Posted on 07/16/2012 9:10:03 PM PDT by ak267
Senator Inhofe (OK) was on the Senate floor today to give a status update on the opposition to the Law Of the Sea Treaty (LOST). He now has 35 senators who will vote "no" if the treaty comes to a floor vote. This is enough votes to stop the treaty from passing.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mPS-VsEUZ08&feature=player_embedded
The video is 12:46 long and has some interesting information about the treaty and why senators are objecting to it.
(Excerpt) Read more at youtube.com ...
* He's voting "no" if it's brought up this year but you take what you can get. Inhofe hinted today that several more "no" votes will occur if the treaty is taken for a floor vote.
I wonder if this monster will even get 60 votes for cloture.
Kerry knows that this is "make or break" for LOST for the foreseeable future. If the GOP gains control of the Senate, and has a batch of new GOP conservatives (Fischer, Cruz, Mourdock, etc.), then this treaty might not get out of committee in 2013 (or for many, many years).
If the whip count isn't there, I can guess that those who support this treaty might either switch their vote (after making a lame excuse) or simply not show up. If you hear the quorum call with several Democrats not on the list, then you know it's truly DOA.
Will Kerry try to force a floor vote? At this rate he might not even get cloture and risks getting egg on his face. I doubt his followers will be that fanatical to go down with the ship...especially those who face reelection in 2014.
Until the vote, get your senators on-the-record on LOST. Even the ones who the press believes are supporters.
GOP: Enzi (WY) Graham (SC) Snowe (ME) Collins (ME) Corker (TN) McCain (AZ) Murkowski (AK) Cochran (MS) Brown (MA) Kirk (IL) Hutchinson (TX)
Lugar co-sponsored the bill...forget him.....good riddance.
DNC: All Democratic supporters are believed to be supporting the treaty.
Even if he loses, Kerry will not quit. He and his globalist buddies will go back to the drawing board to make a few cosmetic changes and try to resell LOST as something new and improved (back home we call that "polishing a turd").
Thank you, Sen. Inhofe. He is a bulldog who has helped block a lot of harmful legislation. Unfortunately, he is 78. We need more like him.
Lamar! must be thinking of running for another term in 2014....
We need to replace each and every “replublican” senator that is not a solid unequivocal NO. I am not at all pleased that we barely squeaked enough republicans (1/3) when there is almost 1/2 available.
They only need 2/3 of Senators present, not 2/3 of the full Senate to pass it.
Good. Pad those ‘NO’ votes against LOST in case of wobbly and coerced senators.
I hope they stick to this.
Interesting comments from Inhofe. It’s hard to understand why any Republican would support the treaty. You’d think the fact that it gives the UN the power to tax Americans would be a showstopper.
Four questions:
1. Why didn’t Senator Kerry push for LOST when the Democrats had 60 votes (Jan 2009 to Jan 2010...before Scott Brown) or in the 2010 lame duck session when they had 59 votes? Kerry would of needed seven/eight GOP crossover votes. Knowing there were several GOP Senators who are in favor of LOST (McCain, Snowe, Collins, Lugar, and Murkowski), he would of needed, in theory, two/three more GOP crossover votes.
Answer: The 2010 elections were a major shock to the political system not to mention the electoral ramifications of 2012. In 2009/2010, the GOP was in a purely “defensive mode” with minority whips enforcing strict voting discipline. Also, cap-n-trade was a political P/R disaster for the Democrats. After a heated Congressional vote, the subject was too hot to handle and was tabled by the Senate in 2009.
In Kerry’s mind, it’s easier to get 67 votes in the Senate via a UN treaty than to restart another cap-n-trade legislative fight. Simply put, cap-n-trade is a losing issue.
2. Why is Kerry pushing for a floor vote now? Unlike 2010, he now needs a daunting 14 GOP crossover votes (in gambling terms, “run the table with longer odds”).
