Skip to comments.Intrade: Obama 65%, Romney 35%: how come? splain it to me pls
Posted on 10/17/2012 8:44:43 AM PDT by beebuster2000
I dont get it. Intrade saying Obama a prohibitive favorite. not even close. why?
They had the Fraud up by FIVE TO ONE just a few weeks ago.
Investors take cheating into account.
Intrade is easily manipulated. Keep in mind that intrade was above 75% in favor of obamacare being ruled unconstitutional.....we all know how that worked.
Setup... a contest with a prearranged outcome... or at least the attempt...
The predictive powers of tea leaves, belly button lint, and Intrade are approximately equal.
In other words, who cares.
They are betting on the ‘spirited’ Obama performance will boost the actual voting from his base.
Save the Left from massive forgery, micky mouse might get caught way too many times.
I’ve been asking the same thing for the past week or so. Late last week he Obama dropping into the high 50’s and has slowly been moving up since then. I DO NOT GET IT!!??
What information out there are people using to get them to BUY Obama contracts >60??
Evidently Obama’s fans are fonder of gambling than Romney’s fans. The numbers are based on the customers’ bets, not on what the Intrade people think.
Looks like an opportunity to make a little coin to me...
This is a UK based gambling site, not a liquid market. These numbers don’t mean squat, and I’m surprised RCP uses them!
Romney traded at around 20% on Intrade just two or three weeks ago.
If you didn’t buy then, then don’t complain now.
He briefly went up as high as 41% a few days ago, but has gone down again since last night’s “debate”.
As always, if you think the other investors are wrong, then there’s money to be made.
Or, of course, Soros and similar folks may be laying a lot of money on the Bamster, just to manipulate the numbers.
Since InTrade requires that “investors” actually purchase shares and trade them, for real money, no one in the US can participate any longer. So, the odds are driven by people outside the US. Having lived overseas for many years, I don’t believe folks in other countries just don’t understand the subtleties of our politics. They certainly don’t “get” the electoral college and our form of federalism. I know, for instance, that Israelis are convinced that Obama can’t lose.
Easy to manipulate Intrade as shown here:
Sorry, I meant to write “I dont believe folks in other countries understand the subtleties of our politics.” Ignore the double negative.
What percentage of the Obama warchest do you estimate it would take to push the Intrade price on his winning up, say 20 points? Not very much.
I’m guessing the Intrade price is now ‘Rat propaganda, which suggests it’s time to buy Romney on Intrade if you’re into such speculation with your money.
Don’t know, don’t care.
I’m busy knocking on doors and trying to get the vote out.
Intrade had also the Patriots beating the NY Giants in the Super Bowl - both times.
Obama is such a weak candidate that the Dems and foreign supporters there pulling out all stops to get him elected, including manipulation of the polls and Intrade.
I also include the possibility that somebody is pumping and dumping.
They may not mean ‘squat’ in terms of predictive accuracy but they sure as hell mean something when it comes to their propaganda effect. I’ve seen Intrade used by the MSM and if to the uniformed ‘voter’ is helps to maintain the inevitability of Obama’s pending win.
I happen to think Intrade's wrong in this case, and that Romney is priced very cheaply (if I had an active Intrade account, I'd buy as much Romney as I could at ~35, and would have bought even more a few weeks back at ~15-20). But, it's important not to conflate the predicted chance of victory with the predicted margin (which Intrade does not address).
The same people that bet on Intrade buy lottery tickets. And they vote Obama.
Intrade is the equivalent of a bar bet -- albeit a few thousand of them bundled together.
Most of those bets were made long ago. The only thing holding them up is pride, i.e. unwilling to concede at this point.
Legally, US residents can't bet at Intrade, at least from within the US. So, most of the people betting there are outside the US, and know nothing about the election than what the media tells them.
Stop worrying about it. It doesn't matter. You can bet on all kinds of things at Intrade, including the weather, earthquakes, and which Supreme Court justice will resign next.
Intrade doesn't predict anything. It's simply a bunch of people gambling on something besides sports or casino games.
I mean, If I bet on Romney with such low numbers (odds?), don't I win more than if I bet on a favorite (and assuming HE wins) ?
Two weeks ago I went to the site with the intent of buying contracts. The registration was a nightmare and included asking me to send a copy of my passport. I’m not doing that and my guess is most good American conservatives share my feelings causing the market to not reflect the true feelings of most in the USA.
