Skip to comments.Election 2012: State of the Race (Romney gaining, locks up Missouri)
Posted on 07/30/2012 7:21:09 PM PDT by Signalman
Each candidate saw three states change in his favor in the latest Electoral College map, with 2.3% movement in Barack Obama's direction and 5.3% in Mitt Romney's direction. Romney gained ten "safe" EC votes as Missouri shifted from "toss-up" to "safe Romney" status, bringing his number to 111, while Obama's total fell fifteen points to 179 with New Mexico and Minnesota moving from "safe Obama" to "lean Obama." This is the lowest number of "safe" EC votes for Obama and the highest number for Romney since this map was first released in April. There are nine states (101 EC votes) that "lean Obama" as Colorado, Michigan, and Ohio moved to "lean Obama" status, five states (71 EC votes) that "lean Romney," and six states (74 EC votes) that are "toss-ups." However, it is important to remember that there are several reliable Republican states - South Carolina, Texas, South Dakota, Kentucky, and Tennessee - still labeled "toss-up" or "lean" due to lack of polling. If these states are included in Romney's total, which they inevitably will be, he actually beats Obama in the number of "safe" EC votes, 180 to 179.
As goes MO, so goes the nation.
South Carolina a toss up???
Texas is a “leaner”?
Who is Rove polling?
actually i should’ve read this first prior to my comment about SC: “South Carolina, Texas, South Dakota, Kentucky, and Tennessee - still labeled “toss-up” or “lean” due to lack of polling. “
Too cautious and relying on junk polling in the mix. There’s NO WAY North AND South Carolina are tossups.
Rove’s abetting the MSM in trying to demoralize people from bothering to vote against Obama.
Now I’m “leaning” towards tuning out Rove’s BS polls in the future.
this devious scammer is taking push polls from obama media outlets and making predictions from them ?
has this clown every heard of the “ garbage in means garbage out “.
have you noticed all these obama media operatives like the
former Daily Koz pollster Nate Silver are using
the averages of phony state push polling listed in that rcp to make predictions favoring the soros puppet now too ?
the real internals must be real bad for their messiah to be pushing averages of old push polling.
TN went for Huckabee in 2008 and then McCain
Sanctorum in 2012
Rove is an idiot. He’s propping up the junk state pollsters (with bogus samples) by publishing this crap.
Every swing state (other than NC), has Obama winning. Obama is even winning South Carolina.
Yet Romney’s up nationally in both Gallup and Rasmussen.
“As goes MO, so goes the nation.”
This “state of the race” gives reasons for concern — particularly in the light that the numbers are coming from Rove’s site.
Add up the “solid” Obama states (179 electoral votes) and the “lean Obama” states (101 electoral votes), and you get 280 — fully 10 more than needed to win.
Most troubling is Ohio, where Obama continues to hold a modest five percentage point lead. Obama may be able to win without Ohio, but without Ohio, Romney hasn’t a chance.
Also troubling is that Sherrod Brown leads the Republican candidate for the Senate. To me, this indicates that Obama’s lead is “more than personal”, and indicates a general “trend towards the democrats” in that state for this election cycle.
Romney has a chance, but he can’t win without some real movement toward our side in the battleground states.
I’m hoping to see that movement soon. But right now, I just don’t see that much.
Sorry for the pessimism, but that’s how I see it.
Obama is not up 5 in Ohio, and he’s well below 50 %. Obama would probably need to pour almost all his resources in Ohio to win and that is still not likely. In the senate, Mandel is still a relative unknown compared to a sitting senator. We’ll see how that one shapes up, but it brown is something like 44%. Not good for an incumbent.
Worthless map. Obama will be lucky to be within 15pts in TN on election day. These state polls are not reliable at this point. Sample sizes low, not LV, not current, etc.
I’m not so sure that Ohio is “leaning” toward obama. Everyone I talk to is fed up with his commie tactics here in Ohio. He kicked off his campaign in Columbus to a half-empty stadium.
That tells me all I need to know. However, most idiots in this state are protesting our governor and that could be a factor.
I’m ashamed of the stupidity of my fellow Ohioans.
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