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21% OF DEMS HAVE LEFT PARTY (A Giant Upset Is In The Making)
Dick Morris ^ | 1/6/2012 | D

Posted on 01/06/2012 7:09:23 PM PST by Signalman

According to the latest Rasmussen Poll, 21% — more than one in five — Democrats have abandoned the Party since Obama’s election as president. While most have become Independents, identification with the Republican Party has also risen not only since 2008 but also even since the GOP’s 2010 victory.

Rasmussen, who tracks voters’ party identification (self-described) every month, shows that Democratic Party identification, has dropped by eight points (or 21%) since Obama’s election in November, 2008 while Republican Party identification has risen by three points over the same period. Despite speculation in the liberal media that the Republicans in Congress have mishandled their mandate since winning the House in 2010, the Republican edge over the Democratic Party has grown from 1.3% in November of 2010 to 2.7% in December of 2011.

Changes in party identification are the most fundamental – and important – measure of political opinion in the country. They are like tectonic plates that shift beneath the surface of the political earth, sending quakes through the system. A shift of such an order of magnitude will rank high on the political Richter scale in 2012.

So dramatic a shift, totaling eleven points since Obama’s election (Dems down by 8, Republicans up by 3) means that had Obama faced McCain in the current political environment, he would have won by five rather than losing by six.

But even that doesn’t tell the story. Surveys of Independents find that they have long since jumped from the Obama ship. His job approval among Independents consistently ranks in the low 30s. He cannot expect much relief from that corner.

All these stats point to a mammoth upset in the making in the 2012 election, sweeping Republicans into the White House and delivering control of the Senate by a good margin. Already, Republicans are likely to take over Democratic seats in Virginia, Florida, Nebraska, Missouri, New Mexico, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin. They may lose in Massachusetts and will probably hold on to their seats in Arizona and Nevada despite the retirement of their incumbents there. That means a GOP dominated Senate by the margin 56-44.

If these data cause Republicans (hopefully wealthy ones) in Washington State, West Virginia, Wisconsin, New Jersey, and Minnesota to consider entering U.S. Senate races against the Democratic incumbents in those states, it could cause the GOP to get sixty votes in the Senate. The party identification data indicates that this goal is distinctly within reach if we get good candidates in a few more states.

Don’t listen to the media induced pessimism. A gigantic upset is in the making!


TOPICS: Miscellaneous
KEYWORDS: dems; feminism; morris; oneparty; republicrats; socialism
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1 posted on 01/06/2012 7:09:27 PM PST by Signalman
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To: randita; Impy; fieldmarshaldj; AuH2ORepublican; GOPsterinMA

This is great news. These voters could decide the election this year.


2 posted on 01/06/2012 7:11:27 PM PST by Clintonfatigued (Illegal aliens collect welfare checks that Americans won't collect)
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To: Signalman
That's okay, plenty of dead ones will have shown up to vote next November.

...and in alphabetical order.

3 posted on 01/06/2012 7:11:44 PM PST by paddles ("The more corrupt the state, the more it legislates." Tacitus)
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To: Signalman

No way. 21%?

Not possible.


4 posted on 01/06/2012 7:12:39 PM PST by NVDave
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To: Signalman

A repeat of 1980 works for me.


5 posted on 01/06/2012 7:13:00 PM PST by Qwackertoo (Gingrich/West 2012)
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To: Signalman

GRRRRREAT news! The Democrat Crime Syndicate should be relegated to the ash heap of history. The RINOS can join them.

live - free - republic


6 posted on 01/06/2012 7:15:07 PM PST by PGalt
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To: Signalman
All these stats point to a mammoth upset in the making in the 2012 election, sweeping Republicans into the White House and delivering control of the Senate by a good margin. Already, Republicans are likely to take over Democratic seats in Virginia, Florida, Nebraska, Missouri, New Mexico, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin. They may lose in Massachusetts and will probably hold on to their seats in Arizona and Nevada despite the retirement of their incumbents there. That means a GOP dominated Senate by the margin 56-44.

Don't forget Pennsylvania!!!

7 posted on 01/06/2012 7:15:10 PM PST by 2banana (My common ground with terrorists - they want to die for islam and we want to kill them)
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To: Qwackertoo
Don’t listen to the media induced pessimism. A gigantic upset is in the making!

Mark that down on your list of Things You Do Not Have To Tell A FReeper.
8 posted on 01/06/2012 7:16:33 PM PST by Mustang Driver
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To: Signalman

Thank you God!


9 posted on 01/06/2012 7:17:59 PM PST by Linda Frances
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To: Signalman

These people are polluting our primaries.

So no, not good.


