Ras I think is reliable and has gotten the convention bump for Obama, and I think he will show it fade (fast) in the next few days. For example, his "strongly disapprove/strongly approve," which is one of his little tweaks, was only at -9 when in the past it has hovered between -15 and -26. So will this stay at -9? Strongly doubt it.
That said, I think even Ras is not fully "getting" the impact of the turnout/voter ID shift from 2008 to now. For details, see WI and Scott Walker's recall :)