Skip to comments.Civitas Poll: Obama, Biden Lead Romney, Ryan in NC 49% - 45% (Taken 9/18-9/19)
Posted on 09/24/2012 1:22:03 PM PDT by Adriatic Cons
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Got yourself banned noob. Get back to your mom’s basement.
Sure. Obamugabe’s coming out to celebrate sodomy the day after North Carolina rejected the idea is what is putting him over the top.
A senior fundraiser in the NC Republican machine just told me that Obama pulled out of NC over the weekend. I thought that was good news, but he said that the R’s had hoped that Obama would spend a fortune here and then lose by 5 points.
Civitas is a great organization and very well respected in the conservative movement. They were big supporters of the Tea Party Movement and I first met their people at a July 4th, 2009 Tea Party rally in Raleigh.
They weighed their poll like the leftist pollsters to see what would happen and to draw Obama back to NC to spend money.
I still believe unskewedpolls.com.
There is NO enthusiasm for Obama in 2012 in NC - none!
The white Obama supporters I know talk of how “disappointed” the are and how they will not vote for him again. Of course, that means they will not vote, period.
The down ticket races are boring and lopsided R and, except for a few R wins in the House, are not worth the usual D GOTV mania.
I hope Obama spends a lot of money here. Several of my friends work in the TV business and would enjoy the year end bonuses!
Thank you Brad! I guess it is a little more obvious than I thought.
Based on what we’re seeing with absentee ballots in OH, I just don’t see how any of these polls are legit. So far, we are seeing substantial GOP leads in reddish counties; some GOP lead in some heavily Dem counties; and about the predicted split in Cayahoga County-—except that if the indies go for Romney, then OH goes red.
Good news. How do you know what actual vote counts are ?
Thanks for a response.
In 2008 there where countless reports of polls oversampling Dems
Good God,*Massachusetts* has party numbers that are close to that.
Sorry but your claims about the polling are across the board wrong. Read it and weep
No there were not. What there were were countless claims that an immeasurable "Brady effect" was going to change the polling data. That white voters were going to not vote for Obama but would tell the pollsters that they were to avoid being accused of racism.
Another ridiculous sample D45/R33/I22
Of course we don’t know what actual votes are. I’m making a couple of assumptions: no Republicans will vote for Obama, and few, if any, Democrats will vote for Romney! So, if purely by numbers the GOP is up in the red counties outside the MOE and holding in the blue counties, we should be in good shape.
But you're free to think what you want, and be as negative/"realistic" as you choose. When I see polls that reflect the OH 36-34-30 OH splits in D/R/I, then I'm happy to accept whatever they say.
This time around the polls are going to be shown for what they are. They all have Obama winning. Wait until November 6.
That said, I seriously doubt that Obama will win NC, but when you look at the crosstabs, you see that Obama has significantly shored up support among Dems (who still have a strong registration advantage in NC) since their last poll after holding the DNC here. Seems realistic enough in that respect.
However, their turnout model is based on 2008’s or thereabouts. Naturally, after 2010 we all have our doubts about that but I'm wondering what people think the turnout model ought to be - I mean come on, it certainly shouldn't be based on 2010. So just take a deep breath, understand that this is probably just the worst case scenario based on recent precedent, and admit that there's still work to be done to win this damn thing.
Party registration in NC as of today:
Uh, no. Wrong group. NC Civitas is funded by conservative NC millionaire Art Pope.
Being a good conservative group doesn’t mean their a solid and good pollster. Their samples are insane.
Rasmussen has North Carolina: Romney 51%, Obama 45%
I think about a month.
I think “pulled out” refers to the ground game of calling and knocking on doors.
The urban stations have a limited demographic and they charge less for their ads than, let’s say WRAL 101.5.
The fact that they are spending time and money projecting a guilt trip on their base confirms what I hear, that AME and Baptist ministers are saying that black Christians cannot vote for a Mormon or a gay-marriage advocate, so, don’t vote this year as a protest. (Sound familiar?)
Also, the Governor’s race is a done deal with McCrory +15 and no Senate race this year. Re-districting has made most House races easy for R’s.
BTW, I registered as a Democrat when Jesse Helms asked conservatives to register D to vote in the primaries.
There are a lot of residual “Jesse-crats” left in NC, which helps the skew. Rush advocated this in the 2008 primary as part of “Operation Chaos”. Also, I would bet that since they changed the primary rules to allow Independents to vote in EITHER primary, many Independents are very conservative.
Then this poll is crazy because it is wrong and no conservative would ever release the data if it were so wrong. He should have redone the poll and fixed their internal screwups. There is no way this poll is correct and November 6th wil prove it.
Maybe not lying, but using the registration numbers without accounting for the Jesse-crats that are very conservative but strategically registered as D’s.
At the peak of Jesse’s power, and before I’s were allowed to vote in either primary, about 70% of NC was registered D. That has not completely unwound, yet.
Where are those figures from? Polling firms? The state?
I think the projections of a huge drop-off by blacks are mostly wishful thinking. The drumbeat is daily on ‘black media’ that ‘we need to defend our guy against those whites errr I mean Republicans.’ The Dems get what must be billions of dollars in free advertising/GOTV-pushing on black radio, etc., because the DJs come on between songs and urge support.
I hope you’re right of course, but I think the biggest drop-off among blacks, and it won’t be that significant, will be among the young (where I think we’ll see the real drop in turnout across all races). But overall if black turnout is less than 95% of what it was in 2008, I’ll be a little surprised.
Apparently they’re sending Biden to Asheville and Charlotte next week, so at the very least they’re keeping a toe in the water.
Asheville is 99% D, so that is a Gotv visit that may draw a crowd. Charlotte is a 2 mm metro, so they may get more than the 600 people that showed up last time Joe came to NC.
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