Posted on 06/14/2012 3:10:50 PM PDT by Signalman
Most political predictions are made by biased pollsters, pundits, or prognosticators who are either rooting for Republicans or Democrats. I am neither. I am a former Libertarian Vice Presidential nominee, and a well-known Vegas oddsmaker with one of the most accurate records of predicting political races.
Neither Obama nor Romney are my horses in the race. I believe both Republicans and Democrats have destroyed the U.S. economy and brought us to the edge of economic disaster. My vote will go to Libertarian Presidential candidate Gary Johnson in November, whom I believe has the most fiscally conservative track record of any Governor in modern U.S. political history. Without the bold spending cuts of a Gary Johnson or Ron Paul, I don’t believe it’s possible to turnaround America.
But as an oddsmaker with a pretty remarkable track record of picking political races, I play no favorites. I simply use common sense to call them as I see them. Back in late December I released my New Years Predictions. I predicted back then- before a single GOP primary had been held, with Romney trailing for months to almost every GOP competitor from Rick Perry to Herman Cain to Newt- that Romney would easily rout his competition to win the GOP nomination by a landslide. I also predicted that the presidential race between Obama and Romney would be very close until election day. But on election day, Romney will win by a landslide similar to Reagan-Carter in 1980.
Understanding history, today I am even more convinced of a resounding Romney victory. Thirty-two years ago at this moment in time, Reagan was losing by 9 points to Carter. Romney is right now running even in polls. So why do most pollsters give Obama the edge?
First, most pollsters are missing one ingredient- common sense. Here is my gut instinct: not one American who voted for McCain four years ago will switch to Obama. Not one in all the land. But many millions of people who voted for an unknown Obama four years ago are angry, disillusioned, turned off, or scared about the future. Voters know Obama now- and that is a bad harbinger.
Now to an analysis of the voting blocks that matter in U.S. politics:
*Black voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. His endorsement of gay marriage has alienated many black church-going Christians. He may get 88% of their vote instead of the 96% he got in 2008. This is not good news for Obama.
*Hispanic voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. If Romney picks Rubio as his VP running-mate the GOP may pick up an extra 10% to 15% of Hispanic voters (plus lock down Florida). This is not good news for Obama.
*Jewish voters. Obama has been weak in his support of Israel. Many Jewish voters and big donors are angry and disappointed. I predict Obama’s Jewish support drops from 78% in 2008 to the low 60’s. This is not good news for Obama.
*Youth voters. Obama’s biggest and most enthusiastic believers from 4 years ago have graduated into a job market from hell. Young people are disillusioned, frightened, and broke- a bad combination. The enthusiasm is long gone. Turnout will be much lower among young voters, as will actual voting percentages. This not good news for Obama.
*Catholic voters. Obama won a majority of Catholics in 2008. That won’t happen again. Out of desperation to please women, Obama went to war with the Catholic Church over contraception. Now he is being sued by the Catholic Church. Majority lost. This is not good news for Obama.
*Small Business owners. Because I ran for Vice President last time around, and I’m a small businessman myself, I know literally thousands of small business owners. At least 40 percent of them in my circle of friends, fans and supporters voted for Obama 4 years ago to “give someone different a chance.” I warned them that he would pursue a war on capitalism and demonize anyone who owned a business…that he’d support unions over the private sector in a big way…that he’d overwhelm the economy with spending and debt. My friends didn’t listen. Four years later, I can’t find one person in my circle of small business owner friends voting for Obama. Not one. This is not good news for Obama.
*Blue collar working class whites. Do I need to say a thing? White working class voters are about as happy with Obama as Boston Red Sox fans feel about the New York Yankees. This is not good news for Obama.
*Suburban moms. The issue isn’t contraception…it’s having a job to pay for contraception. Obama’s economy frightens these moms. They are worried about putting food on the table. They fear for their children’s future. This is not good news for Obama.
*Military Veterans. McCain won this group by 10 points. Romney is winning by 24 points. The more our military vets got to see of Obama, the more they disliked him. This is not good news for Obama.
Add it up. Is there one major group where Obama has gained since 2008? Will anyone in America wake up on election day saying “I didn’t vote for Obama four years ago. But he’s done such a fantastic job, I can’t wait to vote for him today.” Does anyone feel that a vote for Obama makes their job more secure?
Forget the polls. My gut instincts as a Vegas oddsmaker and common sense small businessman tell me this will be a historic landslide and a world-class repudiation of Obama’s radical and risky socialist agenda. It’s Reagan-Carter all over again.
But I’ll give Obama credit for one thing- he is living proof that familiarity breeds contempt.
Yea but what about the degenerate vote? Aren’t they all still “behind him”? LOL
This was posted at least two weeks ago.
Positive, but nothing new.
