Skip to comments.Intrade O-61.5/R-38.5 (vanity)
Posted on 10/14/2012 9:27:04 AM PDT by tatown
(Excerpt) Read more at m.intrade.com ...
Yes Intrade is often wrong I just don't understand what is drive the direction!
Intrade? That’s the same outfit that showed the USSC striking down Obamacare, isn’t it?
Didn’t they show Scott Walker down also??
Yeah because polls showed him down. The polls are showing Obama down yet Intrade suggests that he’s the clear favorite.
intrade MEAS NOTHING
IT is only a measure of how many people put money one way or another
If enough stupid people put money on Obama then his number goes up. It would not take a lot of money to make it move that way, and is probably cost effective advertising
Ohio is what is holding Obama’s support up.
Until some polls show Romney with a legit lead there, it is believed to be Obama’s firewall.
Before the first debate, Obama had ballooned to near 80%. I ascribe Obama’s lead on InTrade to two things. First, polls for months say voters *expect* Obama to win even as many say they favor Romney, so this it should be no surprise that many still expect Obama to win.
Secondly, the people with money today are union workers and Washington bureaucrats (the folks who really got fat during the recession), which are the ones who are Obama’s biggest fans.
It’s also noteworthy than any cold analysis of electoral votes would conclude Obama is in better shape than Romney. Romney has to draw practically an inside straight to win the election by taking 7-8 states that Obama won in 2008. There’s maybe 10-11 states up for grabs. So it is not unrealistic to think that even Romney voters can see Obama has an easier road to victory than Romney has.
That must be it.
Intrade is usually a few days behind reality. Just before the debate O80 and R20. So what we have here is a something that proves that Romney has massive momentum!
If Romney wins the popular vote he WILL win the election. The chances of him losing while winning the popular vote is very low.
I'm becoming F-ing sick of these polls!
As someone mentioned all it takes is a George Soros putting a small portion of his enormous wealth on the Communist/Islamist.
Buyers and sellers are holding up this market — nothing keeping you from going in and lifting Romney at these offers.
The stock market is, if anything, pricing in an even greater chance of Obama’s reelection. You would be seeing very different trading levels for hospitals, oilfield services, coal, proprietary education (Univ. of Phoenix type outfits), payday lenders, and coal companies if the market thought Romney was likely to win.
As for why? Here’s what financial market “policy” experts are telling their clients:
Most significantly, the “electoral lock” — that Obama could lose the popular vote by as much as two or maybe even three points and get 270+ Electoral Votes. Essentially, a lot of Romney’s improvement in popular vote polling is pushing him to closer, but still losing, tallies in the upper midwest, to unnecessarily large landslide victories in the South and lower midwest, and to less significant landslide defeats in New York, Illinois, etc., where Obama’s not even bothering to go after middle class white voters he doesn’t need.
Obama will recover in his debate performance, at least in the spin. (That Biden’s sideshow act got scored no worse than a loss-on-points and as draw or win by some, is a good example). Not sure if this is right.
Mainstream media bosses (CNN, NBC, CBS, ABC, and the liberal papers) are seriously regretting letting up a bit on Romney in trying to keep things interesting, and are preparing an all-out push for the last three weeks to re-elect the President, with at least a couple of “October Suprises” to hurt Mitt, in addition to the typical alarmism. This is certainly correct.
Romney and the independents have fatal McCain-itis and won’t go seriously negative on Obama in the last few weeks. This is probably correct too, alas.
The enthusiasm gap is illusory, and Obama will lose few of his low-propensity young and minority voters from 2008.
Presumably the numbers depend on how many people place actual bets on the candidates, if this is anything like the horses.
What this shows, I suspect, is that stupid liberal jerks are anxious to play the slots and to blow all their money on losers. Conservatives have more sense.
When it was 3-to-1, it was sucker money. At 4-to-6, I think it’s off, but not badly. I’m thinking, right now, it’s a 50-50 election or very close to it. But, considering the dealer’s rake, 4-to-6 doesn’t offer enough to re-double my bet. I just hope the odds drift closer to 50-50 before Tuesday’s debate, when I’ll lock-in my profit.
