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Slice the Demographics Any Way You Want, But Obama Is In Trouble
The New Republic ^ | November 30, 2011 | William Galston

Posted on 04/22/2012 6:33:41 AM PDT by lbryce

To what extent is demography destiny in politics? That’s the question that Ruy Teixeira and John Halpin’s much-discussed analysis of the 2012 presidential race puts front and center.

Teixeira and Halpin posit that the balance of two forces, “the shifting demographic balance of the American electorate, and the objective reality and voter perception of the economy in key battleground states,” will likely determine the outcome of Obama’s reelection. At that level of generality, it’s hard to disagree. But I would argue that while demography matters, it is not as significant as Teixeira and Halpin believe. Yes, it makes a difference that Obama’s winning 2008 coalition relied on growing segments of the electorate while the traditional, mostly white Republican base is fated to shrink, election after election. But other things matter at least as much—especially the impact of the past three years on the orientation and enthusiasm of the Obama coalition, for reasons not all of which are rooted in the economy. Put simply: If Obama’s margins shrink among young people, Hispanics, and other key parts of his base while disappointment depresses their turnout, the falloff in Obama’s support will swamp the modest post-2008 demographic shifts in his favor.

While Teixeira and Halpin don’t disagree with my thesis (it’s a matter of simple arithmetic, after all), they systematically underplay the evidence suggesting that it may well come to pass. To redress the imbalance, let’s look at the most recent Gallup numbers from the week of November 21 to 27. Obama’s overall approval rating stood at 43 percent, as it has for more than a month—a level inconsistent with a successful reelection campaign unless there’s a significant third party candidate on the right.

(Excerpt) Read more at freerepublic.com ...


TOPICS:
KEYWORDS: obama
He may be in trouble but he still has to lose, otherwise we lose, we've already lost. With Romney as the nominee, Americans are facing a uniquely odious political happenstance. For the first time in memory, there are no lesser of two evils. Romney is no less odious than the Communist-in-Chief, are in fact each others' Doppelganger. Romney is as imperfect, flawed a candidate as Obama.
1 posted on 04/22/2012 6:33:45 AM PDT by lbryce
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To: lbryce
Obama’s overall approval rating stood at 43 percent, as it has for more than a month—a level inconsistent with a successful reelection campaign unless there’s a significant third party candidate on the right.

Or a GOP nominee with a 34 percent approval rating.

Like Romney.

2 posted on 04/22/2012 6:36:41 AM PDT by dirtboy
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To: lbryce

He’ll be alright. Plenty of Freepers are doing the dirty work for him already in opponent research.


3 posted on 04/22/2012 6:37:22 AM PDT by chargers fan
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To: lbryce

As in 2008, Obama’s biggest strength is who the R’s put up against him, assuming Romney gets the nom.


4 posted on 04/22/2012 6:37:39 AM PDT by cuban leaf (Were doomed! Details at eleven.)
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To: chargers fan

Problem is, though I would never vote for Obama, I’m not so sure he’d be worse than Romney. Romney is much more competent and, looking at his track record, that is not a good thing.


5 posted on 04/22/2012 6:40:32 AM PDT by cuban leaf (Were doomed! Details at eleven.)
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To: lbryce
Slice the Demographics Any Way You Want, But Obama Is In Trouble

Putting a loser up against someone who is in trouble when they both tote the same dogma can make a winner out of trouble in no time at all.

6 posted on 04/22/2012 6:42:54 AM PDT by EGPWS (Trust in God, question everyone else)
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To: lbryce
We got Johnson because of Lee Harvey Oswald.
We got Carter because of Watergate.
We got Clinton the first time because of Perot.
We got Clinton the second time because of Perot and Dole.
We got Obama the first time because of McCain.
We'll get Obama the second time because of Romney.

You have to got waaaaaaay back to before I was born to find a Democrat who won an election because people actually liked him. I think you might have to go back to JFK -- but plenty of people say he stole the election from Nixon. So maybe you have to go back to Harry Truman.

