Skip to comments.Gallup poll shows Romney up 6; too large a gap for Obama comeback?
Posted on 10/17/2012 5:27:43 PM PDT by Signalman
The latest Gallup seven-day tracking poll released Wednesday shows a jump in support for Mitt Romney, giving him a slightly wider lead over President Barack in the final weeks before Nov. 6.
According to the latest poll, Romney leads Obama among likely voters, 51 to 45 percent. This is Romney's biggest lead since Gallup began tracking likely voters earlier in Oct., as well as his largest lead in the survey. Romney also leads among registered voters, 48 to 46 percent.
The data in the survey is a rolling seven-day average through Oct. 16 and therefore does not reflect data from after Tuesday's town hall presidential debate.
"So it's mid-October and Romney is up 6 in Gallup," Ben Smith of Buzzfeed tweeted after the poll was released. "So the (common wisdom) should be that he is going to be president, yes?"
Greg Sargent of The Washington Post responded, tweeting back that polling averages not one poll should be the basis for common wisdom.
A closer look at other Gallup data released Tuesday shows that Obama's support since 2008 has dropped the most among voters in the South, 30- to 49-year-olds, those with four-year college degrees, postgraduates, men and Protestants. Obama has also slipped among whites, Easterners, women and Catholics, while his support is roughly the same among 18- to 29-year-olds, seniors, nonwhites and voters in the West and Midwest.
Before the debate, Gallup showed the candidates' favorability ratings among registered voters nearly tied, with Romney at 52 percent favorability and Obama at 51.
Gallup's historical standards suggest it would take a historic comeback for the president to win the election, with Romney's current six-point lead. Since Gallup started tracking in 1936, the only person to mount a comeback down six points on Oct. 17 was Ronald Reagan.
(Excerpt) Read more at deseretnews.com ...
Still 3 weeks remaining. Do not indulge in speculation.
I guess Gallup has decided that Romney is so likely to win that the Obama Administration’s lawsuit isn’t likely to be pursued past inauguration day.
Kind of funny.
No, not too large...this is where the Dem media pulls out all the stops...
And 0bama is no Ronald Reagan.
Even if Gallup says we're six ahead... let's keep working like we're six behind anyways.
:Greg Sargent of The Washington Post responded, tweeting back that polling averages not one poll should be the basis for common wisdom.”
Oh horse manure — the RCP average of polls can in no way average all the polls together — different days, different sample sizes, overweighting of Democrats in several polls but not in others, different ways of collecting the samples.... and on and on.
It’s a charade, and I’m surprised no statisticians have called them on it.
Pick an historically accurate poll (Rasmussen, Pew) and stick with it.
A few years ago someone said, “If it ain’t close they can’t cheat.” We can’t get complacent.
freep a poll please
I don’t trust Gallup at all, they could have boosted Romney’s numbers until after the debate, then to show an 0bama “comeback”.
Keep in mind, the election is happening NOW in many states due to early voting, it is conceivable that if Romney really is six points ahead, even if everything went perfect for Obama and he moved into a tie or small lead by election day he could still lose because of all the votes that have been cast since the first debate.
Anyone know the R/D/I breakdown?
Never underestimate a cornered Rat.
Assume nothing. This is just one poll. Yes, it`s encouraging, but 20 days remain... much can happen in that timeframe.
The debates have only proved that Obama can't run on likability so, the most dangerous time of the campaign season is now, and R2 had better be ready for it, or get out in front of it.
KEEP WORKING like we are 10 POINTS DOWN!!!!
Figure in at least 5% voter fraud and Obama is 1% point ahead.
Romney’s doing very well up to now but he’s got to do a lot better.
Exactly! That's a recipe for a landslide what you just said!
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