Intrade (WTF - Zero has 60%?????) and Real Clear Politics (Hussein’s poll average consistently at least even with Romney) are the two most depressing sites on the internet.
Well, they are depressing because they are giving you pathetically false information, and I will stand by that statement even if Obama wins. Here’s why:
1. Intrade can be manipulated. Who says Obama can’t ask some people near him who are corrupt or who are really convinced he’ll win to go place victory bets on Intrade?
2. Intrade can screw up. As a freeper pointed out above, Intrade had Kerry at 90% on Election Day in 2004 based on the crappy exit polls.
3. Intrade often just reflects what the media is saying. In Wisconsin this past June every media outlet that wasn’t overtly leftist was doing reporting that portrayed Walker on the cusp of victory (partly based on the fact the the Dem-boosting PPP was showing walker with a decent lead), and Intrade suddenly spiked up to a comfortable Walker win.
4. The money trading on Intrade is less than $8 million. Chump change. People with a lot more skin in the game (stock market) are, as noted above, way more confident.
5. RCP averages are not just a joke, they’re a pathetic joke. Yesterday I saw Bill Hemmer on Fox talking about the RCP average in a swing state (Virginia , IIRC) and the time period the polls in the average covered was August 13 to September 11. A polling period nearly a month long! Polls in the average that took place before either convention!
6. The RCP averages don’t weight or discriminate due to polling methods or the pool of poll respondents. Polls of adults, registered voters and likely voters are all thrown in the same pot. So, if candidate A is losing but has a good public image overall, his numbers are boosted by the opinion of hundreds or even thousands of adults who will never go near a voting booth on Nov. 6.
7. The RCP averages take outliers and political polls and make them part of the calculation rather than throwing them out. A blatantly obvious PPP poll or Republican push poll is given the same weight as Rasmussen’s most careful work. In fact, if a national poll showed Obama losing by 20 points, the RCP average would show a massive gain for Romney, even though we all know that poll is a ludicrous outlier.
I’m not saying by any means we have this in the bag, but Intrade and RCP have nothing to tell us.