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Election prediction (vanity)

Posted on 10/07/2012 4:43:23 PM PDT by wrhssaxensemble

So it's still early but any thoughts- as objective as you can be on it- about who will win the presidential election and what the house and senate breakdowns would be? For president, what do you think the Electoral vote will be and why?


TOPICS: Chit/Chat
KEYWORDS: 2012; election; obama; romney

1 posted on 10/07/2012 4:43:30 PM PDT by wrhssaxensemble
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To: wrhssaxensemble
My 2cents prediction map 287 Romney-251 Obama

Predicting 50-50 Senate and 245(R)-193(D) House

2 posted on 10/07/2012 5:02:42 PM PDT by icwhatudo (Low taxes and less spending in Sodom and Gomorrah is not my idea of a conservative victory)
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To: wrhssaxensemble

3 posted on 10/07/2012 5:03:11 PM PDT by TornadoAlley3 (Obama is everything Oklahoma is not.)
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To: wrhssaxensemble
The more I think about November 6, the more I think the final electoral college map will look like the Bush/Cheney win of 2004: 2004 Electoral College Map, Real Clear Politics. My only changes would be Wisconsin Romney, New Mexico Obama. Still a win for Romney. Now if New Hampshire goes for Romney, it could be a wipeout.
4 posted on 10/07/2012 5:10:23 PM PDT by Art in Idaho (Conservatism is the only hope for Western Civilization.)
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To: wrhssaxensemble

Romney >380
Obummer <140


5 posted on 10/07/2012 5:11:18 PM PDT by ReaganÜberAlles
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To: icwhatudo

We take the Senate with - of all places - Konnecticut putting us over the top when Linda McMahon beats Murphy in a nail-biter.


6 posted on 10/07/2012 5:17:29 PM PDT by Psalm 73 ("Gentlemen, you can't fight in here - this is the War Room".)
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To: Art in Idaho

I agree with your assessment. Great minds and all that.

I think we’ve got this, but I have overestimated the American people before, sadly. I can’t believe Obama ever got elected. I can’t believe anyone but pure lunatics are still planning to vote for him. I simply can’t believe it.


7 posted on 10/07/2012 5:22:50 PM PDT by Persevero (Homeschooling for Excellence since 1992)
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To: Art in Idaho

Oh how wonderful that would be. can you just imagine Obuma giving a concession speech???


8 posted on 10/07/2012 5:26:00 PM PDT by uncitizen
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To: wrhssaxensemble
Here's my prediction for election night.
9 posted on 10/07/2012 5:34:53 PM PDT by Stonewall Jackson ("I must study politics and war that my sons may have liberty to study mathematics and philosophy.")
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To: wrhssaxensemble

Romney wins. We keep the House. The Senate will be tied, with Ryan casting the deciding vote.


10 posted on 10/07/2012 5:43:15 PM PDT by youngidiot (The name's Bond. James Bond. James Bond Jovi.)
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To: uncitizen

He doesn’t have to give a concession speech. All he has to do is lose. Looking forward to it.


11 posted on 10/07/2012 5:43:32 PM PDT by ntnychik
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To: Psalm 73

Writing Brown in Mass off as a loss? He seems to be quite a bit behind Warren (the idea of her as a senator horrifies me)


12 posted on 10/07/2012 5:47:04 PM PDT by wrhssaxensemble (We need an electable conservative in 2012!)
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To: wrhssaxensemble

13 posted on 10/07/2012 5:48:31 PM PDT by Revolting cat! (Bad things are wrong!)
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To: uncitizen

Do you think he’d even give one? I can’t see him giving a respectful one if he does... He will probably either attack the electoral process or the Americans who voted against him (he’ll pretend they are all millionaires who hate the middle class)in the process


14 posted on 10/07/2012 5:49:17 PM PDT by wrhssaxensemble (We need an electable conservative in 2012!)
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To: uncitizen; Art in Idaho

I keep picturing a petulant BO muttering the words “The people have spoken...”


