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Why The Polls Under State Romney Vote
Dick Morris ^ | 9/21/2012 | Dick Morris

Posted on 09/21/2012 11:35:02 AM PDT by Signalman

Republicans are getting depressed under an avalanche of polling suggesting that an Obama victory is in the offing. They, in fact, suggest no such thing! Here’s why:

1. All of the polling out there uses some variant of the 2008 election turnout as its model for weighting respondents and this overstates the Democratic vote by a huge margin.

In English, this means that when you do a poll you ask people if they are likely to vote. But any telephone survey always has too few blacks, Latinos, and young people and too many elderly in its sample. That’s because some don’t have landlines or are rarely at home or don’t speak English well enough to be interviewed or don’t have time to talk. Elderly are overstated because they tend to be home and to have time. So you need to increase the weight given to interviews with young people, blacks and Latinos and count those with seniors a bit less.

Normally, this task is not difficult. Over the years, the black, Latino, young, and elderly proportion of the electorate has been fairly constant from election to election, except for a gradual increase in the Hispanic vote. You just need to look back at the last election to weight your polling numbers for this one.

But 2008 was no ordinary election. Blacks, for example, usually cast only 11% of the vote, but, in 2008, they made up 14% of the vote. Latinos increased their share of the vote by 1.5% and college kids almost doubled their vote share. Almost all pollsters are using the 2008 turnout models in weighting their samples. Rasmussen, more accurately, uses a mixture of 2008 and 2004 turnouts in determining his sample. That’s why his data usually is better for Romney.

But polling indicates a widespread lack of enthusiasm among Obama’s core demographic support due to high unemployment, disappointment with his policies and performance, and the lack of novelty in voting for a black candidate now that he has already served as president.

If you adjust virtually any of the published polls to reflect the 2004 vote, not the 2008 vote, they show the race either tied or Romney ahead, a view much closer to reality.

2. Almost all of the published polls show Obama getting less than 50% of the vote and less than 50% job approval. A majority of the voters either support Romney or are undecided in almost every poll.

But the fact is that the undecided vote always goes against the incumbent. In 1980 (the last time an incumbent Democrat was beaten), for example, the Gallup Poll of October 27th had Carter ahead by 45-39. Their survey on November 2nd showed Reagan catching up and leading by three points. In the actual voting, the Republican won by nine. The undecided vote broke sharply — and unanimously — for the challenger.

An undecided voter has really decided not to back the incumbent. He just won’t focus on the race until later in the game.

So, when the published poll shows Obama ahead by, say, 48-45, he’s really probably losing by 52-48!

Add these two factors together and the polls that are out there are all misleading. Any professional pollster (those consultants hired by candidates not by media outlets) would publish two findings for each poll — one using 2004 turnout modeling and the other using 2008 modeling. This would indicate just how dependent on an unusually high turnout of his base the Obama camp really is.


TOPICS: Miscellaneous
KEYWORDS: mediawingofthednc; morris; partisanmediashills; polls; understae

1 posted on 09/21/2012 11:35:07 AM PDT by Signalman
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To: Signalman

I’d like to believe him but I remember all the reasons posted for not believing the polls in 2008, and McCain lost.

So I hope he’s right, but I’m not counting my chickens before they’re hatched.


2 posted on 09/21/2012 11:38:14 AM PDT by Persevero (Homeschooling for Excellence since 1992)
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To: Signalman

I don’t pay much attention to polls.

They are used by press organizations for a couple of reasons. First, they displace real news. Instead of reporting news, you report what people think about the news.

Second, by the way you set up the polls and report them, you influence the way people think about the news that you aren’t really reporting.

And then its third reason, for a propagandist, the polling tells you how well you’re doing in terms of shaping public perceptions, if your propaganda and PR are working, and if you need to refocus your efforts and how.


3 posted on 09/21/2012 11:44:29 AM PDT by marron
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To: Signalman

Every time I see the same old MSM polls, I’m reminded of a quote by Dr. Richard Kimball in the Fugitive: “You switched the samples!”

At this stage of the game it really looks like pure MSM psyops: demoralize GOP turnout by making a Obama victory look “inevitable.”

We can’t either despair or get overconfident. My best guess is that Romney is up by about 4 or 5, but we have to push hard to the finish and not let them get us off our game.


4 posted on 09/21/2012 11:52:03 AM PDT by Deo et Patria
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To: Persevero
Some call him a toe sucker (which he is), some call him a looser, but he did get Bubba reelected after the Republican contract - not to mention other Republicans. From what I've seen, the polls are truly whacked.
5 posted on 09/21/2012 11:53:41 AM PDT by 103198
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To: Signalman

I would think that the 2010 election turnout has a lot of relevance. More than 2008 or 2004.

I know I’m pi$$ed enough to vote for a RINO like Romney to keep the incompetent socialist out of office.

Romney even has a shot at taking Connecticut, so the toe-sucker is making some sense here.


6 posted on 09/21/2012 11:53:47 AM PDT by kidd
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To: Persevero
I’d like to believe him but I remember all the reasons posted for not believing the polls in 2008, and McCain lost.

