Overconfident Alec Baldwin Boasts Obama Win is 'In the Bag!'

See Post #40

Obama, short of any sort of massive out of the blue change of events, is toast. He’s not only going to lose, he’s going to lose big.

Just look at his campaign so far. College kids that rallied around him naively 4 years ago, their younger brothers and sisters, are now graduating from college with less than half of them finding work. This administration is the first one in the modern age to wind up with a NET JOB LOSS after 4 years in office, that’s right, a NET JOB LOSS! That means fewer people will be employed on when his firt term is over than when he started the job! That’s never happened in the modern era, even BUSH with 9/11 throwing the entire economic future into chaos had more jobs the end of his first term than when he started.

The enthusiasm for this idiot is gone, the big donors that backed him last time, have learned their lesson and told him to pound salt, because even they have been harmed by this guys ineptitude, he’s trying to make up the difference hitting up individuals, and telling the folks in the Senate and Congress, get bent, no money for you.

This election is going to be a disaster for democrats, the writing is all over the wall, and if the press were honest, instead of being cheerleaders, they’d be telling you this. There is nothing in the numbers, anywhere to have any enthusiasm if you are a democrat this election cycle. They are staring at a nuclear winter.

What’s the things Obama is touting? Everything he’s touting, with the exception of health care, which honestly he’s avoiding because its so unpopular, are results of continuations of BUSH’s policies! He’s got nothing, and knows it.

He’s going to be nasty, and bitter, and ugly.. he’s going to try everything he can and be as nasty as he can in his desperate attempt to retain power, and the more people reject him, the nastier he’s going to be and get, and the more he does it, the less support he will get.

The petty little incompetent guy that he is, is going to be standing naked for all the world to see. The press won’t turn on him yet, they can’t, but even they will come to see the writing on the wall, and to maintain any sort of semblance of saving face, will begin to report the truth as the inevitable approaches. Until they they are going to try to spin it as best they can hoping they can somehow change it, but they can’t.

Don’t kid yourselves folks and don’t get depressed, at least not over an Obama victory, he’d have to overcome odds, even Clinton could not manage to pull this out of the toilet, and frankly, he’s not 1/10th the politician that Clinton was, and unlike Clinton, he doesn’t have a third player designed to play spoiler for him.

Obama won in 08 not out of the fact that he rallied disenfranchised voters, which he did to an extend, but moreso that republicans stayed home. Folks were disgusted with Bush. That ain’t going to happen this time. This guy now has a record he has to run on, and its a record of abject failure.

Don’t buy into the BS folks, its disgusting the GOP tapped Romney as the nominee, but don’t think for one minute that Obama is a shoe in.. all quantitative data shows he’s going to be tossed out on his arse.

“At this point, I think Obama’s best case scenario is 43-44% on election day.

No president in the modern age, with the exception of George Bush II, I believe have ended their re-election with a higher percentage of the vote than they got in polling at the begining of the contest. Most end up a few points LOWER.”

And that is the key point. Obama is going to get fewer votes this year than last. And for every 100 2008 voters that choose not to vote for him in 2012 about 50 will vote for the Republican. (I am assuming the other 50 are die hard Yellow Dog Democrats who would either stay home or vote for the Green Party candidate.) That means a 1.5% swing in the state percentage for every percentage point that Obama loses.

Going by that assumption, Obama gets no states that he did not win in 2008 This gives the Republicans a base of 180 electoral votes. Throw in Indiana and that raises the solid Republican total to 191.

Now start shifting the vote by a percentage point at a time. If Obama gets 1% fewer votes in 2012, that shifts all of the totals by 1.5%, and the Republicans pick up Florida, North Carolina and New Hampshire (38 electoral votes). If 2 out of 100 2008 Obama voters do not vote for The Won, this gives a 3% shift and we get Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and I believe Ohio (46 votes). That leaves the Republicans with 275 electoral votes right there.

Obama is bleeding independents. They gave him his victory in 2008 because he ran as a post-partisan and post-racial president. (Which, of course, he has not delivered.) And, despite the numbers out of Washington, the economy is not healthy.

We are not in a recession (yet), but we did not have a recovery after exiting the 2008 crash, so the unemployment rate reflects that large numbers of workers have simply left the job market. Add in gasoline-based inflation, and the misery index is still sky-high. So assuming even a minor shift in vote seems like a conservative estimate.

It could end up as columnist Don Surber predicted with a 40 state sweep for the Republicans. (Especially if we go back into recession this summer.)

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.