes from a family of six children, but she will bear only one or two children during her lifetime. Turkey and Algeria are just behind Iran on the way down, and most of the other Muslim countries are catching up quickly.
(Excerpt) Read more at atimes.com ...
Don't go trying to put a happy face on this.
I wonder if, when Caucasians all over the world become the poor, oppressed minority, they will begin to reproduce like rabbits, and start the cycle again?
Spengler is NOT putting a happy face on it. In fact, after observing how aboriginal cultures today have higher suicide rates even among the young, he makes this observation...
Spengler’s Universal Law #2: When the nations of the world see their demise not as a distant prospect over the horizon, but as a foreseeable outcome, they perish of despair. Like the terminally ill patient cashing in his insurance money, a culture that anticipates its own extinction has a different standard of rationality than does conventional political science.
Here’s an interesting factoid — LANGUAGES are GOING EXTINCT TOO.
From the article:
Of the more than 6,000 languages now spoken on the planet, two become extinct each week, and by most estimates half will fall silent by the end of the century. 
A United Nations report claims that nine-tenths of the languages now spoken will become extinct in the next hundred years. 
Most endangered languages have a very small number of speakers. Perhaps a thousand distinct languages are spoken in Papua New Guinea, many by tribes of only a few hundred members. Several are disappearing tribal languages spoken in the Amazon rainforest, the Andes Mountains, or the Siberian taiga. Eighteen languages have only one surviving speaker. It is painful to imagine how the world must look to these individuals. They are orphaned in eternity, wiped clean of memory, their existence reduced to the exigency of the moment.
Spengler is brilliant, but he scares the daylights out of me.
Come on, We started with only two people. How can we be past the point of no return?
—a horde of the little darlings aren’t nearly so cute when they cease being necessary for agricultural hep—
It does go in cycles. What happened after the potato famine, or the black plague?
War is another incentive.
Well, in the end, it won’t matter. But, yes, it is not what I want to see happening. Blessed Assurance. Thank you God for what You gave us and please forgive us for not caring enough to hold on to it even though thousands upon thousands of brave men and women have died for Your gift. Please help us to find Your Grace once again.
Great article - except he is wrong about the Muslims. Their low productivity will not really hurt them when the population pyramid gets a little more inverted. This is because they don’t have the welfare state that the West has.
I want a President who will discuss this.
The liberals decry racist yet they use it as a weapon. Since when is Mexican or Muslim a race? The left brings about division. Fine. I am with the well educated, civilized, wealthy, well armed, and well trained division.
“This is because they dont have the welfare state that the West has.”
Actually, they do. Muslims in the US are on welfare as much as any other group.
As in the days of Noah... www.patburt.com
They use our welfare state to destroy us. They don’t have extensive welfare in their own countries.
The movie, “Children Of Men” posited a disease that destroys globally the fertility of the world. How about a movie where people globally decide to just not have children?
Not only does the Muslim world not carry the increasing weight of the welfare state, but its population is not shrinking. The "replacement rate" at which a population remains numerically stable is 2.1 live births per woman. So while the rate of growth in the Muslim world appears to be slowing, the Muslim world is still growing while the "Christian" West continues to shrink past the point of demographic return. Even if the Muslim world eventually follows the West into actual demographic decline, by that time its surging and colonizing populations will have already conquered the hollowed shell of post-Christian Europe.
Mark Steyn's America Alone: The End of the World as We Know It was written in 2006, and is already coming to life before our eyes. Thanks to our massive Hispanic immigration, the United States sustains itself right at the 2.1 replacement rate, but this immigration is necessary only because of America's suicidally-high abortion rates. America is sick but Europe is dying, and the Muslim world will pick its bones.
Great decline and suffering is coming to the world, as it has throughout history as the result of poor choices made by its fallen inhabitants. These are important matters of life and death, but fortunately our hope and ultimate salvation lies beyond this difficult but God-granted existence. Merry Christmas, because He is Risen!
You know what they say, TM: When it comes to procreation, love comes in spurts.
The Bible alludes to man becoming a much rarer commodity before the end game arrives. I see it all as part of God's Plan and all we can do is observe and choose whether or not to believe.
That's what I thought until I actually read Mark Steyn's book which explained the math of demographics in everyday language. Civilizations aren't doomed just because their birth rates dip below replacement rate, but they are most certainly doomed when their birth rates stay below replacement rate for two or three generations. By that time, there is no way for and elderly, childless population to even sustain itself, let alone breed its way out of decline. And since the human nature will not permit a power vacuum, younger populations will inevitably sweep in to plunder the wealth that can no longer be defended -- and to do with the remaining inhabitants as they will.
Today, those civilizations who LIKE children are not the good guys.
“Great decline and suffering is coming to the world, as it has throughout history as the result of poor choices made by its fallen inhabitants. These are important matters of life and death, but fortunately our hope and ultimate salvation lies beyond this difficult but God-granted existence. Merry Christmas, because He is Risen!”
I have hope in Christ and eternal life as well. But I think Christ wants the Church Militant to resist non-Godly things such as Islamism and the athiest secular state. This resistance, or fight, is best done by obeying his commands - especially the commands not to “immolate” our children and the command to not use contraception (Onan in Bible). Our weapon is the love of husband and wife properly united and open to procreation.
If there are no Christians bothering to reproduce for the next generation are we really doing God’s will?
Related: Demographic Reversal Will Finish The Welfare State http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2824517/posts
And the earth will still be overpopulated.
The decline in birthrate is a self-correcting way of bringing human population back to its natural balance in nature.
Because of overpopulation, we've had to develop technology to make more of less, but throughout we ignore man's evolved nature, which is not in accord with modern living.
