MR. GINGRICH, NO NEED TO GET OUT!
YOU NEED TO STAY TO MOP UP. I AGREE WITH YOU, YOU ARE THE ONLY ONE WHO CAN RESCUE US!!!
The ‘establishment’ thinks that the south does not matter - those states will go R regardless. They think that mitt can win in ‘contested’ states.
I pray that Sarah will save us all... Because what else is there to hope for, really?
“Did I do my math correctly?”
There are still 1360 delegates to be allocated in the remaining races.
This means that Romney needs to win 47.79% of the remaining delegates, Santorum needs 65.66% and Newt needs 74.48%.
Technically, all three can still win the nomination. This thing will only be decided when the winner-take-all states begin to vote in April.
there are 2286 total delegates
The Green Papers has him with 382 hard and 481 soft, with 1329 delegates yet to be awarded, and it appears there are 7 truly uncommitted delegates.
So 99 legally uncommitted delegates have committed to Romney. He needs about 1/2 the remaining delegates to get a majority of the soft count — very doable, even likely.
Now yes those unoommitteds can change allegiance if one of the other candidates makes a convincing case. It’s going to be easier to do that if Santorum is beating Romney 65-30 instead of 35-30.
CA - winner take all per CD (159) plus 10 WTA statewide.
TX - proportional (152) plus 3 party officials.
NY - winner take all per CD (58) plus 34 statewide.
50% statewide gets all 34, otherwise proportional with 20% threshold.
PA - delegates with the highest vote totals win (59).
13 seats for party insiders. All are legally uncommitted.
IL - same as PA but it’s 54 + 15.
NC - I’m guessing “accurately reflecting the division of votes in the statewide primary” means proportional - 52 plus 3 for party officials.
NJ - WTA plus 3 for party officials.
MO - complicated - delegates chosen at CD (24) and state (25) conventions - Santorum may have an advantage since he won the primary to get the ball rolling here.
IN - WTA by CD (27) plus 16 at state convention plus 3 party officials.
LA - proportional with a 25% threshold (20) plus 26 party insiders.
KY - WTA by CD (18) plus 24 proportional statewide (15% threshold) plus 3 party insiders.
WI - WTA by CD (24) plus 15 statewide WTA plus 3 officials.
It looks like a brokered convention to me too. Once that happens all bets are off but it is going to be tough to go from the convention in late August to the election in early November. Ten weeks isn’t long enough to fight Obama’s billion dollar super pac ads.
How the hell someone picked Romney as inevitable I just don’t know. Someone screwed this up big time.