Skip to comments.Curious thing about the PPP poll that has Obama up by 5 in Ohio.
Posted on 10/13/2012 6:43:03 PM PDT by Jaguarmike
That same poll shows Romney up by five among independents. And yet this poll has a D+4 sample. That might be a little high, but it's not as outrageous as some of the others.
So how is this possible? Because to me, the numbers don't add up.
Does this have something to do with the early Ohio voting that shows Obama ahead 2-1? Yet, I've also read that Romney leads by five or six among likely voters.
And how does all this jibe with the early voting turnout numbers we've seen on this board = that show a depressed Dem turnout?
Any answers that could be given would be appreciated. I'll just state that if Romney leads with independents, I think he'll win.
I'm confused on this
A Democrat pollster.
The Dems doing their usual lying, cheating and stealing? Along with rampant voter fraud? IIRC, Ohio had around 200,000 fraudulent voter registrations in 2008. The case went to the SCOTUS and they didn’t rule. Those 200,000 fraudulent voters voted. Ironically, Obama won Ohio by around 200,000 votes.
It’s a Garbage In-Garbage Out poll. Also, the 2-1 Early Voting number is a BS Dem rumor since they don’t even begin to count the ballots until election day.
Romney can win without Ohio ...he needs Colo, Iowa, and either Wisc or Minn ...assuming he gets VA, FL, etc. He’s in a strong position and at the rate he’s going OH is not do or die anymore, although I still think he’ll win it.
I think PPP’s job is to spin and stretch reality in a favorable light for Obama. And in this case, I think reality is a close race yet to be decided upon last minute persuasion and motivation.
“Does this have something to do with the early Ohio voting that shows Obama ahead 2-1?”
WOW,, BREAKING NEWS! They are counting votes already? Can you source this??
Most pollsters charge for their accuracy, PPP charges for their results.
All they have to do is pick a “likely voter” scenario that gives a result the Dems like and run their responses through it.
I think the reality is he may lose Ohio, and if he does will he win some other states republicans haven’t won in a long time? There’s a reason Romney and Ryan are spending most of their time in Ohio.
And this means the future of the nation may hinge on an electorate foolish enough to reelect Obama.
Let’s face it Obama and Biden are a joke, and this great bell weather state might choose them. Oy.
False flag operation they are presuming a blowout among the absentee ballots cast thus far, perhaps presuming that the absentee turnout results would mirror 2008?
Of course the ballot request this year are far different than 2008 based on party. Total garbage.
The rats need to stem the perceived Romney monmentum that has even people like Silver conceding that the race is up for grabs.
This is going to be a blowout as per the CU economic prediction.
We can reconcile this with the actual data. Two questions that need to be answered:
1. What percentage of their registered sampling has early voted, versus the percentage of actual registered voters that have actually voted?
Answer: According to GMU, it looks like only 3% of Ohio’s 7.8M voters have actually voted. So why are they 20% of the RV sample in PPP?
2. How does the registration of those sampled early voters compare with actual early voter records?
Answer: Assuming all Ds vote for Obama, and assuming Is make the difference, PPP’s sampling of early voters shows that Obama has captured every Democrat, every Independent, and a good portion of Republican.
The specious early voting claims also distort the likely voter screen.
This discussion of flawed methodology of course assumes that they are even polling anyone at all, and not just making up numbers. Not accusing them, but what would keep them - or any pollster - from doing something like that? I seem to recall that Daily Kos had a pollster who got making up results that would always show the Democrat with a ridiculous lead.
With the shape this country is in economically and internationally Obama shouldn’t be above 40%
Voters are pathetic
I want people in Ohio to think Obama is up by 5. The RATS will figure they’ve got it in the bag and stay home, and the Republicans will GOTV like never before.
Right. Polls are schizophrenic this year. That we *do* have some semblance of a fact check in the form of early voting data, and that early voting data is contradicting what is in the polls, is just one more piece of evidence why.
Best to ignore them. The VP debate will be the Democrats’ last hurrah, IMO.
No, in the poll 19% say they have already voted amd 76% of those say they voted Obama. I don’t know what to make of that either.
The poll is completely bogus. It states that 20% of voters have already voted, based on 2008 vote totals, that would be over 1,000,000 votes already cast. Consider this:
1. In 2008, only 30% of votes were cast early, or about 1.7 million votes. Early voting has only been open since October 2nd, and will be open until Election Day, so at the pace this poll suggests, 80% of votes will have been cast by Election Day, or 4,500,000 votes. Does that seem reasonable to anyone?
