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Romney Has Big Lead In My Poll
Dick Morris ^ | 8/27/2012 | Dick Morris

Posted on 08/27/2012 7:15:59 PM PDT by Signalman

With all the conflicting polls and survey samples using registered — as opposed to likely — voters, I decided to conduct my own poll using the same methodologies I used so successfully for Clinton.

On Thursday, August 23rd, I conducted a national survey of 500 likely voters through live telephone interviews. The poll finds Romney ahead of Obama by 50-43! — far, far different from the published polls.

(The sample was 33% Democrat, 31% Republican, 11% black, and 8% Latino).

Apart from the head-to-head vote question, my survey tracks with the others on most of its internals.

Obama’s personal favorability is 47-50 while Romney’s is 48-48. The president’s job approval is at 46%.

Asked who would do the best job of:

Improving the economy = O-39 / R-49

Creating jobs = O-38 / R-50

Strengthening Medicare = O-44 / R-42

While the Medicare issue is important, it is not the major factor. Asked which is more important, “protecting and strengthening Medicare or improving the economy and creating jobs?” The economy wins by 67-18.

Comparing Medicare plans without explaining them, voters break even with 41% favoring Obama’s and 42% backing Romney’s. Asked which scares them the most, Obama’s scared 46% and Romney’s scared 44%.

But Vice Presidential candidate Paul Ryan has scored a bull’s eye by his comparison of the two Medicare plans and the following answers indicate:

Whose plan do you agree with more? Obama who would save $716 in Medicare spending and use the money to cover the uninsured or Romney who would make the same savings but use the funds to extend the life of the Medicare trust fund?

Obama’s 38% / Romney’s 53%

And the President continues to draw big negatives over his plans to intervene in medical decision making:

President Obama’s health care law sets up a Board to issue guidelines and instructions to doctors and hospitals on what procedures, medications, or treatment to use for each illness. Do you agree or disagree with this aspect of Obama’s legislation?

Agree: 33% / Disagree: 61%

After argumentation, disagreement with Obama’s Medicare cuts becomes even sharper:

Supporters of this provision say that it will allow us to save funds in Medicare without cutting care. They say that the Board can stop unnecessary tests or overly costly treatments that do not help the patients. But opponents say that it will lead to rationing of Medicare treatment. They say that the Board would ban the most effective medicines to treat cancer, for example, because they are too expensive and might stop old people from getting hip replacements or heart bypasses. In view of these arguments, do you agree or disagree with this aspect of Obama’s legislation?

Agree: 30% / Disagree: 57%

Voters agree by 56-20 that “Romney and Ryan would not change Medicare for current beneficiaries or for people who are now over 55.” And, by 25-60, they reject the statement that “Romney and Ryan would end Medicare and leave the elderly without a good alternative.”

By 48-33, voters agree that “President Obama has not proposed any real long term fix for Medicare” although by 63-18 they agree that “In a few years, Medicare will exhaust its trust fund and will go bankrupt unless we enact changes and reforms.”

But Romney still has some selling to do. Only 38% agreed and 31% disagreed that “Romney will always allow elderly to stay in traditional Medicare. He will just offer a voucher system that will have more attractive alternatives.”

In evaluating the health care and Medicare issue, voters feel that high medical malpractice costs play a key role in driving up costs. By 63-20, they agree that “the abuse of medical malpractice law suits is a big reason medical costs are so high.” By 57-37, they support Romney’s proposals to “curb medical malpractice litigation” agreeing that it “will save billions and extend the life of Medicare.”

Tomorrow, I’ll discuss the survey’s findings on the economy, Obama’s possible second term plans, Bain Capital, Romney’s taxes, the negative campaigning on both sides.


TOPICS: Miscellaneous
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; lead; morris; poll

1 posted on 08/27/2012 7:16:12 PM PDT by Signalman
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To: Signalman
Too bad it is the toesucker and not someone with a credible reputation.
2 posted on 08/27/2012 7:20:20 PM PDT by Patrick1 (" Let's all pray Kim Kardashian's divorce won't have an impact on her craft.")
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To: Patrick1

Gratuitous insults. That’s really a great way of elevating the conversation.


3 posted on 08/27/2012 7:21:23 PM PDT by Signalman
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To: Signalman

Say what you will, he’s a good pollster.


4 posted on 08/27/2012 7:25:56 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

No he isn’t.


5 posted on 08/27/2012 7:28:33 PM PDT by Patrick1 (" Let's all pray Kim Kardashian's divorce won't have an impact on her craft.")
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To: Signalman

Hope what Morris is saying is true.

He is the only one out there saying right now though, which makes me skeptical.

It seems like his new business model is to tell conservatives what they want to hear. If he does wind up being correct, however, then he will have salvaged much of his damaged reputation.


6 posted on 08/27/2012 7:28:49 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: Signalman

If Morris is right I will buy him a steak dinner. God I hope he’s right I just don’t want to see Obama lose I want to see him lose BADLY. I want this election to be so depressing for the Commie lovers that they crawl back underneath the rocks where they came from for another 100 years


7 posted on 08/27/2012 7:40:26 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: Patrick1

Yeah, that’s why President Bill Clinton, Fernando de la Rua for President of Argentina (1999), Jorge Batlle for President of Uruguay (1999), Vicente Fox for President of Mexico (2000), and Raphael Trotman for President of Guyana (2006), the United Kingdom Independence Party, the successful Yushchenko Presidential campaign in the Ukraine, the League of American Voters (anti-ObamaCare group) and several Republican campaigns have paid him tons of money.