Conservative Romney voters don’t gamble.
The entire pool is just a few hundred thousand US dollars. Worry not.
Here is a true story about political markets:
Before there was Intrade, there was the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM). Supposedly, there were very savvy players participating, and it was watched closely by political commentators. I participated in the IEM starting in 1998, and I did well with my predictions of Fed decisions and elections, and so by the 2004 election, I had a kitty of nearly ten thousand dollars.
In the 2004 election, I decided to put my personal, clandestine “Operation Chaos” into action. Over a period of a few months, I bought up a very large portion of the Kerry contracts for a meager price. I continued buying right up until the Dem convention.
During Kerry’s speech at the convention, I had FR open in one window and IEM in another. Roughly halfway through his speech, I began unloading. I had buyers come in to stop the bid from taking, but my amassed inventory of Kerry contracts was far in excess of the attempt to support the Kerry market. Over a period of a few hours, the probability of Kerry winning had slipped by 20 points! And of course, I had just sold a little sliver of my inventory. I continued to pound down the Kerry market on every rally attempt.
Several commentators (e.g. Larry Kudlow, Don Luskin, Mickey Kaus) commented on what looked like manipulation during the primaries and the conventions on IEM. I considered writing them to say that there really was manipulation, and I was doing it! But I didn’t want to kill my golden goose.
By election night, I had sold off all of my Kerry contracts. When it looked for about 30 minutes that Bush had lost Ohio, I bought up as many Bush contracts as possible!
Needless to say, I cleaned up (multiplied my $9500 by 3x) on the 2004 election. I retired from IEM, since I knew that I was being watched by the administrators, and maybe even the FEC...
Intrade is the equivalent of a bar bet, albeit a few thousand of them. It is nothing but a small number of people trying to make money on the outcome.
It is thinly traded, and the total amount is small enough that it can be easily manipulated.
Furthermore, it's technically illegal for US residents to bet at Intrade, so the majority of bettors are people OUTSIDE the US, and have no understanding of the electorate than what they read, hear, or see on the news.
Just stop it. It doesn't mean anything.
This thing is a racket !
It’s an off shore illegal betting pool run out of Ireland .
It’s pack full of foreigners and illegal funds .
It’s like offshore poker .
Its a rigged game with no us laws governing it
So you can be ripped off and nothing can be done .
It has ZERO meaning on any election activity .
I keep warning people it’s a real shady operation from Ireland
And just lawless operation .
Whining? Hardly a$$hole, I’m trying to figure out wtf is holding the Kenyans numbers above 60, when EVERY bit of new out there shows the race either tied or tilted towards Romney.
BTW, it’s a vanity if you don’t want to read it, then move the eff along.
“What in the hell is holding up Obama’s support”
Foreigners reading European newspapers....
Obama has all the electoral votes in Europe and Middle East tied up....
Remember when I said it's the equivalent of a bar bet? The only thing holding up Obama's bet price is pride.
There isn't any rationality in these bets. It's all emotional. And any rationality goes out the window when someone is willing to spend a $100,000 or so to swing the market in the desired direction for their own purposes.
Read the posting by someone who did exactly that with only $10,000 in the Iowa Electronic Market in 2004.
BTW, its a vanity if you dont want to read it, then move the eff along.
No, it's what is called a "concern troll". Knock it off.
There is absolutely an opportunity to make money on intrade right now.
Obama voters appear to have currently spent some (advertising) funds on intrade. They started to bail a couple days ago but recently doubled-down.
Could not swear that is the case, but it very well could be.
I’m not signed up there, but an investor could make a lot of money on intrade by buying in ahead of this Tuesday’s debate.
There is nothing shady or lawless about Intrade. It is legal in Ireland. However, it is not legal for US residents to bet there, while in the US.
At betting parlors in the UK, you can bet on all kinds of things. Not just sports, but elections, weather, science, and all kinds of events. Check out the list of markets on Intrade, and you’ll find lots of interesting things and you will wonder who would bet on some of them.
But, no one should think they predict anything. All Intrade does is provide a service to gamblers.