Sci-Fi writers of the past predict life in 2012

Gizmag ^ | August 5, 2012 | David Szondy

[EveningStar]

As part of the L, Ron Hubbard Writers of the Future award in 1987, a group of science fiction luminaries put together a text “time capsule” of their predictions about life in the far off year of 2012. Including such names as Orson Scott Card, Robert Silverberg, Jack Williamson, Algis Budrys and Frederik Pohl, it gives us an interesting glimpse into how those living in the age before smartphones, tablets, Wi-Fi and on-demand streaming episodes of Community thought the future might turn out.

[EveningStar]

ping

[GreyFriar]

I read this article a couple of weeks ago. SPOILER WARNING: All of them averaged 98% misses.

[MNDude]

Wow, those are all waaay off. How about “Bases on the moon, an expedition to Mars…all done. But the big news will be some problematical evidence for intelligent life elsewhere.”

[proxy_user]

The predictions I find most interesting are not from sci-fi writers, but from Paul Kennedy in his book ‘Preparing for the 21st Century’ published in 1993. He is a distinguished historian and demographer, and his predictions are eerily close and at the same time way off.

He basically underestimates the amount of social and technological change that is possible. For example, in analyzing China and India, he dismissed the possibility that they could grow their economies dramatically. He doesn’t see the internet coming (this in 1993!), far less the social impact that it will have on Western society.

I believe that this book represents the best anyone can do in predicting the future, and shows how little it is possible to know what will happen next.

[Buckeye McFrog]

L. Ron Hubbard’s prediction that “most major Hollywood stars would belong to a wacky religious cult” was certainly on the mark...

[Brookhaven]

Their concerns for the future are essentially the exact same ones you hear from intellectuals today:

overpopulation

food shortages

fossil fuel shortages which require the widespread use of green/renewable energy

environmental disaster

None of which—not one—has come to pass in the last 25 years.

If the “intellectuals” of a quarter century ago could be THIS wrong about the future, why should we think people making the same predictions today are correct?

[Mouton]

I bet not one of them envisioned the US would have as president some islamic marxist either.

[AD from SpringBay]

If you want to read some funny predictions, google ‘First Earth Day predictions’. The planet shoudl have been dead about three times by now.

[UB355]

The real joke in the article itself is that all this technology is used to stream the TV show Community.

[UB355]

The real joke in the article itself is that all this technology is used to stream the TV show Community.

[circlecity]

Did Hubbard predict his lousy book would be made into a movie many consider to be the absolute worst flick of all time?

[muir_redwoods]

Arthur C. Clarke observed that humans are over-optimistic in the short run and under-optimistic in the long run. If you want to be right, guess wildly optimistically for 1000 years hence.

[wbill]

should we think people making the same predictions today are correct?

It's ideal.

If nothing comes to pass, then the prognosticator can say "Man, it's good that I raised the alarm."

If everything comes to pass and the world goes to hell in a handbasket then the prognosticator can say "I told you so."

Sooner or later, they'll be right. For instance, I'm sure that there was someone who predicted WW II and Hitler's rise to power, in the 20s, and was immediately labelled a 'crackpot'. "Exterminate millions of people? Unthinkable."

[wildbill]

bump for later

[Kenton]

And yet, none of them could foresee the coming of the...

[SunkenCiv]

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In 1987. Thanks EveningStar! Longer Perspectives topic. Just adding to the catalog, not sending a general distribution. To all -- please ping me to other topics which are appropriate for the GGG list.