Mormons don’t gamble?? So they are betting on the Obama voters EBT/Food Stamp money to be gambled on Obama....LOL
Intrade is open to foreign investors, many of whom are incredibly ignorant about American politics.
I guarantee that most Europeans have no idea who Romney really is, and are pretty ignorant of Obama as well other than he’s black and sucks up to them. And those who do know are political junkies and have their biases.
Leftists like to ridicule Americans as ignorant of the world, but other countries are just as ignorant,except the reality is that they have to know who is President out of the necessity of American influence in the world.
Agree. I’m guessing they need your passport info to confirm you’re not a US citizen. I’d buy a lot of Romney if I could.
If I had to guess, the people currently buying Obama contracts probably view Romney's surge in the polls following the first debate as a temporary bump, rather than a structural change in the race (or, if they think Romney's chances have increased, they think the decrease in the price of Obama contracts has out-paced the decrease in Obama's chances). If that's your view of the race, I could see how Obama contracts would look cheap now, at least relative to where they were before the first debate.
Intrade had repeal of Obamacare at 75% two minutes before the opinion was published.
You nailed it perfectly. Since Americans can’t use Intrade this is about as insightful as Pravda. I don’t understand why anyone pays attention to this; it’s like taking polls of Europeans only.
I have seen this come up each time Intrade comes up and it doesn't make sense to me. It was struck down as unconstitutional. It was changed to a tax and then upheld.
You are correct. A $65 bet on Obama would pay $100 if he wins, a profit of $35, and a percentage gain of 35/65 = 54%. A $35 bet on Romney would pay the same $100 if he wins, a profit of $65, or 65/35 = 185%.
There are key businesses that have money to gain from being pro-Democrat, intrade is one of them. Honestly, I can summarize the following parts of our nation that are biased so bad to the Democrats they practically kiss their $%^
1) Wall Street
2) Any business that received a bailout
3) Majority of Unionized Labor
4) The majority of billionaires and multi-millionaires
That pretty much sums it up.
Isn’t that gambler disenfranchisement?
“Explain it to me”
Because it’s meaningless garbage.
Glad I could help.
Americans cannot legally use it. I’ve noticed that it more or less tracks Nate Silvers’ prediction percentages.
Bottom line is who cares.. They had Kerry at 90% on Election Day 2004.
What is “a prohibitive favorite”?
It was not struck down as unconstitutional. It was upheld as constitutional. The Court said congress did not have authority under the commerce clause to force people to buy insurance, but did have the power under the taxing clause to impose a penalty upon them for failure to do so.
Anyway, the purpose of my post was not to argue the merits of the Obamacare decision, but to illustrate as others have said that Intrade is not a good indicator of outcomes.
Your picking nits.
A Lefty is delusional and dumped a lot of cash into a bet.
If I put a billion dollars on the Jacksonville Jaguars to win the Super Bowl, they will be the odds on favorite in Vegas. Its that simple. Its all about money in the pot, that’s it.
But people still think he knows something. He basically correctly predicted Obama would win in 2008, in the easiest Presidential race to handicap since 1984, and somehow people think this makes him a genius.
But his model went UP on the same day that the Gallup poll showed Romney breaking 50% for the first time. A little secret sauce.
any consortium that can juice the Fed printing presses, rig an entire stock and energy market, at least try to tap the SPR to keep gas under $4 a gallon for another month, ask the Europeans to postpone a crash until after November, secretly conspire to open our borders by executive order, seize our wealth, cut MEDICARE by $700 BILLOON dollars an blame it on Paul Ryan, promise to pay off defense employers to break laws about layoff notices, and plan to unilaterally nuclear disarm the USA... all to further obamas chances of reelection....can rig an outfit like intrade
remember, for a fraud election to look plausible, it has to look like obama was going to win
This is a bookie operation
The stats go where the money it
It is easy to change this and people stupid enough to vote for Obama are also stupid enough to bet money on Intrade.
I think you could make a bundle this time
Intrade is garbage illegal offshore betting pool used by
Foreigners and crooks .
It is illegal in the US.
It is Not legally bound to any rules and thus a
Shady Scam run out of Ireland to avoid
Any laws !
Do not even bother to look at it !
It means nothing !