Posted on 07/08/2012 3:33:41 PM PDT by djone
Understanding history, today I am even more convinced of a resounding Romney victory. 32 years ago at this moment in time, Reagan was losing by 9 points to Carter. Romney is right now running even in polls. So why do most pollsters give Obama the edge?
First, most pollsters are missing one ingredient- common sense. Here is my gut instinct. Not one American who voted for McCain 4 years ago will switch to Obama. Not one in all the land. But many millions of people who voted for an unknown Obama 4 years ago are angry, disillusioned, turned off, or scared about the future. Voters know Obama now- and that is a bad harbinger. Now to an analysis of the voting blocks that matter in U.S. politics:
*Black voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. His endorsement of gay marriage has alienated many black church-going Christians. He may get 88% of their vote instead of the 96% he got in 2008. This is not good news for Obama.
*Hispanic voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. If Romney picks Rubio as his VP running-mate the GOP may pick up an extra 10% to 15% of Hispanic voters (plus lock down Florida). This is not good news for Obama.
*Jewish voters. Obama has been weak in his support of Israel. Many Jewish voters and big donors are angry and disappointed. I predict Obama's Jewish support drops from 78% in 2008 to the low 60’s. This is not good news for Obama.
(Excerpt) Read more at townhall.com ...
*Catholic voters. Obama won a majority of Catholics in 2008. That won’t happen again. Out of desperation to please women, Obama went to war with the Catholic Church over contraception. Now he is being sued by the Catholic Church. Majority lost. This is not good news for Obama.
*Small Business owners. Because I ran for Vice President last time around, and I'm a small businessman myself, I know literally thousands of small business owners. At least 40% of them in my circle of friends, fans and supporters voted for Obama 4 years ago to “give someone different a chance.” I warned them that he would pursue a war on capitalism and demonize anyone who owned a business...that he’d support unions over the private sector in a big way...that he'd overwhelm the economy with spending and debt. My friends didn’t listen. Four years later, I can't find one person in my circle of small business owner friends voting for Obama. Not one. This is not good news for Obama.
*Blue collar working class whites. Do I need to say a thing? White working class voters are about as happy with Obama as Boston Red Sox fans feel about the New York Yankees. This is not good news for Obama.
*Suburban moms. The issue isn’t contraception…it’s having a job to pay for contraception. Obama’s economy frightens these moms. They are worried about putting food on the table. They fear for their children’s future. This is not good news for Obama.
*Military Veterans. McCain won this group by 10 points. Romney is winning by 24 points. The more our military vets got to see of Obama, the more they disliked him. This is not good news for Obama.
Add it up. Is there one major group where Obama has gained since 2008? Will anyone in America wake up on election day saying “I didn’t vote for Obama 4 years ago. But he’s done such a fantastic job, I can’t wait to vote for him today.” Does anyone feel that a vote for Obama makes their job more secure?
Forget the polls. My gut instincts as a Vegas oddsmaker and common sense small businessman tell me this will be a historic landslide and a world-class repudiation of Obama’s radical and risky socialist agenda. It's Reagan-Carter all over again.
Would be Reagan Carter over again, if we actually had a candidate that would fight back against Obama and espouse Conservatism instead of moderation.
“Why Obama Will Lose”
Dream on:
Obama Campaign Gears Up For Massive Voter Fraud
http://www.westernjournalism.com/obama-campaign-gears-up-for-massive-voter-fraud/
The first two replies cover my main concerns.
Obama is more ruthless than the writer thinks.
Romney is more squishy than the writer thinks.
These two factors may spell disaster.
Give this man a second term and he'll TAKE a third. I can hear his campaign speech four years from today when he runs for his third term...
I can hear it now:
"The republicans make no secret about it," Obama would say running for his third term. "They want to go back to the day when a two hundred fifty year old out-of date piece of paper written by a bunch of slave-owners is consulted before anything in america can move forward."
"Their philosophy is simple: if it's not on the paper then you are on your own. If you're a Latino who just happens to be on the wrong side of the border without documentation, tough luck. You don't get to vote" Obama would say. "You don't have health care, you're on your own and if you're living in Europe, Africa or South America where your economy is directly influenced by what goes on here in the united states. Too Bad. They'll tell you that you have no say who leads this nation. They'll just tell you there in Germany or Greece that if it's not in their outdated manual, you have no right to vote!"
>> Not one American who voted for McCain 4 years ago will switch to Obama. Not one in all the land. <<
Browse Free Republic — way more than one. And yes, many are match challenged.
Barack Hussein will win.
Other than Teachers and Government workers, I don’t see anyone as better off with Odinga’s cousin.
Textbook example of a missed opportunity. The best we can hope for is a Conservative running mate.
Romney is no Reagan, and this isn’t 1980. And if this author thinks Hussein will only take 88% of the black vote, I want some of what he’s smoking.
Those who have no intentions of working at all.
Between the 3 groups shown that already covers over 50% of the popular vote.
Assuming the new poor are happy on government assistance, assuming nobody on assistance is a retiree that votes GOP, etc.
I've yet to see one FReeper indicate they're voting for Obungler Not one. You must be saying if one doesn't vote for Romney, one is voting for Obungler.
Do I have that correct?
FDR was supposed to lose resoundingly to Alf Landon in 1936, too. After all, the polling data taken from telephone interviews, was overwhelmingly in favor of the GOP candidate, and was probably a factor in the Landon Campaign working less assiduously than they might have.
The huge flaw in that polling? The large majority of Americans then did not have access to a home phone, and were never polled as a result. So a large underground of anti-GOP sentiment went unreported.
Perception is everything. Reality doesn’t even come a close second.
>>You must be saying if one doesn’t vote for Romney, one is voting for Obungler.
Do I have that correct?<<
Yes. Arithmetic is funny that way. Elections are a zero-sum game.
1. The Devil doesn’t lose.
2. In order for him to even have a chance at losing, he would first need to have an opponent, which he does not have.
McPain himself might vote for Obama if he didn’t in 2008.
Gotcha. Thanks.
They can only cheat if it is close, this won’t be.
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