People just don't like Democrats. But we still get them.

Odd, ain't it?

7 posted on 04/22/2012 6:55:52 AM PDT by ClearCase_guy (Like Emmett Till, Trayvon Martin has become simply a stick with which to beat Whites.)
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To: lbryce
“unless there’s a significant third party candidate on the right.”

Enter Ron Paul, who isn't running for reelection to Congress and would like nothing more than to destroy the party that rejected his nut-ball ideas for years.

8 posted on 04/22/2012 6:57:57 AM PDT by Beagle8U (Free Republic -- One stop shopping ....... It's the Conservative Super WalMart for news .)
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To: lbryce

Couldn’t use any off your links...circular reference.


9 posted on 04/22/2012 7:02:28 AM PDT by capt. norm (Blessed are they who can laugh at themselves for they shall never run out of material. c)
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To: chargers fan

Man do you have that right.


10 posted on 04/22/2012 7:02:39 AM PDT by Lurker (The avalanche has begun. The pebbles no longer have a vote.)
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To: lbryce

It’s a good thing for Zero that the GOP chose a gun grabbing socialist as their candidate, or else he would have been in trouble.


11 posted on 04/22/2012 7:06:40 AM PDT by vmivol00 (I won't be reconstructed.)
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To: ClearCase_guy

We got Johnson because Johnson had Kennedy hit. Oswald, the lone nut assassin, who was killed by a lone nut assassin (sure) is nothing but a fairy tale the msm has told the American people about for fifty years.

Just sayin’


12 posted on 04/22/2012 7:16:23 AM PDT by kjo (+)
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To: lbryce
He's lost the Evangelicals and the Catholics. A Democrat has never won without them. Republicans have, but not Democrats.

But he's probably hijacked the vote-counting system, so it's all moot.

13 posted on 04/22/2012 7:24:19 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (For every black person murdered by a white, thirty-nine white people are murdered by blacks.)
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To: Admin Moderator; lbryce
I apologize for my attempt at posting this article, the source of which, "The New Republic", not approved as a source for posting here at FR, was something I was unaware of, as the links to the original article having been removed.

I am aware of the list of sources not welcome here at FR. In determining whether or not a news source is one that is approved, I will first do a search to see whether the publication has a posting history, then proceed with attempts at posting it. Banned or unapproved sources as you know quite well will prompt a message stating it as being unapproved.

My search turned up no history for the New Republic, which gave me cause to believe it wouldn't be posted but the subject matter, title was too compelling not to try.

Again, my sincerest apologies, will know better for now on.

14 posted on 04/22/2012 7:24:25 AM PDT by lbryce (BHO:The Infestation of Washington, DC Ends When the Cockroach- in-Chief is Evicted in 2013)
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To: capt. norm

Please see post #14.


15 posted on 04/22/2012 7:25:40 AM PDT by lbryce (BHO:The Infestation of Washington, DC Ends When the Cockroach- in-Chief is Evicted in 2013)
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To: lbryce

Give out free marijuana and crack to the urbanites on election day and only the dead vote will show up.


16 posted on 04/22/2012 7:41:53 AM PDT by SampleMan (Feral Humans are the refuse of socialism.)
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To: lbryce

Give out free marijuana and crack to the urbanites on election day and only the dead vote will show up.


17 posted on 04/22/2012 7:42:46 AM PDT by SampleMan (Feral Humans are the refuse of socialism.)
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To: lbryce

18 posted on 04/22/2012 7:45:41 AM PDT by Brandonmark (2012: Our Hope IS Change!)
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To: ClearCase_guy
Great points, but I imagine someone on the other side could make similar assertions:

We got Nixon because of Johnson and Vietnam (in 1968)

We got Ford because of Nixon

We got Reagan because of Carter (i.e. Carter sucked)

We got Bush 1 because of Dukakis

We got Bush 2 because of Gore

Ofcourse, you could point to Nixon-Reagan 49-state landslides, but those were re-elections.

