Skip to comments.Smaller Cities Like Austin, Athens And Spokane Will Win Out In the recession
Posted on 06/25/2012 8:36:35 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
During the housing bust, two hypotheses made the rounds. The first one stated that the American attachment to homeownership is over.
The second one was homeowners are going to eschew suburbs in favor of the convenience and vitality of urban living. I dont believe either of these to be true. Yes, the homeownership rate crested at almost 70 percent in 2004, just before the housing bubble burst, and is now down to 65 percent.
But this retrenchment doesnt represent a rejection of the premise of homeownership. The current level of homeownership is now around its long-term historical average.
Frankly, homeownership may float a bit lower before this wrenching housing recession is entirely behind us, but that still doesnt mean that people will forever be disenchanted with homeownership.
Theres also talk that the Millennial generation will be less likely to buy, or less inclined to buy a home than their older cohorts.
However, theres no strong evidence that suggests they wont follow a similar life-cycle model in which they buy homes and nest once they marry and start having children. In fact, a recent survey found that 84 percent of those 18-34 years of age intend to buy homes. So, despite opinions of a flailing temperament towards homeownership, I dont think the American Dream of owning a home is going anywhere.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
With all that said, in 20 years, do I think that most folks are going to be moving into the cities as some suggest? No, I dont. My best guess is that the biggest winners in the housing market two decades from now are going to be small- to mid-sized cities, some close to larger metros and others more distant.
"Small and mid-sized cities are poised to do well over the next couple of decades."
Specifically, Im talking about communities like Austin (TX), Savannah (GA), Athens (GA), Rochester (NY), Boulder (CO), Madison (WI), Knoxville (TN), and Spokane (WA).
It all depends on a few factors.
Cut off the taxpayer dollars to a city like Ann Arbor Michigan and they’ll go into convulsions and die. The same would happen to most cities nationwide.
What about midwest cities such as Sioux Falls, Lincoln & Omaha NE?
State capitals don’t belong on the list. Government is parasitic.