OK. Go to town.

That’s the stupid money.

It’s insane how that’s been spiking up lately.

Burning embassies and a dead ambassador sodomized and dragged through the streets say those numbers are **BULLSH*T**

Mitt didn’t help himself today, by throwing the stupid movie under the bus.

And it was 79% chance that Supremes would overturn Obamacare 1 hours before it didn’t.

Probably listening to the consultants.

I remember when Kerry was close to 90% on Intrade before it was revealed that the leaked exit poll numbers were inaccurate.

Intrade, contrary to what people think, is the stupid money. The total amount wagered there for the POTUS race is about $8 million dollars. 4 year olds in the US spend more on lollipops.

The real smart money is betting trillions and hundreds of billions of dollars in the US stock markets. And I think the markets anticipate a Romney victory.

Intrade (WTF - Zero has 60%?????) and Real Clear Politics (Hussein’s poll average consistently at least even with Romney) are the two most depressing sites on the internet.

all this stuff and the polls are upsetting but I think many things are rigged....

support Romney and all your pub senators and congressmen...donate money...as much as you can...volunteer....

stay positive...

I can understand how McCain lost....everything was wrong for the pubs then...

but everything is right this year...bammey has been a disaster....a humiliating unsettling idiot and he is going to get us into war and the possibility of a nuclear bomb is ever present....

we have to elect Romney no matter what his negatives might be....

"Mitt didn’t help himself today, by throwing the stupid movie under the bus."

Mitt doesn't help himself when he doesn't be Presidential and that's every day.

When you think of Eisenhower going to Korea, Nixon to China and Reagan with Kruschev and see Romney unable to do anything but shovel dung at Obama about some film, Romney is higher in the polls that he merits. If he continues to act like a man of small ideas, then he is going nowhere. If he thinks Islam is the problem then he should pick himself up and offer to meet them and maybe win the election.

With all the news in our world right now, Mitt’s trashing the movie isn’t a blip.

The one time I fell for that site’s bullshit.

The last time I will.

It doesn’t make a bit of difference, they love him. Obama will play it for all it is worth and he is winning and will ultimately be re-elected. Romney has been crucified by the MSM, now ignored.

It may happen. CWII will follow as night follows day. WWIII will be on almost instantly.

The Limits of Intrade

Posted on January 11, 2012 by shubik

Reporters, bloggers and political junkies love to cite prices on Intrade as indications of the true state of the Republican primaries. It’s understandable why–Intrade often gives a much clearer picture of each candidate’s chances than polling or political commentary. But Intrade has a number of flaws that aren’t apparent to passive observers. I started trading on Intrade last fall and was pretty surprised at the problems in what’s generally thought of as the top political predictions market. In short, the problems are illiquidity (leading to unreliable and volatile “last prediction” quotes, even in popular markets) and uncertainty regarding how Intrade is run and how it functions:

Spreads on Intrade are huge: For nearly all markets, there’s a significant spread between the standing buy price and the standing sell price. For example, if you want to go long Newt winning South Carolina, a contract will currently cost you $1.87 (18.7%). If you want to short the same contract, you’ll currently have to short it at $1.30 (13%)–a massive 50 cent spread for what should be one of the most popular contracts. While reporters and bloggers only cite a single percentage reflecting the most recent transaction (“Romney at 70% on Intrade”), the bid-ask spread gives you a much clearer picture of the market.

Intrade’s management is unpredictable: Last November, I bet against Herman Cain dropping out of the campaign before the end of 2011. This obviously didn’t work out too well for me, but what’s interesting is how Intrade reacted to Cain’s announcement that he was “suspending” his campaign. Cain’s announcement came on a Saturday and throughout the whole weekend, people bought and sold contracts (I think the going rate was around 90%) while they waited for Intrade to decide whether suspending a campaign is the same as dropping out. All of the trading was purely based on uncertainty regarding Intrade’s judgement. On Monday, Intrade not only decided that Cain’s suspension was equivalent to dropping out but they also reversed all trades which occurred since Cain’s announcement. That Cain had dropped out was a no-brainer but that Intrade would reverse trades which had occurred between willing counterparties was pretty shocking to me. Not the best way to run a market.

Intrade’s website can get overloaded: During the night of the Iowa caucuses, the price of contracts for Santorum, Romney and Paul fluctuated wildly as breaking news favored one candidate or the other. At one point, Nate Silver pointed out that Ron Paul had hit 50% on Intrade–for Ron Paul bears, a great opportunity for a short. Unfortunately for those bears, Intrade’s website was massively overloaded that night and, at least for me, too slow to get any trades in. So on a primary night, just when you might want to turn to Intrade to get an idea of what’s actually going might be when the site’s at its most unreliable.

All of this isn’t to say that Intrade’s predictions should be ignored. They’re often one of the most accurate predictors available. But when you see an Intrade probability on some political blog, just know it comes from a highly illiquid, at times dysfunctional market and treat it with appropriate caution.

Mitt Romney’s vice president July 2012

Paul Ryan Intrade chances: 4.1%

Rob Portman Intrade chances: 32%

These were the guys who said the USSC would rule Obamacare unconstitutional by a huge margin. I think it as I’ve 75%.

Jeez, you’re exactly 10 days older than I am here on FR, and you’ve surrendered? The re-election of 0bama is NOT inevitable, and in fact looks even more questionable now. Don’t give in to ‘Rat-generated propaganda FRiend, we’ve got a battle to fight between now and November 6th, ok?

