Skip to comments.Election prediction (vanity)
Posted on 10/07/2012 4:43:23 PM PDT by wrhssaxensemble
So it's still early but any thoughts- as objective as you can be on it- about who will win the presidential election and what the house and senate breakdowns would be? For president, what do you think the Electoral vote will be and why?
Predicting 50-50 Senate and 245(R)-193(D) House
We take the Senate with - of all places - Konnecticut putting us over the top when Linda McMahon beats Murphy in a nail-biter.
I agree with your assessment. Great minds and all that.
I think we’ve got this, but I have overestimated the American people before, sadly. I can’t believe Obama ever got elected. I can’t believe anyone but pure lunatics are still planning to vote for him. I simply can’t believe it.
Oh how wonderful that would be. can you just imagine Obuma giving a concession speech???
Romney wins. We keep the House. The Senate will be tied, with Ryan casting the deciding vote.
He doesn’t have to give a concession speech. All he has to do is lose. Looking forward to it.
Writing Brown in Mass off as a loss? He seems to be quite a bit behind Warren (the idea of her as a senator horrifies me)
Do you think he’d even give one? I can’t see him giving a respectful one if he does... He will probably either attack the electoral process or the Americans who voted against him (he’ll pretend they are all millionaires who hate the middle class)in the process
I keep picturing a petulant BO muttering the words “The people have spoken...”
My gut tells me that Massachusetts is one of the few states in the nation where Osama Obama will have "coattails" and I fear that it's those coattails will carry her to DC.
Its very possible he would just refuse to give the concession speech, or that he’d just release a statement or something. He’s a sore loser. Worse than that. He Can’t tolerate even being called wrong, let alone being called a loser. So all the campaign workers may have to settle for a speech from Michele or something like that. The man doesn’t deserve to be labeled as a man.
Not impossible but highly unlikely.See post #16.
R&R: 320EVs. Don’t ask me why but for the past month that number has been in my mind.
I predict that the team of VOLS I work with ... we will be out campaigning from 6 a.m. to 8 p.m. on behalf of conservatives in tight races for the state House. And helping Linda McMahon for Senate.
That is all I predict now. Perhaps we get somebody new in the state House who would not have won without us. But only by the grace of God.
I am also predict that regardless of the outcome, the God-fearing people will regroup and come back for another round in ‘14.
Oregon, although only 7 votes, would be a nice catch for Romney. Is this prediction based on recent polls?
The Presidential race will be super, super tight, like 2000 & 2004. I think Romney will win by 1-2%.
Basically, you have to look at the swings from election to election; those prediction a Romney landslide are not being realistic. Yes, in 1980, Reagan won by 9%, but Carter had won in 1976 by only 2%. So that was an 11% swing in one election.
Reagan won 1984 by 18.2%, so that was an R+9 swing.
In 1988, Bush won by around 7%, so that was an 11 point swing toward the Dems.
In 1992, Clinton won by 5.5%, so that was a 12.5% swing to the Dems.
In 1996, Clinton won by 8.5%, so that was another 3 point D swing.
In 2000, Bush lost popular vote by 0.5%, so that was an 8 point swing to the R.
In 2004, Bush picked up 3 points, for a 2.5% win.
Obama won 2008 by 7, so that was a 9.5% swing.
As you can see, the swings have gotten shallower. Bush’s 2000 win, swinging 8% toward the Republicans is probably the most realistic for us. That would translate to a 1% Romney win.
That is one purty looking map there
No, it’s based on talking with my cousin and some friends who live in Oregon. There are a lot of people in the Portland area who voted for Obama who are planning on staying home on Election Day. They won’t vote for Romney, but also won’t support Obama this time around.
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