Skip to comments.Obama's Problem with Independents (vanity)
Posted on 09/23/2012 7:03:05 AM PDT by tatown
With poll after poll showing Obama trailing among independents by 5 to 15 points, how is it possible for this race to be close? Rasmussen just today has Romney up 12 points among indies yet shows the race tied. Is Rasmussen now using a 2008 (or even more slanted) dem advantage turnout model?
I think the problem is that conservatives are still not on board.
Interesting if you look at Obama’s first approval rate on 1/21/2009 it is 44% of the people surveyed had a strong approval of Obama.
Today his strong approval rate is 31%. His strong disapproval rate back then was 16 and now it is 42% hence the -11 index currently.
If you think that people with strong approval would be more likely to go out and vote for their man and strong disapproval vote against him; you may come to the conclusion that his turnout this time may not be so high as last.
The news media sets the perception of issues and conditions.
Perception, however, isn’t always reality.
I posted this in another thread as well...
To figure out where the national vote will go, just look at the independent vote, going back to 1988 (past 5 elections) — w MOE 2%, and there is your national election...
Obama won indies by 8 in 2008. Won election by 7. (Indy was off D+1)
Bush tied indies in 2004. Won election by 2. (Indy margin off D+2)
Bush lost indies by 2 in 2000. Tied national vote (essentially). (Indy margin off D+2).
Clinton won indies by 8 in 1996. Won national vote by 8. (Perot impacted a bit too). (Indy margin tied)
1992 too screwed up w Perot
Bush won indies by 10 in 1988. Won national vote by 8. (Indy margin off R+2)
nhwingut, have you got a source for this information (percent of indies voting)? I’d like to research this. Thanks.
I was using CNN and ABC.
However, I found this one at Roper Center (below) which lists them all in one place. The only difference from mine is they list HW Bush winning indies by 14 (not 10). So we can assume from this that when indies predict a double digit blow out, it will be a landslide - 426-111 electoral college was a Reaganesque landslide.
So with Mitt up 12 with indies we can safely assume that he will win election by 6-10 points.
If we use only the last 4 elections, back to 1992, Mitt will win by the margin scored by indies, with MOE 2%.
Yes, this is one thing that has not been making sense to me. Rs and Ds are locked in, but neither group is a majority, so you have to win the election with Is. I don’t see how Romney can win the Is but lose the election, esp. since the D vote is likely to be less than the Rs this time around.
IMHO all of them at least until the last day or two are using models to keep it tight! If it is one sided then you have no interest in their polls and their advertising dollar suffers. They have to keep it to the edge of your seat so the TV shows call on them to be “knowledgable” experts so they get free advertising for their wares. It is the art of propaganda that Woodrow Wilson and his cronies were so expert at.
The line used by my Louisiana colleagues, is thus:
“ The Democrats couldn’t get it in gear, before Hurricane Katrina struck landfall. The Republicans couldn’t get it in gear, once the hurricane blew by.”
We are Independents, because we both hate and distrust BOTH parties!
This website agrees with your estimate. It basically takes some of the Dem over sampling out of existing polls.
UnSkewed Polling Data
Monday, September 24, 2012 9:41:19 AM
UnSkewed Avg. 9/4 - 9/20 Romney +7.8
Reason/Rupe 9/13 - 9/17 787 LV Romney +7
Reuters/Ipsos 9/12 - 9/20 1437 LV Romney +10
NBC News/WSJ 9/12 - 9/16 736 LV Romney +7
Monmouth Univ. 9/13 - 9/16 1344 LV Romney +5
QStarNews 9/10 - 9/15 2075 Romney +11
NY Times/CBS News 9/8 - 9/12 1162 LV Romney +7
Democracy Corps 9/8 - 9/12 1000 LV Romney +8
Fox News 9/9 - 9/11 1056 LV Romney +3
Wash. Post/ABC News 9/7 - 9/9 826 LV Romney +7
CNN/ORC 9/7 - 9/9 875 RV Romney +8
IBD/CSM/TIPP 9/4 - 9/9 808 RV Romney +9
ARG 9/4 - 9/6 1200 LV Romney +10