Skip to comments.Data Points-Hugh Hewitt
Posted on 09/28/2012 3:52:21 PM PDT by Signalman
Hugh Hewitt just stated, on his show, the following:
In 2008, GOP voters requested a total of 144,300 absentee ballots.
As of today, with 39 days left to go to the election, GOP voters in OH have already requested 145,400 absentee ballots, about a 1% gain.
In 2008 Democrat voters requested 288,270 absentee ballots.
As of today, Democrat voters have requested 177,000 absentee ballots. A drop of 38.5%
Voter Registration: Voter registration in Ohio is down 490,000.
44% of that drop is in Cleveland and Cuyahoga County, Democrat strongholds.
Ohio is going Romney.
I bet they'll vote anyway.
Ohio is going Romney.
that is what some of us have been saying for many weeks.
while people like Rove were telling us the opposite.
May mean nothing but a wash. Or, some really POd Democrats.
This will just be proof that THE ELECTION SO STOLEN!
Rove has no idea.
So in my spreadsheet analysis I assumed a 50/50 break---even though the rule of thumb is that Indies go for the challenger.
You’re not following our thread on absentees. The percentages have changed dramatically. We’re talking sea change if these hold up. Franklin, which went for Obama by 21 points, now has over 5500 R advantage in requested absentees. That’s unheard of. Red counties, which were up by 10 points for McCain, are now coming in 2:1, 3:1. Hamilton, which went for Obama, will clearly go Romney. Follow the thread. There’s some great stuff there.
Those are signs of rampaging carnage just like in 1994 and 2010. Note both times the sleeping conservative-moderate giant woke up and rampaged at the polls, being terrified by what they saw from new leftist administrations.
Democrats have a higher death rate ~ which sounds strange doesn't it, but it's true, and with 40% of their field voting strength being black folks, should suggest a much higher death rate than almost any other group.
So, there'd be a decline in the number of older black voters asking for absentee ballots.
Two numbers ~ one going up, one going down ~ and that would easily account for the observed phenomenon.
What you want to find is a massive drop off in the Democrat yout' vote ~ they've had another 4 years of joblessness ~ might be tired of it ~ or 'that ol' fruit don' mean nothin' ('bama doesn't care) ~ and they might just sit out the election entirely ~ which is normal behavior for 'yout'.
We beat them in the voter suppression game apparently ! (Bwahahahahahaaaa!)
So, when you cut through all that, the statistics we have seem pretty staggering: Dem registrations down, huge. Absentee requests by Rs up, huge. When you throw in registration declines with underperformance, you have the makings of a pretty solid Romney victory here. Absentee requests by Dems down, significantly.
One more reason that your “black/older” theory doesn’t hold up so well: we are seeing this change/phenomenon across every single county, not JUST in urban or “black” counties, and not just in older but also in Franklin, with OSU, and Hamilton, with three universities.
They have voters to waste!
For some unaccounted reason we failed to do a massive "Republican" voter registration drive, and lord only knows what's in line for 'Get out the Vote' ~ we don't even have campaign signs around here for anyone.
4 years is a long time for the older folks ~ those death rates are substantially higher than for the 30-55 range. Remember, the first Boomer was born in 1947 ~ 66 years ago ~ http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/09/21/health/a-troubling-trend-in-life-expectancy.html?ref=us ~ interesting display, but it says 65 is toward the top end for blacks! Frankly, i think the big deal is loss of older black voters because they moved to the other list ~
I agree a national GOP registration drive would be nice, and by the way in most states, yes, the GOP did have big registrations in 2011-2012.
But nobody ever has "voters to waste," and these numbers, as I will state for the umpteenth time, show that ACROSS THE BOARD, EVERYWHERE, EVERY COUNTY Dem underperformance by significant to huge levels. I don't know how else to explain that they WON Franklin Co. by 21 points and in percent absentees are now trailing by 5!!!!!!
That's a 26 point swing, and those "voters to waste" would be eaten up in one or two big states at that rate.
Finally, this 9.7 million figure, as I've shown you before, is heavily padded in three states that we do not need or care about---CA, IL, and NY. when you take Obama's edge out there, the 9m evaporates.
Ghetto isn't the word ~ but they even have Somali operated gas stations!
Some of us don’t want to think it’s that big a deal :) But I know what you mean. Still, I think that the “early voting” phenomenon of 2008 convinced a lot of non-older voters it was ok to vote absentee, though probably not in huge numbers.
Seriously? Ugh. UD isn’t that bad . . . yet. I will say that we have had a very, very significant influx of Muslims, and I find it troubling at a supposedly Christian school. If the goal were to convert them, that would be one thing. But I don’t think that’s the goal.
10 million is a lot of difference to make up ~ but I can see the black "spike" dying off at a phenomenal rate during the period of hardships created by the Obama regime. Put those old people in fear of getting medical care and their high hypertension rate ought to be taking them out left and right.
With the black voters being 40% of effective Democrat voting strength in states where there are many black voters (The blue states), broad changes in the black demographic should show as a major impact on the Democrat voting base.
Add to that older black people driven to near madness through ROBOCALL abuse and there you have it ~ maybe 20% of black people who voted in 2008 aren't going to vote this year because they can't ~ except through supernatural intervention.
It simply isn't required for them to be discouraged.........
Hey, don’t “ you guys” me-—I like Dickie. I think he knows polling, but is particularly bad at prediction (which concerns me). So explain the “robopoll” thing. Why would that in particularly upset blacks?
What city was this?
Fairfax county ~ some with a Springfield address and some of the state senatorial district with an Alexandria address (which is not really part of Alexandria ~ the postal service area is larger than just that city) ~ the robocall system activated at every level in the DNC command structure overcalled ~ lot. I’d imagine the Dems did this to their black supporters in 2011 elections ~ just another one of their failed ideas.
Don't forget all the PO'd conservatives that want to disassociate from the Republican Party. I'd wager that most in that category will vote Romney just to dump Obama.
It's not too late.