10 posted on 01/06/2012 7:18:21 PM PST by TheZMan (http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2794639/posts)
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To: Signalman

This is why Barry and Rimshot have sent their wives out to get the veterans to “join forces” with the communists while he and Rimbshot work on getting the illegal aliens the vote.


11 posted on 01/06/2012 7:18:27 PM PST by FlingWingFlyer (Stop BIG Government Greed!!!!!)
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To: Signalman

I don’t know why - they’ve gotten everything they could ever dream of, $787bn porkulus, socialized medicine, Dodd-Frank, no drilling for oil, more czars than ever before, plus they own Gummint Motors! What more could they want?


12 posted on 01/06/2012 7:19:26 PM PST by bigbob
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To: Signalman
I'll have to remember this when looking at the weightings in the upcoming MSM polls that show Obama regaining popularity.

-PJ

13 posted on 01/06/2012 7:20:53 PM PST by Political Junkie Too (If you can vote for President, then your children can run for President.)
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To: bigbob

They want all the marbles, the whole enchilada....


14 posted on 01/06/2012 7:21:03 PM PST by wally_bert (It's sheer elegance in its simplicity! - The Middleman)
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To: Signalman

I guess these are mostly yellow dog Dimowits who were not Marxist to begin with.
Most of those, however, are dying off from old age.


15 posted on 01/06/2012 7:21:15 PM PST by AlexW
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To: NVDave
"...has dropped by eight points (or 21%)"

The DemoRATs represented about 39% of the voting electorate before the 'eight point' drop which was is 21% of the 39%. It now is speculated to be 31% of the voting electorate.

16 posted on 01/06/2012 7:21:34 PM PST by harpu ( "...it's better to be hated for who you are than loved for someone you're not!")
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To: bigbob

Hope and Change?? (Bunch of stupid libtards if you ask me)


17 posted on 01/06/2012 7:22:28 PM PST by eyedigress ((Old storm chaser from the west)?)
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To: Signalman
The Toe Sucker...sometimes swerves into the truth......

Wonder if this is one of those times.....

Lot's of time left...for the GOP to shoot themselves in the foot.

18 posted on 01/06/2012 7:22:47 PM PST by Osage Orange (HE HATE ME)
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To: Signalman

Yep. Giant upset. Obama the magnificent will defeat Mitt with 21% fewer registered dems, adding to Obie’s list of miracles in anticipation of canonization. </sarc>


19 posted on 01/06/2012 7:22:53 PM PST by newheart (When does policy become treason?)
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To: Signalman
How do we know that this isn't really a stealth Democrat version of "Operation Chaos" for the upcoming Republican primaries?

-PJ

20 posted on 01/06/2012 7:22:58 PM PST by Political Junkie Too (If you can vote for President, then your children can run for President.)
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To: 2banana

If this happens then they better get busy putting some of those dem criminals in jail. I’m sick of them getting away with things I would go to jail for. They are so corrupt because they can be.


21 posted on 01/06/2012 7:23:25 PM PST by dandiegirl
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To: dandiegirl

We won’t see this reported in the Lamestream media until the day after the November election.


22 posted on 01/06/2012 7:27:41 PM PST by aimhigh
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To: TheZMan

Ding, Ding, Ding!

We have a winner!


23 posted on 01/06/2012 7:27:58 PM PST by sarasmom
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To: Signalman

I personally believe the state of New York is in play, and that says a lot. I think he angered NYC so much, that enough will sit out or vote against him, and the rest of the state will vote GOP.

Hard to imagine, but his fundraising there hasn’t been anything for him to brag about.


24 posted on 01/06/2012 7:33:17 PM PST by castlegreyskull
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To: Signalman

Winning a 60 seat veto proof Senate majority is key to reversing all the seismic legislative damage done in the past 3 years by the Dems.


25 posted on 01/06/2012 7:39:53 PM PST by chuckee
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To: Signalman

No question, Obama really has gone off the rails and driven a lot of people out of his camp.

One danger, as noted, will be massive voter fraud.

A second danger, I’m afraid, is that the GOP has a pretty good history in recent decades of blowing opportunities like this. They would rather lose than allow a strong leader who would straighten things out to straighten THEM out in the process.


26 posted on 01/06/2012 7:40:37 PM PST by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
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To: Signalman

Good news that 21% left the Dem Party. Better news if they also left the country.


27 posted on 01/06/2012 7:43:04 PM PST by chuckee
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To: bigbob

What more could they want?


Still have money in the bank? Cash in your wallet? Change in your couch?

Yes?

They are not done yet.