In 08 the polls were based on the 04 results, and so understated the vote for Obama, for exactly the reasons Dick explains in this article.

7 posted on 09/21/2012 11:56:06 AM PDT by Sherman Logan (Perception wins all the battles. Reality wins all the wars.)
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To: Signalman

Polls created for media consumption are not designed to be accurate. They’re designed to attract attention. The polls that we never see belong to the respective parties and are considered proprietary information. They spend hundreds of thousands of dollars for this data, and I guarantee you they’re not going to share that info. Watching a campaign is a bit like watching a Texas Hold’em tournament on ESPN. You never know what cards they’re holding until the final call. The only clues come from how they’re betting.


8 posted on 09/21/2012 11:57:48 AM PDT by Tar and Feathers (http://tarandfeathersusa.wordpress.com/)
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To: Tar and Feathers

Except the polls were pretty darn accurate in 2008 and that is what has some of us more than a little jittery this time around.


9 posted on 09/21/2012 11:59:34 AM PDT by tatown ( FUMD, FUAC, and FUGB)
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To: Signalman

People are lying to the polls?


10 posted on 09/21/2012 11:59:54 AM PDT by B.O. Plenty (Elections have consequences....)
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To: Persevero

Morris was one of the few analysts that predicted the 2010 landslide though.


11 posted on 09/21/2012 12:01:18 PM PDT by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obama)
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To: Persevero

I never though McCain was going to win

I knew the Palin Vote would improve his chances- he would have lost in a landslide without her.

But I never expected him to win. Not with The Media Whorenalists cheerleading for Obambi the way they were.

There was not a lot of reason NOT TO vote for Obambi last time- no one (except us) knew anything about him... so there was a strong factor of “lets take a chance”- that is GONE GONE GONE


12 posted on 09/21/2012 12:01:33 PM PDT by Mr. K (Washington is where good ideas go to die- Ronald Reagan)
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To: tatown

The polls were accurate because they saw a massive groundswell of Obamamania and gave him a +8 advantage with polling, which was correct. To still be giving him such an advantage today is borderline ridiculous.


13 posted on 09/21/2012 12:11:05 PM PDT by Viennacon
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To: Deo et Patria
At this stage of the game it really looks like pure MSM psyops: demoralize GOP turnout by making a Obama victory look “inevitable.”

and you can't raise money if the press says you're way behind

.

14 posted on 09/21/2012 12:12:12 PM PDT by Elle Bee
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To: Viennacon

I’m not discounting what your are saying and in no way do I feel that turnout for the shithead will be anywhere close to 2008 but once burned by the idea of ‘bad polls’ it’s hard to completely discount them this time around.... I’m trying but it’s not easy.


15 posted on 09/21/2012 12:15:56 PM PDT by tatown ( FUMD, FUAC, and FUGB)
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To: Persevero

You are quite right.

This election is pretty scary. And as of right now, Romney is close, but he hasn’t closed the deal. Not yet. I did see a poll with him up in FL today, and that’s good. But still, about a three point bump nationally would be good, and then OH, VA and FL need to fall into line.


16 posted on 09/21/2012 12:29:57 PM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: Deo et Patria
At this stage of the game it really looks like pure MSM psyops: demoralize GOP turnout by making a Obama victory look “inevitable.”

...and in this election cycle that is a very dangerous play on the part of the MSM. There is another side to that coin.

17 posted on 09/21/2012 12:30:37 PM PDT by houeto (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: tatown
Except the polls were pretty darn accurate in 2008 and that is what has some of us more than a little jittery this time around.

SOME polls were accurate.

The polls by professional polling houses (Gallup, Rasmussen, ARG, SurveyUSA, etc.) showed a steady Obama lead for a month leading into the election. They were largely correct. MSM polls showed Obama with unsupportably huge leads (10-15%, when he actually only won by 7. These usually overstated Obama's support, and for much the same reason as they are today - messed up internal demographics and unrealistic partisan ID breakdowns.

18 posted on 09/21/2012 12:31:01 PM PDT by Yashcheritsiy (You can wish in one hand and spit in the other and see which gets filled first.)
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To: Signalman

My house ONLY has cell phones, no land line. Both of us will be in line first day of early voting. My grown 3 children only have cell phones, the 5 of them will be voting for Romney. We don’t get polled!!!


19 posted on 09/21/2012 12:31:11 PM PDT by JFC
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To: Persevero

One thing, though, that we SHOULD all remember. The 2004 day of election exist polls were absolutely, unquestionably falsified in order to give the impression of a Kerry victory...with the hopes of propelling Kerry to victory.

So we do in fact know that polls (in this case exist polls) are SOMETIMES falsified and deliberately distorted. Problem is, though, that in 2008...as you correctly note...the polls were correct on the outcome and the good ones were correct on teh margin (ie, Rasmussen).

A final point: most of the polls did in fact underestimate what McCain finally got. So, some of the pre-election day analysis that said McCain’s vote was underreported turned out to be correct...just not correct enough.

So what’s the action item? I suppose my take away, personally, is simply to watch Rasmussen, which I do.

And by Rasmussen, Romney has NOT won as of today.