Answer: It’s make or break for this Treaty. After 2012, the Senate makeup will most likely change to GOP control which means Republican majorities in key Committees, low chance of cloture and virtually no chance of passing a floor vote.
If the GOP wins POTUS, Senate and keeps the House, there will undoubtedly be a push for “drill baby drill” and the UN treaty would crush such opportunities.
3. If the LOST treaty appears to be DOA, which Democratic Senator(s) are most likely to skip the vote or switch to a “no” vote.
IMHO: Senator Manchin of WV
4. Will Kerry (and his coalition), seeing what the whip count is, and seeing the prospects of more Republican “no” votes, withdraw the treaty from a floor vote?
Answer: See the answer from question #2. However, if enough pro LOST Senators get antsy, even Kerry won’t be able to hold his coalition together. No politician (except those who are in the safest districts, retiring or totally fanatical to the cause) wants to have egg on his/her face or be left twisting in the wind.
They only need 2/3 of Senators present, not 2/3 of the full Senate to pass it.
Correct, but if you have at least 34 dedicated “no” votes who show up and vote “no”...the treaty fails...case closed!
Currently, the GOP has 35 dedicated senators who have pledged to show up and vote “no”. Because of this, the treaty can’t pass no matter what the number of senators in attendance (if quorum is made).
(1) Quorum is 51 senators
(2) Currently, the GOP has 35 dedicated “no” votes (According to Senator Inhofe more GOP senators...not on the current 35 name list...will also vote “no” if this treaty comes to a floor vote)
(3) 2/3 of attending senators (if quorum is made) are needed to pass a treaty.
Lets say you have 90 Senators who show up. You will then need 60 votes to pass the treaty. If we have 35 committed “no” votes who show up and vote “no” the best the Democrats will get is 55 votes. 55 is not 2/3 of 90....5 votes short
Lets say you have 75 senators who show up. You will then need 50 votes to pass the treaty. If you have 35 committed “no” votes who show up and vote “no”, the best the Democrats will get is 40 votes. 40 is not 2/3 of 75.....10 votes short
Lets say you have 60 senators who show up. You will then need 40 votes to pass the treaty. If you have 35 committed “no” votes who show up and vote “no”, the best the Democrats will have is 25 votes. 25 is not 2/3 of 40.....15 votes short
Moral of the story: The 35 dedicated “no” votes will have to show up, quorum is declared, they vote “no”, and it’s over.
If the Democrats table the bill, it’s essentially over until 2013 but the odds will only get worse as the GOP is projected to take the Senate with a new batch of conservative Freshman.
If not enough people show up for quorum (most likely Democrats), no vote will be taken. Egg is on the Democrat’s faces and unless they try trickery (and the GOP will eye them like a hawk for shenanigans) it’s over until next year (see above paragraph for future LOST prospects). It also means the Democrats realize that LOST is a lost cause and don’t want to go on the record (those supporting LOST, and running for reelection in 2014, don’t want this embarrassment to linger). Quite frankly, if enough Democrats decide to be a no-show they’ll call off the vote rather than risk the embarrassment.
Quite frankly, on the day of the vote, if you see Democratic senators AWOL on the quorum call (but enough for quorum call), you’ll know that LOST is DOA.
Simple as that.
Inhofe is a good man.
I liked him when he was mayor.
Of course he is.
He owns and operates an RV-8.
Have you ever known any bad?
:)
Truly good to see someone who is more interested in doing what is truly right then what the media says right.
“Lamar! must be thinking of running for another term in 2014....”
Exactly. That is the only reason that patrician internationalist would oppose LOST. Now, if the vote were to take place two weeks after he won reelection . . . .
Hmmm.....
That looks like a good bug vehicle. It would get me to just about all my destinations and would be fun just to fly down the coast to Santa Barbara or even LA.
Thanks so much for the update ping! Inhofe isnt perfect, but he’s is darn near it in a lot of respects!
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