This conflict of man's nature with his modern artificial environment, works to depress his urge to reproduce, hence the declining population in fully industrialized societies.
RE: Actually, they do. Muslims in the US are on welfare as much as any other group.
I think Spengler is referring to MUSLIM COUNTRIES. Those countries DON’T have the generous welfare system that the west provides.
It goes without saying that a large number of Muslims are on welfare in Western countries.
Your opinion is wrong. Your post sounds like something that would come out of a gaia-worshipping, Malthusian pagan.
I'll have to check that one out. In my more whimsical moments while watching cinematic ETs wiping out humanity, I'm thinking that they are doing it the hard way. They should just infect the earth like that and sit back and wait.
A little thought experiment - two nations side by side. One in which the people think like you and one in which the people reject Malthusian arguments. Since you like to be a man of “Reason”, which nation will dominate the other within 100 years?
“As an immigrant nation we regenerate ourselves. We bear no baggage from a tragic past.”
He has no understanding whatsoever of America. We’re not an immigrant nation, we’re a nation of citizens.
And really? No baggage from a tragic past? How about the Civil War? Battles over flags rage to this day. And what about World Wars I and II?
Let's try it this way:
The plants are telling me to put water on them instead of Brawndo.
I hate it when panic mongers use straight line statistics to predict the future. Especially with demographics.
The scoundrel and hysteric “Dr.” Paul R. Ehrlich, butterfly expert, went hog wild with this, with his book The Population Bomb, in the 1970s. And it was the precursor to the Man Made Global Warming scam. Importantly, it should be remembered that Ehrlich’s “solutions” are almost identical to the MMGW-crowds “solutions”. i.e., all power to socialists and money and resources taken away from wealthy nations.
And Ehrlich was not only wrong, but he was wrong about *everything*. Every single one of his hysterical predictions failed. And he has *not* had to pay any price for his efforts to cause worldwide deprivation and economic ruin. In fact, the MMGW-crowd welcome him with open arms as a kindred spirit.
The study of demographics is not easy, but animals and humans have demographic rules they abide by, that happen automatically and without assistance or conscious help.
Which almost guarantees the failure of straight line predictions.
Do we care if these tribal languages in New Guinea are going extinct?
You need to read Julian Simon’s works. He points out that when faced with natural resource shortages people do one of three things:
1. conserve (free market pricing is the mechanism here),
2. get better at extracting the resource (think how we have had 20 years of oil left for the past 100 years)
The Democrat mind fails to understand #3. Boats used to be built exclusively out of wood in England and people said there would be no firewood. But then human ingenuity came up with metal boats.
One planet whereon humans live in a hunter gathering economy and which does not outgrow it's natural population balance.
And another planet whereon human population growth runs amok, supported by an ever more complex technology.
Which will still be around a thousand years from now?
(And the bacteria--because simpler is stronger--will outlive both.)
The reason the universe is so silent, the reason we detect no evidence of extra terrestrial high technology, is likely because any life that develops high technology soon perishes.
So the chance of our brief high technological moment, coinciding with signals from another such society living in its brief technological window, is just about nonexistent.
Makes sense. There's nothing sexy about growing up in a rat cage, then going to work in a cubicle and then retire in an isolated fortress.
These demographics will still take time to achieve their full effect. God’s timetable is probably much shorter. Diverse and oppostional cultures are collectively manifesting a hopeless pessimism that will lead to the final conflict.
They might not right now but they will. They have been getting lots of Western money and many Muslims return to their homelands and bring with them these desires for freebies.
The one with population growth run “amok” will survive. :Lets get Darwinian - geographic diversification is critical for long-term survival of any species. Only a intelligent life that achieves the economies of scale that go with large populations can achieve the geographic diversification that goes with inhabiting other planets and/or spacecraft permanently away from earth.
This so-called balance you want on one planet dooms us to death, a death the can be prevented by preventing us from going beyond earth. This death of mankind in your way of thinking is guaranteed because the sun will expire.
We do not know the hour Christ will come so we need to be around for the long-run.
However, modern society has replaced this formula with social security schemes. We can now save and invest for our own retirement, so in this environment, children are a high cost burden, interfering with our saving (and spending). But a critical mistake has been made in this formula. We are not all saving exclusively for our own retirement. What I will get from social security is not what I put in to it, but a designated amount coming from current despositors, the young. So what we really did is create a system where we got rid of our children because we thought we didn't need them, but are still relying on someone's children to pay for our retirements. The demographic implosion will cause the old to lose their benefits. If everyone had ben saving for their own retirements and no one else's, demographic fluctuations would not matter.
We in the US will be luckier in the future, however, because we do welcome immigrants. Closed societies, like Japan and the middle east, will be hit much harder. We also should be seriously working on improving our productivity through innovation and robotics.
And if anyone thinks a demographic implosion will not affect wealth and standard of living, here is an interesting talk:
The other issue is that the rising extremist Muslim tied across more modernized Muslim nations like Tunisia, Morocco and Egypt can easily drive up the birth rates in those nations.
Plus, the goat humpers have their ancient tried and true tactic of repopulation via captured infidel women.
But they don’t depend on welfare in their native desert state. That’s why they don’t care about things like infant mort rate due to no medical treatment for women etc. The most rabid among them, who pine for the pure 7th century state of sharia, don’t really care if 9/10 of humanity dies out. A small number of muslim males can impregnate all of the surviving captive women, in their insane view of the world post 4 horsemen.
The elderly white Euros won't be manning the barricades against them. They will simply be swept away. Muslim conquerors have no use for elderly enemies. They love captured children, whom they can raise as muslims, slaves or eunuchs, depending on their whims. But they have no use for elderly captives.
We don’t care about the New Guineans, but their examples provide useful lessons for the macro example of general civilizational collapse.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.