Windows Phone market share expected to surpass Apple's iOS in 2016 (Do you believe this?)

Los Angeles Times ^ | 06/07/2012 | By Salvador Rodriguez

[SeekAndFind]

Windows Phone will swing past iOS in the smartphone market share by 2016 to become the second-most-used mobile operating system, a telecom analytics firm predicts.

The report by the International Data Corp. says Windows Phone growth will begin picking up, despite a slow start, as a result of Nokia's strength in emerging markets.

That growth should bring Windows Phone 19.2% of the market by 2016, which would place it above Apple's iOS, which IDC expects will suffer a slight drop in market share and land at 19%.

“Growth will moderate over the five-year forecast, given the large installed base Apple has accumulated, which means more of its addressable market will be on replacement cycles," the report says. "Emerging market growth is of utmost importance if iOS is to gain share.”

While a shift for the No. 2 spot is expected, IDC predicts Android will hold on to the top spot in the smartphone market. But it does believe Android's market share will peak this year. The IDC report expects Android's hold on the market to fall from 61% this year to 52.9% in 2016.

Not to be forgotten, BlackBerry OS was also included in the report, and it's market share is expected to slip by 2016, although only from 6% to 5.9%. The report said there will continue to be a market for Research in Motion's smartphone operating system.

"This is true in emerging markets, for example, where users are looking for affordable messaging devices," the report said.

In total phones, the report predicts 1.8 billion phones will be shipped this year, representing growth of about 4% -- the lowest since 2009. IDC attributes the slow growth to feature phone owners holding on to their phones due to the economy.

[SeekAndFind]

Here’s my personal opinion...

Projecting something as definitive as that four years into the future in a volatile, changeable market is often a fool’s game.

[jwalsh07]

I don’t like Apple, Google or MS but of three MS is the most acceptable. So I will switch from android to windows at some point.

[Jonty30]

When Microsoft recently had it’s big promo at the latest mobile, or whatever conference, it had a graphic hinting that Window phones are going to come in several forms.

So, it’s not impossible since the iPhone only comes in one form.

[mamelukesabre]

I don’t know anything about smart phones and do not own one. The only company I can think of that isn’t doing things I don’t approve of is RIM.

[mamelukesabre]

With Jobs gone, apple isn’t going up anymore.

[Lurkina.n.Learnin]

Absolutly, it could be some company we haven’t heard of dominating the market four years out.

[truth_seeker]

I went from Palm Treo Pro with Window Mobile, to HTC Evo 4G and skipped iPhone entirely.

The idea Windows would jump right in and be able to market themselves into a top 3 position doesn’t surprise me, in view of 1.8 billion phones to be shipped in a year.

But I read user and technical reports, and only went to the HTC when they clearly said it was tops.

A few bad reviews and millions of $$ might be wasted by Microsoft, a company with very uneven performance, despite their size.

[dayglored]

> "That growth should bring Windows Phone 19.2% of the market by 2016, which would place it above Apple's iOS, which IDC expects will suffer a slight drop in market share and land at 19%."

Really now??

3-digit precision on numbers four years in the future??

These idiots are nothing but wankers, playing with themselves and seeing how high it hits on the wall, measured in inches.

Good lord, does anyone check them four years later to see if Windows Phone, or for that matter iOS, is even still in the market??

[al_c]

I’ve used a Windows phone before. Heck no it wont surpass Apple. I hated that clunky interface and it’s lack if quality apps.

[max americana]

“I don’t like Apple, Google or MS but of three MS is the most acceptable.”

Both Apple and Droid keep tabs on you, so I hate em’ both. Not that Windows Lumia will do the same, however, I don’t follow the crowd.

One of our employees has a Virgin prepaid phone and u can buy one 1 no contract, make up a phony name and e-mail address, and pay cash when top up $ comes. Privacy-wise, it’s a God send.

[DesertSapper]

In the last year+, my immediate family has given up an iPhone and two Blackberrys for WP7 phones. Best phone choice we've made to this point.

I have zero desire to have an Android phone. However, when iPhone5 meets Nokia's WP8 in the next year or so, we'll have to reevaluate.