15 posted on 10/07/2012 5:54:35 PM PDT by thecodont
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To: wrhssaxensemble
Writing Brown in Mass off as a loss? He seems to be quite a bit behind Warren (the idea of her as a senator horrifies me)

My gut tells me that Massachusetts is one of the few states in the nation where Osama Obama will have "coattails" and I fear that it's those coattails will carry her to DC.

16 posted on 10/07/2012 5:55:09 PM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Ambassador Stevens Is Dead And The Chevy Volt Is Alive)
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To: wrhssaxensemble

Its very possible he would just refuse to give the concession speech, or that he’d just release a statement or something. He’s a sore loser. Worse than that. He Can’t tolerate even being called wrong, let alone being called a loser. So all the campaign workers may have to settle for a speech from Michele or something like that. The man doesn’t deserve to be labeled as a man.


17 posted on 10/07/2012 5:56:18 PM PDT by uncitizen
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To: youngidiot
Romney wins...

Not impossible but highly unlikely.See post #16.

18 posted on 10/07/2012 5:57:11 PM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Ambassador Stevens Is Dead And The Chevy Volt Is Alive)
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To: wrhssaxensemble

R&R: 320EVs. Don’t ask me why but for the past month that number has been in my mind.


19 posted on 10/07/2012 6:00:09 PM PDT by Signalman
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To: wrhssaxensemble

CONNECTICUT
I predict that the team of VOLS I work with ... we will be out campaigning from 6 a.m. to 8 p.m. on behalf of conservatives in tight races for the state House. And helping Linda McMahon for Senate.

That is all I predict now. Perhaps we get somebody new in the state House who would not have won without us. But only by the grace of God.

I am also predict that regardless of the outcome, the God-fearing people will regroup and come back for another round in ‘14.


20 posted on 10/07/2012 6:00:32 PM PDT by campaignPete R-CT (and we are still campaigning for local conservatives in central CT.)
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To: Stonewall Jackson

Oregon, although only 7 votes, would be a nice catch for Romney. Is this prediction based on recent polls?


21 posted on 10/07/2012 6:04:58 PM PDT by Signalman
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To: wrhssaxensemble

The Presidential race will be super, super tight, like 2000 & 2004. I think Romney will win by 1-2%.

Basically, you have to look at the swings from election to election; those prediction a Romney landslide are not being realistic. Yes, in 1980, Reagan won by 9%, but Carter had won in 1976 by only 2%. So that was an 11% swing in one election.

Reagan won 1984 by 18.2%, so that was an R+9 swing.

In 1988, Bush won by around 7%, so that was an 11 point swing toward the Dems.

In 1992, Clinton won by 5.5%, so that was a 12.5% swing to the Dems.

In 1996, Clinton won by 8.5%, so that was another 3 point D swing.

In 2000, Bush lost popular vote by 0.5%, so that was an 8 point swing to the R.

In 2004, Bush picked up 3 points, for a 2.5% win.

Obama won 2008 by 7, so that was a 9.5% swing.

As you can see, the swings have gotten shallower. Bush’s 2000 win, swinging 8% toward the Republicans is probably the most realistic for us. That would translate to a 1% Romney win.


22 posted on 10/07/2012 6:06:55 PM PDT by paglia444
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To: Stonewall Jackson

That is one purty looking map there

:)


23 posted on 10/07/2012 6:44:15 PM PDT by Irish Eyes
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To: Signalman

No, it’s based on talking with my cousin and some friends who live in Oregon. There are a lot of people in the Portland area who voted for Obama who are planning on staying home on Election Day. They won’t vote for Romney, but also won’t support Obama this time around.


24 posted on 10/08/2012 7:01:08 AM PDT by Stonewall Jackson ("I must study politics and war that my sons may have liberty to study mathematics and philosophy.")
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