28 posted on 01/06/2012 7:45:15 PM PST by cableguymn
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To: bigbob

I think the repeal of DADT will have more repercussions than anything else. It’s no apparent now, but given time it will destroy the moral of the armed forces and cause the need for a draft.


29 posted on 01/06/2012 7:47:05 PM PST by central_va ( I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: AlexW
I guess these are mostly yellow dog Dimowits who were not Marxist to begin with.
Most of those, however, are dying off from old age.

True...this isn't the yellow dogs Dim Party....even Jimmah Carter is unhappy with this clown. He's advising Hussein to " avoid a controversial subject as much as you can in the first term.”

If you've lost Jimmah....

30 posted on 01/06/2012 7:47:41 PM PST by Jane Long (Soli Deo Gloria!)
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To: Signalman

Who knows about Morris
He is always making predictions

But of these statistics are true maybe there is a chance

But the MSM is still a big worry

They ain’t gonna let their boy lose


31 posted on 01/06/2012 7:50:34 PM PST by uncbob
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To: Cicero
the GOP has a pretty good history in recent decades of blowing opportunities like this.

The GOP management will once again demonstrate they are masters of the ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

32 posted on 01/06/2012 7:53:11 PM PST by immadashell
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To: Signalman
Headline should read:

21% OF DEMS HAVE LEFT PARTY TO VOTE FOR MITT ROMNEY IN THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARIES

33 posted on 01/06/2012 7:54:12 PM PST by Tramonto (Draft Palin)
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To: Signalman

Now if we can just make sure Ron Paul does not run as an Independent (figuring he won’t get the GOP nomination)...and if the above report is true...the GOP candidate will take this election. I certainly doubt any of the Dems who have left are going to vote for Obama again.


34 posted on 01/06/2012 7:54:30 PM PST by CitizenM (Obama's legacy will be to be remembered as The architect of the decline of the USA)
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To: Signalman

I agree that a landslide is in the making. It would be a shame to waste this opportunity by electing the same old GOP Washington insiders WHO DON’T RECOGNIZE THE PROBLEMS WE FACE AS A NATION!


35 posted on 01/06/2012 7:58:14 PM PST by upsdriver (We Tea Partiers need Sarah Palin for president.)
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To: Signalman

I agree that a landslide is in the making. It would be a shame to waste this opportunity by electing the same old GOP Washington insiders WHO DON’T RECOGNIZE THE PROBLEMS WE FACE AS A NATION!


36 posted on 01/06/2012 7:58:33 PM PST by upsdriver (We Tea Partiers need Sarah Palin for president.)
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To: Clintonfatigued; All

maybe its great news...

i was waiting to post this and here goes...i live in the middle of liberalsville- 2 miles from the clinton’s....two out of every three cars had obozo bumperstickers on them 3 years ago- now its one out of every 25...

me? I have an American Flag, POW/MIA flag and Tea Party flag flying in the front of my house and anti-obama stickers on my car...

the gym i go to is uber liberal; RFK Jr, Billy Baldwin and a few others...politics is always talked about and i get into some heated exchanges- too effing bad- i despise liberals...

heard a very interesting conversation this morning which i was not part of...one guy is a former liberal who voted for obama but realizes what a complete mistake it was and what a disaster obama has been,....the other guy is a hardcore democrat who also realizes obama has been a disaster...

the conversation was about the 2012 presidential election and how it may come down to voting for the lesser of two evils...these guys DO NOT want obama re-elected but don’t see the a good GOP contender to vote for...

bottom line is- and i know i’m going to take grief from this but too bad- Chris Christie would destroy obama while no one presently in the GOP field will beat obozo...

if this keeps going the way it is this will be another situation of the GOP snatching defeat from the jaws of victory...


37 posted on 01/06/2012 8:02:08 PM PST by God luvs America (63.5million pay no federal income tax then vote demoKrat)
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To: Signalman

Did the 21% just drop their affiliation so they could register as republicans to vote in the primary for the candidate they think obama can beat in November?


38 posted on 01/06/2012 8:08:36 PM PST by GBA (Natural Born American)
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To: uncbob

Bingo.

I have been hearing a lot of talk of Hillary stepping in in some way or another. Either as VP or, if O decides to remove himself then as presiden. This is in both liberal and libertarian circles. If Hillary enters this mess, all bets are off. First so-called black president could be followed by first female.


39 posted on 01/06/2012 8:15:29 PM PST by ozaukeemom (No to Romney, no how, no way, no money, no vote)
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To: Tramonto

You are probably right.


40 posted on 01/06/2012 8:18:17 PM PST by mamelukesabre
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To: Signalman

Lots more Dems will be have to pull their weight to get more multiple voting accomplished as well registering more dead people, cartoon characters, and their pets to vote.