Hopefully next week will bring positive movement.


20 posted on 09/21/2012 12:34:32 PM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: Persevero

One thing, though, that we SHOULD all remember. The 2004 day of election exist polls were absolutely, unquestionably falsified in order to give the impression of a Kerry victory...with the hopes of propelling Kerry to victory.

So we do in fact know that polls (in this case exist polls) are SOMETIMES falsified and deliberately distorted. Problem is, though, that in 2008...as you correctly note...the polls were correct on the outcome and the good ones were correct on teh margin (ie, Rasmussen).

A final point: most of the polls did in fact underestimate what McCain finally got. So, some of the pre-election day analysis that said McCain’s vote was underreported turned out to be correct...just not correct enough.

So what’s the action item? I suppose my take away, personally, is simply to watch Rasmussen, which I do.

And by Rasmussen, Romney has NOT won as of today.

Hopefully next week will bring positive movement.


21 posted on 09/21/2012 12:34:36 PM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: Yashcheritsiy

The RCP average was very close to the actual result.


22 posted on 09/21/2012 12:34:43 PM PDT by tatown ( FUMD, FUAC, and FUGB)
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To: ConservativeDude

Absent other evidence, I believe the best turnout model is somewhere between the 2004 presidential and the 2010 midterm. The electorate won’t have the GOP dominance of 2010 since it is a presidential year, but we should exceed the GOP percentage of 2004.

Relying on 2008 is a joke.


23 posted on 09/21/2012 12:40:29 PM PDT by mwl8787
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To: Persevero

if they turn out is closer to what happened in2010 (and WE CONTROL THAT) then Morris is correct


24 posted on 09/21/2012 12:58:42 PM PDT by Nifster
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To: mwl8787

“Absent other evidence, I believe the best turnout model is somewhere between the 2004 presidential and the 2010 midterm. The electorate won’t have the GOP dominance of 2010 since it is a presidential year, but we should exceed the GOP percentage of 2004.

Relying on 2008 is a joke.”

I disagree. Why shouldn’t turnout be at 2010 levels or more for the republicans? I was mad as hell in 2010, and couldn’t wait to vote. Even though Zero was not on the ballot, I was part of the wave that helped overturn the House.

I thought I was fired up in 2010, but that was nothing to the rage I feel against Zero and his regime now. We have had F&F, Obamacare passed, presidential decrees getting rid of work requirements for welfare, no added security at our embassies on Sept. 11, blaming it all on a video, and Zero not bothering to attend security briefings or meet with Bibi but being able to fit Letterman, Jayzee, and Beyonce into his schedule.... I know that there is a wave of rage even bigger than what was felt in 2010.

And if we turn out as we did in 2010, it’s all over for Zero. The lame-streams know this, and they are shamelessly doing everything in their power to make republicans think it is already over for Romney with these crap polls that over-sample Dims.


25 posted on 09/21/2012 1:20:41 PM PDT by ShovelThemOut
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To: Nifster

I dont give a DAMN about what the MSM, the misguided celebrities, or the weighted polls say I believe the American spirit will prevail


26 posted on 09/21/2012 1:21:41 PM PDT by jsanders2001
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To: B.O. Plenty
People are lying to the polls?

Hell yes, I lie all the time.

I've been polled many times this year and when it is an automated phone poll {press 1 for this and 2 for that} I am a female, black or latino, young 18-28, registered demonRAT, undecided or voting for Romney or obama but I never tell the truth.

Piss in the pollsters breakfast cereal.

27 posted on 09/21/2012 1:23:45 PM PDT by USS Alaska (Nuke the terrorist savages, start today.)
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To: Persevero
I’d like to believe him but I remember all the reasons posted for not believing the polls in 2008, and McCain lost.

When pretty much ALL the polls are going against you, you're losing. There are 9 polls in the RCP average today, Romney is losing 8 of them and tied in 1.

Dick Morris is simply telling conservatives what they want to hear. Right now a positive message is probably the best thing for us, but I wouldn't put any stock in any prediction Dick Morris makes. He owes O'Reilly like a dozen steak dinners for all the times he's been wrong just between those two.

This election should have been a referendum on the incumbent, instead it's boiling down to a choice. "Referendum" gave us our best chance to win. "Choice" means voters pick who they personally like better - unfortunately they really, really still want to like Obama.

28 posted on 09/21/2012 1:48:55 PM PDT by Longbow1969
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To: Persevero

Yeah, I’m thinking I recently heard Jim Geraghty say that the undecided vote broke 50/50 in 2004.


29 posted on 09/21/2012 2:01:40 PM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: Signalman
Sheesh.

I agree with Morris's conclusion, but "Under State.?"

Dick, it's one word -- "understate." I know, it's tough running a one-man show, but hire an editor part-time.

30 posted on 09/21/2012 3:53:28 PM PDT by BfloGuy (Without economic freedom, no other form of freedom can have material meaning.)
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To: jsanders2001

I am with you on that one....


31 posted on 09/21/2012 6:48:30 PM PDT by Nifster
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To: Signalman

Under which State?


32 posted on 09/22/2012 1:24:14 AM PDT by Rudder
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