It will take something approaching a landslide. If it’s even near close Obama wins by fraud.
Read your rant. Thanks for proving that sense really is not very common.
If Obama loses, he will declare the election invalid, declare martial law and make himself dictator. So none of this matters.
This also shows why a true conservative would have also beaten Obama.
I would hope not, because that would likely spark off civil war, it happened in Mexico because good ‘ol Diaz rigged the election, and literally caused a rebellion and turning of part of the Mexican military against him. I worry that if Obama does do it, he really would cause a similar split, as the military and civilians in this country are really, REALLY split in belief.
If he does that, the US government will split into two factions, and civil war will break out.
Voting Libertarian would be fine -- if the Dem candidate wasn't such a Marxist!!
Title searches are unreliable. I search on a word in a title, such as “landslide”, and it comes up.
Civil war may happen anyway. I expect it may even happen before the election. All Obama needs is a flimsy excuse. You know that saying, never let a crisis go to waste? Something minor will happen, Obama and his henchmen will blow it out of proportion, and presto! Martial law.
Things are going to get ugly.
Up until a few months ago, when he finally figured out that most of America and the world at large dislike and distrust him (newsfalsh,right?!), and love to ridicule him, he was on TV often several time a day, non-stop, 24-7 "Look at meeeeee!"
Never in the history of the American presidency have we had such a needy, insecure, loathsomely full-of-crap imbecile jamming his petulant mug in our faces via television on such a nauseating daily basis. Never. Before this tragically Empty Suit In Chief, Clinton was the worst on record, but O'Bunghole makes Slick Willy look like an glossophobically reclusive hermit.
I really don't care who is elected president this time around, just so long as we send this vile scumbag and his felonious cabal of Kommie nitwits packing.
The next most offensive facet of this disastrously failed presidency—and they are legion—is this stammering, drooling imbecile's obvious belief that he's just about the smartest guy you'll ever meet. While such revolting hubris is often a hallmark of the abysmally ignorant, O'Buttwipe has elevated this conceit to a previously unheard-of pinnacle of delusion. That his toe-sucking rump-swabs among the Lamestream Misledia and his posse of enabling Hollyweird A-list human waste-bots trumpet this patent ignorance as part of their "club membership mantra" only exacerbates the already gagging stench.
The weight that will be lifted from the shoulders of this once-again great nation when The Pantload and his cadré decamp our White House will be so mammoth, it will probably affect the Earths's rotation...
...and everything will return to "Pre-O'Bungsuck" levels of normalcy again. I simply cannot wait.
Way to far from the election for this sort of thing. Plus, the guy is a Libertarian and we all know they are crazier than pot smoking loons.
Panetta is not going to let his legacy become ruined by Bambi’s ego. The Pentagon will challenge the order as being illegal and will tie it up in the Supreme Court until Obama’s cabinet invokes the 25th Amendment and forcibly removes Bambi.
Wow, what can I add? You said it all brother.
Obama win or lose, we’d all best prepare for that “animating contest”. A lot of people are going to die in the course of cleaning out the Augean Stables of corruption in which both parties wallow.
Great rant! I’ll have whatever you’re having.
Yeah, but he still has the Disneyland Characters' votes, the death row inmates' votes, the incarcarated felons votes, the dead people's votes, the illegal aliens votes, the "vote early and often" votes, the repeat union thugs' votes, the homeless and winos who are driven to the poles' votes, the (fill in the blanks) votes.
Don't that count for sumtim'?
FR was sure Clinton was going to do the same thing in 2000.
What you say would have been true 1 to 2 years ago. Right now though the Clintonistas are like sharks smelling blood in the water. They would not back Obama's move for absolute power. You can see that now as the MSM collectively starts pulling their heads out of Obama's rear end.
As for the Supreme Court, well, let's see what they do about Obamacare. If they don't do the right thing regarding this monstrosity, then you can forget about the Court standing up to Obama’s illegal dictatorship.
Clinton was too busy blinking the ladies to stage a coup.
Clark Griswold
;)
If Obama loses, he will declare the election invalid, declare martial law and make himself dictator
This is a good example of someone allowing their emotions to cloud their logic.
My vote will go to Libertarian Presidential candidate Gary Johnson
If he can get this Gary Johnson fellow polling higher than the GOP candidate among likely voters by the time I walk into the voting booth in Nov, then I'll vote for him too. At this point, the only candidate I'm committed to is the candidate that looks to have the best odds of beating Obama.
US Armed forces personnel: 600,000
Armed US citizens: 90,000,000
You do the math.....
You do the math.....
Your math is off. By your own calculation, US armed citizens: 90,600,000!
Yes, they are.
Good one. I've made that same point many times.
I don't think even Obama is stupid enough to try declaring martial law. That's a re-set button he really doesn't want to push.
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