41 posted on 01/06/2012 8:18:38 PM PST by Jack Hydrazine (It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine!)
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To: Signalman

Even with such a tectonic shift like we saw in 1980 I am concerned that even if we have a blowout election, Obama, with all of his newly found tyrannical powers, is going to be reciting Dylan Thomas’ “Do Not Go Gentle Into That Good Night” to put it mildly.


42 posted on 01/06/2012 8:24:41 PM PST by Jack Hydrazine (It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine!)
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To: chuckee
Winning a 60 seat veto proof Senate majority is key...

You mean filibuster proof. 60 seats are needed to guarantee a cloture vote.

Republicans need 67 votes to guarantee to override a Presidential veto (along with 2/3rds of the House).

-PJ

43 posted on 01/06/2012 8:24:41 PM PST by Political Junkie Too (If you can vote for President, then your children can run for President.)
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To: Signalman

White, hetero, working, mostly men, some women, are leaving.


44 posted on 01/06/2012 8:26:33 PM PST by Secret Agent Man (I'd like to tell you, but then I'd have to kill you.)
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To: Signalman

and the RATS, take another one in the.........HA ha!!!

45 posted on 01/06/2012 8:42:09 PM PST by Chode (American Hedonist - *DTOM* -ww- NO Pity for the LAZY)
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To: Signalman
This is pipedreams. The left is winning and the govt is shoveling billions to their front groups every day.

Anybody ever hear of the "Community Reinvestment Act" that ruined this country's economy? Or the "Dodd-Frank Act" that's going to fix it?

Anybody notice that when there were talks about slashing the budget, there was not any discussion about cutting welfare or any other programs that bribe the lefty constituency? What was up on the cutting block for both parties? The military.

Anybody notice the major inroads that "gays" have made in this country since the "sexual revolution?"

Anybody notice hate crimes laws that are only applied to some races while others are prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law?

Anybody remember the war on the Boy Scouts that was waged by the "gays" and their willing accomplices on the left and in the press?

The list goes on and on.

I'm 54 years old. I don't know about the rest of you, but this isn't even close to the country my generation inherited. It's culture has been sapped and there's no putting humpty-dumpty back together again.

This wouldn't have happened if the Republican Party wasn't just the Democrat Party-lite.

46 posted on 01/06/2012 9:07:52 PM PST by HeartlandOfAmerica (Geithner: Taxes on 'Small Business' Must Rise So Government Doesn't 'Shrink')
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To: wally_bert

YES but have the republicans grown the Balls to actually govern like we want?????


47 posted on 01/06/2012 9:32:56 PM PST by Walkingfeather
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To: Political Junkie Too
Everyone needs to keep their attention up.
Dick may know statistics and polling but we need to keep our attention on everything to the finish line.
It seems way too early to call it at all, and that alone should make us nervous.
Keep the watchers alert and the powder dry.
Mostly don't get too complacent..... we can still lose this!
One of the ways it can be lost is if we split the vote or do not get out a united vote... in effect not getting out our vote.

48 posted on 01/06/2012 10:24:24 PM PST by JSteff ((((It was ALL about SCOTUS. Most forget about that and HAVE DOOMED us for a generation or more.))))
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To: chuckee
reversing all the seismic legislative damage done in the past 3 years by the Dems.

Just as important is that we need to win this election to protect a conservative balance on SCOTUS.

The dems and liberals know that if O can hold on and does take the WH he will get to appoint two maybe three justices this coming presidential term.

That is what the dems and liberals are counting on more than anything. Legislation dos not matter if one mindset will control SCOTUS for the next 30 or 40 years. Then we are doomed.


Just read my tag line.. if Obama wins it will be much worse for us for decades, maybe forever. Meaning there may be no FreeRepublic ever again.

Forget the person, vote to maintain SCOTUS. If nothing else we need to be united and get out our vote for only that reason.
49 posted on 01/06/2012 10:41:48 PM PST by JSteff ((((It was ALL about SCOTUS. Most forget about that and HAVE DOOMED us for a generation or more.))))
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To: God luvs America
I work at a University, and I have had a similar experience.

A lot of the liberals here realize Obama has been a disaster, but their hatred of the GOP runs too deep for them to back one of our declared candidates. Several of them have told me they could see themselves voting for Chris Christie though.

Christie is too liberal for my tastes, but I would prefer him infinitely more than Obama and a whole lot more than Willard Romney as well. People are clamoring for a strong leader, and Chris Christie (even with all his flaws) is that.

50 posted on 01/06/2012 10:42:14 PM PST by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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