"People just don't like Democrats" may be too simplistic, and perhaps ok in an echo chamber like FR, just like I can imagine similar observations ("People just hate Republicans") at Upper East Side cocktail parties...

19 posted on 04/22/2012 7:48:11 AM PDT by nwrep
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To: cuban leaf
though I would never vote for Obama, I’m not so sure he’d be worse than Romney

If you really believe that, you're absolutely delusional.
20 posted on 04/22/2012 8:07:25 AM PDT by SpaceBar
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All contributions are for the Current Quarter Expenses.


21 posted on 04/22/2012 8:22:37 AM PDT by RedMDer (https://support.woundedwarriorproject.org/default.aspx?tsid=93)
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To: kjo

So you can put forth any sort of crazy conspiracy theory just as long as you follow it with, ‘Just sayin.’

I am forever indebted to your stunning intellect.


22 posted on 04/22/2012 8:46:14 AM PDT by Henry Hnyellar
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To: Henry Hnyellar

I wasn’t trying to be snarky...it’s just that the Warren Commission finding seems unbelievable...more so fifty years out.

LBJ was headed for hearings in the Senate beginning early in December ‘63...as the Bobby Baker scandal was being restirred by the GOP before the ‘64 elections.

Kennedy had already told people closest to him that Johnson would not be on the ticket next time. Terry Sanford of NC was the likely replacement.

I think Johnson and a few close friends nailed him. Of course you are entitled to your opinion :)


23 posted on 04/22/2012 9:23:50 AM PDT by kjo (+)
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To: Henry Hnyellar

I wasn’t trying to be snarky...it’s just that the Warren Commission finding seems unbelievable...more so fifty years out.

LBJ was headed for hearings in the Senate beginning early in December ‘63...as the Bobby Baker scandal was being restirred by the GOP before the ‘64 elections.

Kennedy had already told people closest to him that Johnson would not be on the ticket next time. Terry Sanford of NC was the likely replacement.

I think Johnson and a few close friends nailed him. Of course you are entitled to your opinion :)


24 posted on 04/22/2012 9:24:02 AM PDT by kjo (+)
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To: lbryce

25 posted on 04/22/2012 9:49:35 AM PDT by martin_fierro (< |:)~)
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To: chargers fan

I will hold my nose and vote for Mitten—He’s got to be better than old Obama—At least Ann will make a better First Lady. Give Mittens a Tea Party congress and lets see what he can do. Better than anyone the MSM has selected—I have a gut reaction he might be better than people think—Remember they thought little of Reagan too.


26 posted on 04/22/2012 10:18:41 AM PDT by Forward the Light Brigade (Into the Jaws of H*ll)
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To: lbryce

you also have to consider that his polling should go up another five points when the VP comes in play. especially if he chooses someone like Mitch Daniels or Paul Ryan. {not sure if Rubio is bluffing,maybe he is just messin with Obama and stalling so the media wont bash him for the next 6 months)


27 posted on 04/22/2012 10:34:33 AM PDT by Reality_News
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To: capt. norm

Working link...

http://www.tnr.com/article/the-vital-center/97938/obama-demographics-2012-latinos


28 posted on 04/22/2012 10:46:42 AM PDT by kanawa
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To: Forward the Light Brigade

I can hardly stand the sight of Mitt (as it was with McCain too), but will too hold my nose and vote for him. He can’t be any worse than Obama. No way. Obama is anti-America and anti-everything that made this county work then and now.

If anything, seeing media and acedemia that I detest far more than Obama go into meltdown after an epic loss will be worth 4 years of a RINO like Mitt


29 posted on 04/22/2012 10:49:40 AM PDT by EERinOK
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To: lbryce

There is only one demographic that matters. As dear old Dad always said, “Once the parasites outnumber the hosts, it’s all over.”


30 posted on 04/22/2012 10:57:23 AM PDT by Lancey Howard
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