Skip to comments.Former Microsoft bloke thinks world is done with the PC
Posted on 03/08/2012 10:15:59 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach
Ray Ozzie admits that Microsoft has been left behind
That is all I have at the moment.
Ipads are fine for those who like them.
I first got involved with computers because I wanted a word processor. If you do a lot of writing, it’s great to have a machine that enables you to make corrections and additions without having to type the whole damned thing over six or seven times.
Then I got involved in the internet.
Frankly, I think an iPad is kind of a toy. It’s biggest advantage is that you can pull it out of your pocket anywhere. But the screen is tiny and the lack of a real keyboard makes it completely unsuited to writing anything significant.
I suspect it’s mostly, “Hi, like, How R U?” Sure, you can do serious stuff, but it’s a LOT harder.
Moreover, watched cybersecurity House hearings yesterday. It is clear that smartphones, pads and the like have serious security issues. Clearly, a desktop behind a router is potentially much more secure.
For serious work and security, the desktop will be here for a looooong time. It's just that the 'business' desktop market size will be far lower in the future. The upside is that Microsoft will find desktop operating systems much less profitable to obsolete.
He’s right, the PC in most homes will go the way of the dinosaur. Tablets, and Phones and networked devices make them mostly obsolete for what MOST folks use their PC’s for.
They will remain for folks who do hard core things like softwared development and the like, but in most homes, the PC will slowly fade away, like the rotary phone.
—I can watch my favorite sports teams on the PC.
And finally the PC connected me up with like-minded people...on FR—
Yeah. I get that.
Unplug it from the internet, and now what do you do with it?
And it does not take a PC to be plugged into the internet.
—What about for programming?—
Well, there are a few programmers.
I was one from 1983 until recently. I may even be getting into some .Net stuff here soon. But unplug my PC from the network at work or the internet, and there is really not a lot I can do with it. I can work on documents and spreadsheets on airplanes and upload when I get to work, but even then we’re talking laptop.
“Youre really straying out of PC territory there and well into full-on workstation territory....
....which is a point missed by most on this thread, so dont feel bad about it.”
Baloney. The word “workstation” is a meaningless term thrown around to either sell high-end PCs or to impress people who don’t know better. Even the low end PCs of today were called workstations just a few years ago.
Fact is, without the internet, my computer has become very much like a boat anchor. It does have uses, but nothing like when connected to the web.
Without the internet, I’d not bother to buy one.
That battle has already been lost. Consoles have not only won, but won by a crushing margin. The best selling video game at the moment and all time, Modern Warfare 3 is a great example. PC and Wii sales combined make up 4% of sales. Xbox and Playstation make up the other 96%
—They want everyone to go to a cloud based model where you pay for the software monthly—
This. I heard all this talk about the cloud a while back and did some research. Not interested.
They dont care if you arent interested. A lot of software companies are trying to push this model, which means if you want software you have to sign up.
Tablets need to get a bit more powerful before that happens. But it's not far away. The Asus Transformer Prime for instance has 5 processors, a quad core CPU and a graphics accelerator. It has HDMI out so you can hook it to a big 1920x1080 monitor. You can use external keyboards and a mouse if you wish. It has two cams, a 1080p rear cam and a 720p front cam. The 10.1" screen is so bright you can read it in full direct sunlight. That's a lot of ability for just 500 dollars. If it had a 1920x1080 LCD or even better, an Iris quality display it would kill the iPad.
The Prime would be able to displace my desktop machine if I could run multiple operating systems on it. I need Linux and Windows7. An easy way to plop a new graphics processor with hundreds of fast cores down next to it is also a must.
But those things are easily possible...and when they arrive the PC will be truly dead.
And I don't think that you will see guys like me that do graphic art and HD video editing giving up our quad core PCs with 23 inch monitors anytime soon. Imagine a movie studio trying to edit a movie with an iPad.
—A lot of software companies are trying to push this model, which means if you want software you have to sign up.—
If I want their software, sure. Same’s true for cable tv, but I’ve done without TV just fine for 15 years now. ;)
I used to be an internet WWII fighter plane junkie. Did it for a few years (and pulled a few all nighters) and it ran its course. I could get by with almost no software now. My copies of Visio, Word, Excel, etc can serve me for at least another decade. I’m still using Sonar version 1 for audio recording and mixdown with wonderful results. Heck, I just stopped using Microsoft photodraw when I got the two Adobe photo and video products.
I loved photodraw for the most part.
So I may have to go to the cloud eventually, or I could, come to think of it, just go all linux and bypass the whole thing.
old software is highly vulnerable to malware
—old software is highly vulnerable to malware—
So far, so good. ‘Course, my computer has not been connected to the internet for a while. ;-)
I’ve actually had to wipe my hard drives and re-install windows on one occasion. What surprised me was how simple the whole process actually was.
As I still have my old Commodore computer hooked up in a spare room, I’m probably not quite part of the post-PC world. :-)
A sizeable market segment will still want large monitors and full-size keyboards. Whatever CPU I may use, it just won’t have MicroSnot on it.
I recently upgraded my PC. Actually, I wanted a new, bigger monitor and reliable mouse and keyboard since they were getting worn out. Computers are so cheap that I threw a PC in with my order.
I picked up one with a TB of disk space, 4 GB of RAM and a quad core AMD proc. Not because I needed the space and horsepower, but because the PC was one of the cheapest ones available.
I bought it online, and the reseller threw a blender in with it. (no joke. Seriously. Buy a computer, get a free blender. The humor writes itself)
Mrs WBill uses our new PC to check her facebook page. I'll use it to do taxes. Kids might play a game or two. That's about it.
The whole deal cost a little over 300 bucks. 6-ish years ago, I bought a server for work with the same specs - 4 procs, 4GB RAM, roughly a TB of disk space, and it was $25,000. Astonishing, really.
If you're a gamer, or maybe do video/music processing, you need a higher-end box. Otherwise, computers have far, far outstripped the needs of the average home user, at least for now. Maybe when high-speed wireless access (a couple of orders of magnitude faster than what we have now.....) is completely ubitquitous users will catch up to computers. Until then, what's the point?