“North Carolina. No contest”
Party registration (5/12/12) 43% Dem, 31% Rep, 25% Independent
Race of registered voters:
Sex of registered voters:
Obama starts with 95% of the black vote or 20% of the total vote. Assuming he gets 25% of the white male vote or 13% of the total he needs at least 39% of the white female vote to win. In 2008 nationally Obama won 48% of the white female vote.
Romney will start with about 75% of the white male vote or 24.4% of total registered voters. He will need at least 62% of the white female vote to win.
The election in NC and nationally will come down to the white female vote plus ballot stuffing in urban areas.