He may be right on this one. If so, it’d almost be a first since his “overall prediction record” is pretty dismal, IIRC.
One reason Mitt is incredibly weak is because such a large chunk of his popular vote comes from Mormons voting on ethnicity. That is a niche preference that not only cannot broaden and get him additional votes in the general election (because almost all Mormons are Republicans) but will actually be a turnoff to some voters. For example, Mormons are 7% of the Nevada population but were 26% of the votes in the 2008 primary and 95% voted for Mitt.
The SuperPACs alone are changing this election from just recent years. I wouldn't go back to the '70s and expect any of the same rules about elections to apply. We can have a SuperPAC attacking Obama all year before our candidate is known.
A new poll conducted by UNLV for local Las Vegas media explains why. Although they represent only 7% of Nevadas population, LDS members are expected to make up one-fourth of caucus-goers, with 86% saying they will vote for their co-religionist. Thats almost exactly what happened in 2008, when 26% of caucus-goers were Mormons, and 95% voted for Mitt. With that sort of hard-core base, its no surprise Romney leads the current poll