2. On October 5, the Ohio Secretary of State sent out a memo saying that 59,000 people had voted in person, and as of October 12, only 175,000 absentee ballots have been returned according to George Mason University, which is tracking requests/returned ballots. Since voting started October 2nd, if it kept up the same pace as the first 4 days (2nd-5th) that’s 180,000 in person at this point, for a total of 355,000 total ballots cast. So this poll is overstating the number of early voters nearly 3 times based on actual, verifiable data from the Ohio secretary if state. If that’s true, even if early voters are favoring Obama by a 50 point margin as PPP indicates (which is unlikely), they actually constitute approximately 6% of all voters.
3. The poll states Romney leads 51-45 amount those that haven’t votes. If we use the data from this poll, but weight it correctly (6% have voted, not 20%) and assume there are 100 votes:
Early vote: 6% at Obama 76% and Romney 24% = 4.56 for Obama, 1.44 for Romney
Not voted : 94% at obama 45 to Romney 51% = 42.3 Obama to 47.94 Romney
Total: 46.86 Obama to 49.38 for Romney
I’ll bet pollsters know how to manipulate the numbers and the subjects to get the desired results - who to call, when to call, etc.
For example, there are enough cross-registrants (people who say they are registered R’s but vote D, or vice versa) to tweak any poll. I’m sure the less ethical ones, like PPP in my opinion, know exactly who and where these people are and the best time to reach them.
Ford got 48.02% of the vote; Hoover got 39.65% of the vote.
Honestly, with Kasich as gov being a staunch conservative and Obummer’s war on coal, I don’t see how Obozo wins OH...
Maybe delusional but I just don’t see it.
Only way I see is with massive voter fraud. Esp. with the early voting and absentee ballots.
Close friend who is college prof has studied PPP polls for years; and told me to subtract 3 from the Dem and add 3 for the GOP candidate — quite consistent.
So the real number today from PPP is 49 Romney and 48 Bam-Bam.
Ohio is still very close.
NC is firm Romney, FL likely Romney, VA lean Romney.
yup, sounds right to me too
Starting to believe that there is no realistic path to either candidate’s victory without OH
The VP debate was a big win for Romney and here is why
The talking points have been
Cutting M1 tank production in Ohio
Lying about Libya
Biden acting like a buffoon
And, of course, RCP wastes NO time in putting up the bogus PPP poll in OH, and the bogus BRC poll in AZ.
The Obama camp claims all the money they have spent in Ohio, and all the benefits they reaped from the auto bailout make Ohio “sticky”.
Apparently that is supposed to mean that no matter what movement towards Romney we might see in other states, Obama’s numbers in Ohio won’t budge an inch.
I find that theory extremely hard to believe, but PPP’s numbers seem to support it. I am hopeful another, more reputable company, releases their poll numbers for the state very soon and blows it out of the water.
Bottom line for me is that until Romney starts registering some solid leads in the Buckeye state, I will have an uneasy feeling heading into election day.
Who is Adrian Gray?
“Ohio is still very close.”
Which makes it very curious that the kenyan is taking a four day break away from the campaign trail to do his debate homework. Barry is ceding the spotlight at a critical time to R&R in places like OH. Unbelievable!
PPP is saying Obama is winning the early vote by over 3-1 (76-24). It would appear then, that Romney is winning the late vote by something like 53-47.
The story gives no details about methodology so there’s no way to know how they came up with 76-24 for Obama. You would think a result like that would raise their eyebrows.
Bush campaign insider who had access to all internal info and compares it to today. Very interesting twitter feed.
Also, another note on that PPP poll. It has 1 out of 9 registered Republicans choosing for Obama and less than half that rate of Dems choosing for Romney. In 2008 McCain won more Dems than Obama won Repubs, making this poll a bunch of malarkey.
The PPP poll has 1 out of 9 registered Republicans choosing for Obama and less than half that rate of Dems choosing for Romney. In 2008 McCain won more Dems than Obama won Repubs, making this poll a bunch of malarkey.
PPP = Push Pander Poll......
Keep in mind that Barack Obama actually received 30,000 fewer votes in Ohio than John Kerry!
The reason Obama won the state is McCain received 350,000 fewer votes than George Bush.
Republicans just have to turn out to win—hence, the repeated attempts to discourage Romney voters in Ohio by methods such as this poll.
It really blows my mind that a state that elections Walker in Wisc or Kasich in Ohio would vote for Obama for Pres. I realize you get more voters in a Presidential year, but still....
Ignoring anything he said (as much was lies) the problem with Obama in the first debate was his demeanor. He won’t have the (exact) same problem in this debate as it is a different format. The times I’ve seen video of him on the trail, he seems most animated when he is being nasty and sarcastic. He he tries that, he’ll look AWFUL to ordinary people.
Evidently they only called people on Obamaphones.
In 2004, OH had Ken Blackwell as Sec State (?)...
He seemed to keep the lid on things...
Don’t know who the person is now...
Hope he/she is a “friendly”....
Polls are declared to be within the stated margin of error 19 times out of 20. This might just be the 20th.