8 posted on 08/27/2012 7:41:11 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: Patrick1

Two terms of Bill Clinton and ‘winning’ the impeachment battle public opinion battles tells us otherwise.


9 posted on 08/27/2012 7:43:26 PM PDT by ilgipper
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To: Patrick1

I think that is Morris’ speciality, polling..


10 posted on 08/27/2012 7:45:31 PM PDT by scbison
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To: comebacknewt

What I like about Morris’s poll is the sample breakout, with the Dims only enjoying a +2 advantage, and a fairly accurate representation of the black vote. I think Morris did this to confirm his own suspicions, and show the inherent bias/inaccuracy of the MSM polls. Given Obama a +9 in the Democratic sample, and he’s tied with or slightly ahead of Romney. Use a model that’s closer to 2010 than 2008, and Romney has a significant lead.

I wonder if “Obi Wan” will be checking in at NRO this cycle? Of all the “insider” sources, he seems to be the most credible, with access to campaign polls/data that others don’t seem to have. It will be interesting to see how he reads the tea leaves.


11 posted on 08/27/2012 7:49:47 PM PDT by ExNewsExSpook (uoted)
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To: Patrick1
Just because he may be morally suspect from an incident that occurred in 1996 - that is 16 years ago if you are from Rio Linda, does not mean he is not credible.

I truly hope you have people in your life that refuses to forget and continually remind you of errors you have made in your life. People that won't forgive and hold you up to ridicule - may that be so.

12 posted on 08/27/2012 7:53:39 PM PDT by Dave W
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To: scbison
So you like the WaPo polls better?
How about the Quinippiac poll?
Like Zocby?
CCN poll?
At least Morris tells you why he believes something is what he believes. I like his daily videos, good three minutes.
13 posted on 08/27/2012 7:54:54 PM PDT by Kozy (Calling Al Gore)
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To: Kozy

Ask Trent Lott and Bill Clinton if Dick Morris can Poll?


14 posted on 08/27/2012 7:58:39 PM PDT by scooby321 (AMS)
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To: Patrick1

Say what you want about Morris’s predictions, but the man knows polls inside and out and always had Clinton riding public opinion when Clinton listened to him. I think he’s right-—maybe just a point off, but pretty much on target.


15 posted on 08/27/2012 8:24:26 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Signalman

He is not pollng pro-life, pro traditional family, evangelical Christian, conservatives. I would like to see if they do that breakdown. I think they are assuming (romney said all the base will vote for him) he will get all the base. They should not expect or take for granted their votes.


16 posted on 08/27/2012 8:27:12 PM PDT by Linda Frances (Woe to those who call evil good and good evil, who put darkness for light and light for darkness)
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To: Patrick1

The real issue, though, is that the presidential election isn’t a national referendum. It is 50 state referendums. Romney has to win enough states to amass 270 electoral votes and all these national samples don’t really help explain where the electoral map is. I think it is entirely possible for Romney to win the national vote and still lose the electoral vote.


17 posted on 08/27/2012 8:35:52 PM PDT by OrangeHoof (Our economy won't heal until one particular black man is unemployed.)
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To: Patrick1

He was an accurate pollster for Clinton and did a good job of predicting to out come of the 2010 midterms-— better than a lot of other so called pollsters out there


18 posted on 08/27/2012 8:49:10 PM PDT by Nifster
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To: Patrick1

oh and Frank Luntz’s focus groups have shown the same thing


19 posted on 08/27/2012 8:50:03 PM PDT by Nifster
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To: Patrick1

Dick Morris was saying McCain would still win in 2008, after McCain lost Ohio on Election Night.

I swear the guy eats nothing but baby unicorn meat, pees nothing but rainbow dewdrops, and exhales little fogs of rose-colored glitter


20 posted on 08/27/2012 8:52:54 PM PDT by Cruising For Freedom
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To: Dave W
does not mean he is not credible.

I don't want to whip out the Hillary vs. Lazio quotes.

The man has a track record worse than a meteorologist.

21 posted on 08/27/2012 8:53:50 PM PDT by Dan Nunn (Support the NRA!)
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To: Sarah Barracuda
I too want to see obama lose and lose by a HUGE margin. But I kind of like the idea of the polls leaning to his side so that when he does lose he will be totally shocked and have a public breakdown for the whole world to see.

He may be starting that breakdown now because you know the dems probably take polls for themselves and don't believe the junk the media throws out there.

22 posted on 08/27/2012 8:58:23 PM PDT by Ditter
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To: Signalman
Too bad it is the toesucker and not someone with a credible reputation.


23 posted on 08/27/2012 9:07:36 PM PDT by Cobra64 (Common sense isn't common anymore.)
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To: Sarah Barracuda
I just don’t want to see Obama lose I want to see him lose BADLY.

Amen!

24 posted on 08/27/2012 9:36:01 PM PDT by SuziQ
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To: Cruising For Freedom

I think McCain would have won if the economy hadn’t crashed in what one would say was one hell of an October Surprise.


25 posted on 08/27/2012 10:45:50 PM PDT by jonrick46 (Countdown to 11-06-2012)
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To: Patrick1

When I heard, 16 years ago, that Morris liked to have his toes sucked, I thought it was quite adventurous. So, that night, I got out the jar of strawberry jam and had my wife suck the jam off my toes. I, of course, spread jam on her toes to return the favor. So, I have nothing against toe sucking. I do have something against adulterers and those who pay for prostitutes; even if they are paying just to have toes sucked. I hope Dick Morris has repented of his whoring days.

I had to share that with you because life has so many simple pleasures in the bonds of marriage.


26 posted on 08/27/2012 11:08:34 PM PDT by jonrick46 (Countdown to 11-06-2012)
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