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To: Signalman

He may be right on this one. If so, it’d almost be a first since his “overall prediction record” is pretty dismal, IIRC.


3 posted on 03/11/2012 1:04:21 PM PDT by carriage_hill (I'll "vote for an orange juice can", over Barry Obummer and another 4yrs, anyday!)
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To: carriage_hill
That might be because a deadlocked convention indicates that we had candidates who were not particularly strong, or that at least half the voters were dissatisfied with any one of them. In which case, forcing the primary to end early by cutting deals with other candidates doesn't change the underlying reality that the remaining candidate is still a particularly unpopular one.

One reason Mitt is incredibly weak is because such a large chunk of his popular vote comes from Mormons voting on ethnicity. That is a niche preference that not only cannot broaden and get him additional votes in the general election (because almost all Mormons are Republicans) but will actually be a turnoff to some voters. For example, Mormons are 7% of the Nevada population but were 26% of the votes in the 2008 primary and 95% voted for Mitt.

The SuperPACs alone are changing this election from just recent years. I wouldn't go back to the '70s and expect any of the same rules about elections to apply. We can have a SuperPAC attacking Obama all year before our candidate is known.

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/political-animal-a/2012_02/lds_power_in_nevada035152.php

A new poll conducted by UNLV for local Las Vegas media explains why. Although they represent only 7% of Nevada’s population, LDS members are expected to make up one-fourth of caucus-goers, with 86% saying they will vote for their co-religionist. That’s almost exactly what happened in 2008, when 26% of caucus-goers were Mormons, and 95% voted for Mitt. With that sort of hard-core base, it’s no surprise Romney leads the current poll

10 posted on 03/11/2012 1:21:40 PM PDT by JediJones (The Divided States of Obama's Declaration of Dependence: Death, Taxes and the Pursuit of Crappiness)
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