There’s a huge difference between predicting election results and predicting SCOTUS decisions, as there is much much more publicly-available information concerning elections than there is about SCOTUS deliberations. Historically, Intrade has been pretty accurate about elections (though it’s still too early for Intrade to be accurate in this cycle).

I think a lot of these traders on Intrade are mostly influenced by the media and polls that are being embraced by the media.

If you were to close your eyes, forget chick fil-a and the race of 2010 and rely on the mainstream media love fest happening right now, then you would certainly predict Obama to win.

BINGO!! I agree!!

"I can understand how McCain lost....everything was wrong for the pubs then... but everything is right this year...bammey has been a disaster...."

Everything right except Romney.

"we have to elect Romney no matter what his negatives might be...."

Speak for your self. I'll never vote Romney.

Lol, checking my credentials huh? There shouldn’t even be a battle to fight, that is the entire point. I honestly believe this ME thing isn’t a lot different from the 2008 financial meltdown. About this time four years ago, Obama was doing well in the polls only on financial matters. Shazam! The US is hit with a financial crisis, which played right into his one strength. Fast forward, just four years later, Obama is winning all the polls regarding his “foreign policy”. What do we have, yep, a foreign crisis. I know I sound loony but I don’t believe in coincidences.

Might also add, the financial meltdown of 2008 happened during the same week of September as the current crisis, which is unfolding now.

Maybe this is where the OfA and Stimulus 1, 2, or 3 is really going......

Lol, checking my credentials huh?

You betcha FRiend! LOL - the Class of March '03 was a memorable one ;)

There shouldn’t even be a battle to fight, that is the entire point. I honestly believe this ME thing isn’t a lot different from the 2008 financial meltdown. About this time four years ago, Obama was doing well in the polls only on financial matters. Shazam! The US is hit with a financial crisis, which played right into his one strength. Fast forward, just four years later, Obama is winning all the polls regarding his “foreign policy”. What do we have, yep, a foreign crisis. I know I sound loony but I don’t believe in coincidences.

No it isn't loony at all - we all know the 0bamunist Ministry of Disinformation (aka 'the media') spins all events in favor of the Dear Reader, no different than what the NorK media drones do in Pyongyang. The parallels are positively eerie.

I do believe however, that the current events both domestically and internationally are stripping the bark off that little Kenyan bastard, and We The People have at LEAST one more grand roar of indignation and rebellion left, and we will see the manifestation of that on November 6th.

My best to you and yours, fellow alumni! ;)

I'd like to see some stats regarding who's participating in this thing.Like do foreigners participate and,if so,to what extent?

OK, now stop for a minute and look at what you're saying.

Really, to win independents and make the difference between him and the empty chair clear, Mitt Romney has to act like some YouTube video by some moron is a good thing? How many voters do you really think are out there thinking to themselves, ""When he praised the service of the folks we lost I was with him, when he said that the President had failed I was with him, but I'm voting for Obama because Mitt criticized a YouTube video. Good thing I have no job, I won't have to get up early to vote for BHO."

Well, they are depressing because they are giving you pathetically false information, and I will stand by that statement even if Obama wins. Here’s why:

1. Intrade can be manipulated. Who says Obama can’t ask some people near him who are corrupt or who are really convinced he’ll win to go place victory bets on Intrade?

2. Intrade can screw up. As a freeper pointed out above, Intrade had Kerry at 90% on Election Day in 2004 based on the crappy exit polls.

3. Intrade often just reflects what the media is saying. In Wisconsin this past June every media outlet that wasn’t overtly leftist was doing reporting that portrayed Walker on the cusp of victory (partly based on the fact the the Dem-boosting PPP was showing walker with a decent lead), and Intrade suddenly spiked up to a comfortable Walker win.

4. The money trading on Intrade is less than $8 million. Chump change. People with a lot more skin in the game (stock market) are, as noted above, way more confident.

5. RCP averages are not just a joke, they’re a pathetic joke. Yesterday I saw Bill Hemmer on Fox talking about the RCP average in a swing state (Virginia , IIRC) and the time period the polls in the average covered was August 13 to September 11. A polling period nearly a month long! Polls in the average that took place before either convention!

6. The RCP averages don’t weight or discriminate due to polling methods or the pool of poll respondents. Polls of adults, registered voters and likely voters are all thrown in the same pot. So, if candidate A is losing but has a good public image overall, his numbers are boosted by the opinion of hundreds or even thousands of adults who will never go near a voting booth on Nov. 6.

7. The RCP averages take outliers and political polls and make them part of the calculation rather than throwing them out. A blatantly obvious PPP poll or Republican push poll is given the same weight as Rasmussen’s most careful work. In fact, if a national poll showed Obama losing by 20 points, the RCP average would show a massive gain for Romney, even though we all know that poll is a ludicrous outlier.

I’m not saying by any means we have this in the bag, but Intrade and RCP have nothing to tell us.

Of course I’m not suggesting that the video is a good thing.....I would just say that it should be irrelevant, and that our First Amendment Rights are given up for no one.

Some dimwit this morning ticked me off while I was driving to the gym listening to the radio. I don’t know what show this was, but it was some financial program and the guy said that Bernanke’s QE3 tossed any chance of Romney winning the presidency out the window. It makes no sense to me because I believe the Fed’s actions will only make the economy worse. This guy also cited the recent spike on Intrade as proof. I don’t believe the guy at all, but the mere mention of Obama being re-elected was enough to upset my mood.

We can’t afford 4 more years of Obama. Everyone please vote Romney, even if you have some reservations about his positions. Obama must be defeated!

Intrade is driven by people who are themselves driven by MSM/DNC propaganda.